Mentor’s Comment:  China views its strength and diplomacy in critical minerals strategically, emphasizing its dominance and leveraging its resources as a political tool. China controls approximately 60% of global rare earth production and 80% of processing, positioning itself as a critical player in the mineral supply chain. This dominance allows China to exert significant influence over global markets. China perceives U.S.-led initiatives to diversify critical mineral supply chains as a containment strategy.

On August 15, 2024, China announced restrictions on antimony exports effective September 15, citing national security concerns. In today’s editorial, we will observe how China aims to remind the West of its dependency on Chinese minerals, particularly for high-tech applications.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

On August 15, 2024, China announced it would restrict the export of antimony, a key mineral used in military equipment like missiles and ammunition. 

• The Chinese government cited national security as the reason for this decision.  This follows earlier curbs on gallium and germanium.

How do these export controls reflect China’s response to geopolitical tensions?

• Response to U.S. Actions: China’s recent export controls are seen as retaliatory measures against U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology and trade practices. This reflects a broader geopolitical struggle between the two nations.
• Strategic Leverage: By controlling the supply, China is asserting its influence and demonstrating its willingness to use economic tools as leverage in geopolitical conflicts.
• Japan Precedent: The 2010 halt of rare earth exports to Japan following a maritime incident illustrates China’s readiness to employ export controls as a means of exerting pressure during diplomatic disputes.
• Regional Security Dynamics: China’s export restrictions highlight the vulnerabilities of countries like the U.S., EU, India, and Japan, which rely heavily on Chinese minerals for their defense and technology sectors, prompting these nations to reconsider their supply chain dependencies.

What was the objective behind this move?

• Military Assertiveness: Alongside economic measures, China has increased military drills and assertive posturing in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly concerning Taiwan.
  • This dual approach of economic control and military readiness signals a comprehensive strategy to counter perceived threats from the U.S. and its allies.
• Multipolarity Advocacy: China’s actions are part of a broader narrative promoting a multipolar world order that challenges U.S. hegemony.
  • By using export controls strategically, China aims to reinforce its position as a dominant power in global affairs while advocating for regional cooperation free from external interference.

How China is turning its Foreign Policy Posture?

• Future Ambitions: According to China’s Natural Resource Minister Wang Guanghua, China plans to enhance its mineral exploration and capacity over the next five years, signaling ongoing ambitions to consolidate its resource dominance.
• Strategic Dependency Reminder: Restricting access to strategic resources is a traditional tactic in statecraft, similar to the U.S. oil embargo against Japan in 1940.
• Weaponization of Resources: China has transitioned from politicizing critical minerals to weaponizing them, using export controls as a political tool against the West.
• Targeting Dual-Use Applications: Critical minerals used in military applications, such as those needed for submarines and fighter jets, are prioritized in China’s export controls.
• Shift from Cooperation to Coercion: The approach has shifted from cooperative strategies to aggressive and coercive tactics, indicating that export restrictions will likely increase as relations with the West deteriorate.

India’s Vulnerability due to dependence on China

• Strategic Dependence: India relies heavily on imports of critical minerals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper from China, resulting in high costs.
  • The U.S. is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals and is exploring domestic production options.
• Call to Action: The situation serves as a wake-up call for Indian policymakers to take proactive measures, such as forming partnerships with allied countries and investing in alternative supply chains to reduce dependency on China.

Conclusion: The ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that China may continue to leverage its control over critical minerals as a tool for both economic gain and political influence, potentially escalating conflicts with Western powers if tensions persist.