[11th July 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: India’s Demographic journey of hits and misses

PYQ Relevance:

Mains: 

Q) What are the salient features of the National Food Security Act, of 2013? How has the Food Security Bill helped in eliminating hunger and malnutrition in India? (UPSC IAS/2021)
Q) Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail.  (UPSC IAS/2020)

Prelims:
India is regarded as a country With a “Demographic Dividend” This is due to (UPSC IAS/2011)
(a) Its high population in the age group below 15 years.
(b) Its high population in the age group of 15-64 years.
(c) Its high population in the age group above 65 years.
(d) Its high total population.

Note4Students: 

Prelims: World Population Day; Demographic Dividend;

Mains:  Demographic Dividend; Poverty; Mortality; Food Security;

Mentor comment: Over the decades, the world has seen significant demographic changes, with declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy globally. India has also made notable progress, with fertility rates falling below replacement level and improvements in maternal and child health indicators. However, population dynamics continue to pose challenges that require attention and proactive measures. As the world approaches the 2030 target for the Sustainable Development Goals, understanding a country’s population trends is crucial to tailoring solutions and driving progress.

Let’s learn!

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Why in the news? 

The day July 11, was established by the United Nations as the ‘World Population Day’ in 1989, to raise awareness about global population issues and their impact on development, the environment, and individual well-being.

World Population – Then and Now:
1. The decades of the 1960s and 1970s were scary as the global population was growing at a yearly rate of 2%. 
2. The Total Fertility Rate of the world has dropped from around five children per woman in 1950, to 2.3 children per woman in 2023. 

About Malthus Theory of Population
1. Thomas Malthus’ Theory of Population, proposed in 1798, posited that population growth would outpace food production, leading to widespread famine and poverty.
2. He believed population grows exponentially while food production increases linearly. However, advancements in agriculture and technology have prevented the catastrophic outcomes he predicted.

India’s population dynamics – The main components:

  • Fertility: According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1. 
  • Mortality: There has been a significant drop in the mortality rate as well. The average life expectancy of Indians has also increased over time.
  • Aging Population:  India is experiencing a demographic shift, towards an aging population. According to the 2011 Census, individuals aged 60 years and above constituted 8.6% of the total population. The figure is projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050. 
  • Migration: 
    • Urbanization: Rapid Rural-to-Urban migration is straining urban infrastructure.
    • Gender Equality: Women’s labor force participation and political representation are crucial for sustainable development
But what do these changing dynamics signify?

India’s population dynamics are intertwined with its ‘development’ scenario. The reduction in fertility signifies a transition toward smaller family norms.  It has many implications for the Social Development as follows:

Demographic Dividend: A smaller dependent population can lead to a larger working-age population, potentially boosting economic growth.
Healthcare and Living Standards: Declining mortality rates and increasing life expectancy indicate improvements in healthcare and living standards.
Population Ageing: Requires long-term planning for geriatric care and social security benefits.
Gender Equality: Women’s labour force participation, which is straggling, their notable absence from Political representation, and their unending plight within society. Ensuring women’s rights and participation is essential for sustainable development.

India’s Journey towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  • Poverty Reduction (SDG 1)
    • The population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% to 10% between 1990 and 2019.
    • Government Initiatives:
    • Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) was critical in addressing rural poverty.
    • Janani Suraksha Yojana (2005) increased institutional deliveries and reduced health expenditures for poor families.
  • Food Security and Nutrition (SDG 2)
    • India became self-sufficient in crop production after the Green Revolution hence, the proportion of the population suffering from hunger reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021. However, India still contributes a third of the global burden of malnutrition.
    • Government Initiative:
    • POSHAN Abhiyaan (2018) aims to improve nutrition, but achieving ‘Zero Hunger’ by 2030 remains challenging.
  • Health Improvements (SDG3)
    • Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
    • Under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate significantly reduced post-2000s. Improvements in quality and coverage of healthcare, but still need to reach targets.

What needs looking into?

  • Population Dynamics: India needs to harness demographic dividend by creating job opportunities for the youth by addressing the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and strengthening social safety nets.
  • Nutrition: The government needs to increase budgetary allocation for health and nutrition sectors and strengthen nutrition programs to address malnutrition.
  • Gender Equality: Empowering socio-economically the section of vulnerable women and adopting a gender-equal approach in policy and development initiatives.
  • Collaborative Approach: Encouraging a multi-sectoral collaboration and ensuring a strong political will to drive progress efficiently.
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