Note4Students: 

Mains: Reason behind the declining India’s influence in South Asia;

Mentor comments:  Since the start of this decade, India has faced a series of shocks in its neighborhood. In 2021, the coup in Myanmar and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan set the stage. In 2022, the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan in Pakistan and the riots that forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa out in Sri Lanka added to the turmoil. More recently, electoral changes in the Maldives and Nepal have replaced India-friendly governments with less cooperative ones. With Sheikh Hasina’s dramatic exit in Bangladesh, India is now urgently reassessing its approach to safeguard against future upheavals in South Asia.

Let’s learn!

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Why in the News? 

Hasina’s removal from power in Bangladesh is no doubt a dramatic setback for India, as both countries have transformed ties on every front in the past decade and a half. 

Key lesson for India: 

• Engage with All Political Stakeholders: India must broaden its diplomatic engagement to include all political parties in Bangladesh, particularly the opposition, such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).  
• Monitor and Respond to Local Sentiments: India should enhance its intelligence and diplomatic capabilities to monitor local sentiments and political developments in Bangladesh more effectively. This includes understanding the socio-political dynamics and public opinion, which can provide critical insights into potential unrest or shifts in governance.  
• Reassess Strategic Partnerships: India needs to reassess its strategic partnerships and avoid over-reliance on any single government or political party.  
• Promote Democratic Values and Human Rights: India should advocate for democratic values and human rights in its foreign policy, emphasizing the importance of free and fair elections and the protection of civil liberties.  

Loss of Reputation:

• Reputation as a Dependable Partner: India’s reputation as a reliable ally in the region suffered a setback after the fall of Kabul when it refused visas to hundreds of Afghans fleeing the Taliban. Many of these individuals were senior defense and security officials who had risked their lives for Indian diplomats.
• Pragmatism in Supporting Allies: Despite the potential complications, India wisely allowed Sheikh Hasina to stay in the country after her removal from power, recognizing that turning its back on an old ally would have been a betrayal. This approach is necessary to maintain long-term relationships in the region, where political leaders often return to power.
• Future Diplomatic Challenges: The continued presence of Sheikh Hasina in India could complicate ties with any new government in Bangladesh, especially if they request her extradition or perceive the Awami League as regrouping in India.

Communal Lens:

• Faulty Assumption of Religious Ties: The good diplomatic ties in South Asia are somehow linked to shared religious majorities. For example, Hindu-majority Nepal has been a challenging relationship for India, while Buddhist-majority Bhutan and Muslim-majority Maldives have often been among its closest allies.
• Impact of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA): The Indian government’s introduction of the CAA, which fast-tracks citizenship for non-Muslims from Muslim-majority countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh), has backfired across the region. It has strained relationships not only with the countries directly mentioned but also with others in the neighbourhood.

Erosion of Pan-South Asian Mechanisms: 

1. Boycott of SAARC by India: India has boycotted the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit for a decade now due to bilateral issues with Pakistan. This has led to the stagnation of the regional grouping and its inability to address common challenges.
2. Abandonment of BIMSTEC: There are concerns that India may abandon the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) if ties with Bangladesh worsen, similar to its stance on SAARC. This would further erode regional cooperation mechanisms.

Implications for India

1. Loss of Influence in the Region: The erosion of pan-South Asian mechanisms has diminished India’s influence in the region. Countries like Bangladesh are now more open to engaging with other powers, reducing India’s ability to shape regional dynamics.
2. Vulnerability to External Interference: The absence of effective regional cooperation platforms has made South Asian countries more vulnerable to external interference from global powers like the United States and China. Their rivalries can now play out in the region without sensitivity to India’s interests.
3. Deprived Economic Opportunities: The lack of regional integration has deprived India and its neighbours of potential economic benefits through increased trade, investment, and connectivity. Reviving mechanisms like SAARC could unlock significant economic opportunities for the region.

Way Forward for India

1. Reviving Pan-South Asian Mechanisms: India must take the lead in reviving pan-South Asian mechanisms like SAARC and finding ways to engage with its neighbours without external interference. This would require addressing bilateral issues and prioritizing regional cooperation.
2. Balancing Relations with Global Powers: India needs to strike a balance in its relations with global powers like the United States and China. It should avoid being drawn into its rivalries and instead focus on pursuing its own interests in the region.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-shock-effects-of-south-asian-tumult/article68521412.ece