Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains has always focused on Regional Geopolitical Issues (2024) and India’s Development and Growth on the International stage (2018, 2022, & 2023).

Global Economists predict that India’s GDP growth will average around 6.5% to 7% in 2025, despite a slowdown observed in late 2024. As India steps into 2025, the economic landscape presents a mix of optimism and challenges. 

Today’s editorial outlines the key aspects shaping India’s outlook for the coming year, focusing on growth projections, inflation management, and geopolitical influences. This comprehensive content can be used in your Mains answer writing while discussing the Global uncertainties and changing geopolitics, where India’s Growth trajectory is affected.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

The year 2024 was characterized as a “global elections supercycle,” with over 70 countries, including major economies, scheduled to hold elections. 

• This political climate is expected to generate significant regulatory and policy uncertainty in 2025, impacting international relations and economic strategies across the globe.

What are the new Economic and Political uncertainties in the World?

• Economic Landscape: India is recognized as one of the leading nations in terms of economic growth and political stability, that demands an atmosphere of peace amidst global turmoil.
  • Inflation Issues: Inflation remains a crucial concern, impacting consumption and overall economic stability. Policymakers must navigate these pressures while encouraging investment.
  • Migration and Unemployment Issues: Addressing structural challenges such as job creation is critical, especially given the need to generate millions of jobs annually until 2030.
• Political Landscape: The year 2024 witnessed significant political uncertainty worldwide, with ongoing conflicts in regions like Europe and West Asia, notably the Gaza crisis and the Ukraine conflict.
  • Global Major Powers: India’s democratic and globalized trajectory will be influenced by the changing political stability, with increase in right-wing policies and frameworks in western world from the new US administration to the European Union.
  • Geopolitical Tensions with China: Recent border negotiations with China have led to some disengagement at the Line of Actual Control, but the underlying border dispute remains unresolved. 
  • In September 2024, China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI) and deepen cooperation in areas. (steps to outmaneuver India in international forums)
  • China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October. 

How will South and West Asia make a major eclipse in regional Geopolitics for India? Current Situation in South Asia: India faces increasing isolation in South Asia, particularly after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, leading to questions about India’s neighborhood policy. • Nepal and Sri Lanka are perceived as “fair weather friends,” while relations with the Maldives remain uncertain. Pakistan continues to be antagonistic, and Afghanistan is not a priority for India. • Bhutan appears to be balancing its relations with India and China under its current leadership. Challenges in West Asia: • Impact of Syrian Developments: The ouster of the Assad regime in Syria is expected to have significant repercussions for the region, including implications for India. • Rise of Sunni Groups: The takeover by the Sunni group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) may shift regional dynamics, especially as it aligns with the Sunni majority in Syria. Regional Implications • Dismantling of Alliances: The changing power dynamics could weaken the so-called “axis of resistance,” affecting Iran’s influence and potentially diminishing support for groups like Hezbollah.• Israel’s Position: Israel may emerge stronger amid these changes, while the pro-Palestine movement could face setbacks.

What are the further strands on Technological challenges?

• The digital threat landscape is expected to escalate significantly in 2025, necessitating urgent attention and warnings about potential dangers.
• In late 2024, India experienced a notable increase in cyber attacks, including denial of service and ransomware incidents targeting major companies and government institutions.
• This trend is projected to grow exponentially, posing unprecedented risks to national infrastructure due to the convergence of various technologies.

Conclusion: India must navigate this complex geopolitical landscape carefully, as both Political as well as Technological issues undergo significant transformations that could affect its regional influence and security.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-outlook-for-india-in-the-year-ahead/article69065160.ece