[2nd September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: ​A silent democratic backlash in South Asia 

PYQ Relevance:

Q ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC IAS/2022)

Q Critically examine the compulsions that prompted India to play a decisive roles in the emergence of Bangladesh. (UPSC IAS/2013)

Q The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India? (UPSC IAS/2013)

Q Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Pakistan borders including the Line of Control (LoC). Also, discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC IAS/2020)

Mentor comment: India’s engagement with its neighbors is crucial for navigating the complex political landscape in South Asia. India’s timely financial bailout to Sri Lanka demonstrates its commitment to regional stability, yet it also reflects the challenges of managing relationships in a volatile environment. India must respect the democratic choices of its neighbours, avoiding interference that could harm relationships, as seen in past interactions with Maldivian leaders. 

The article emphasises that India must adopt a more sustained and nuanced approach to engagement with its neighbours to support democratic processes and counter external influences effectively. India’s developmental support is a vital tool for fostering goodwill and stability in the region, as seen in its projects that have benefited local populations.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

India requires “more sustained engagement” with neighbours to navigate the complex political landscape, implying its current level of engagement is insufficient to fully shape outcomes.

India sometimes overestimates its influence in its neighbourhood for a few key reasons:

  • Political Crises in Bangladesh and Maldives: In cases like Bangladesh and Maldives, India failed to anticipate political changes and did not engage sufficiently with new governments. This shows India misjudged the situation and its influence.
  • Financial Crises in Sri Lanka: While India has had some successes, like bailing out Sri Lanka financially, events have often spiraled out of its control in places like Myanmar and Bangladesh. This indicates limitations to India’s regional influence.
  • Afghanistan’s Taliban: India anticipated the Taliban’s return but was sidelined by the U.S. in engagement efforts, now facing fallout.
  • Myanmar’s Military Rule: The military regained control in February 2021, complicating India’s position as conflict spills into its northeastern states.

When things go wrong in the neighborhood, India engages in “unwarranted self-flagellation“, believing it could have prevented negative outcomes if it had acted differently. This suggests India credits itself too much in its ability to shape events.

What is India’s Response to Neighborhood Challenges?

  • India’s missteps and misjudgments have cost it in some cases, while events have spiraled out of control in others due to external factors.
  • India has provided a financial bailout to Sri Lanka, has engaged patiently with the new Maldivian government, expressed willingness to work with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and re-extended friendship with Nepal.
  • Myanmar and Bangladesh pose serious challenges given their centrality to India’s interests.
    • In Myanmar, India needs to engage with ethnic groups in addition to the military and NLD to prevent civil war.
    • With Bangladesh, India requires a new understanding with parties, including those unfavorable to India, to keep external anti-India forces at bay.
Strategies for India to Strengthen Ties with the New Maldivian Government:

Engage proactively: India should have engaged with President Mohamed Muizzu earlier, instead of being caught off guard by his huge election win in 2024.
Respect democratic processes: India should respect the democratic choices of the Maldivian people, and interfering in internal affairs or pressuring leaders can backfire, as seen with President Nasheed in 2008-12.
Expand cooperation areas: India should explore new avenues like trade, investment, tourism, and people-to-people ties can strengthen the relationship.
Maintain bipartisan outreach: India has built bridges across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka, while a similar approach in the Maldives can help India navigate political transitions smoothly.
Leverage developmental support: India can continue to provide aid and implement projects that benefit the Maldivian people can deepen goodwill.
Coordinate with allies: India should coordinate its Maldives policy with allies like the United States, Japan, and European nations. This collective influence can make India’s outreach more effective.

Conclusion:

India’s developmental support has been underestimated as a bedrock for fostering closer ties with neighbours and their people. India needs more sustained engagement with its neighbours to navigate the complex political landscape and support democratic processes.

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