Mentor’s Comment:  The United States is a dominant global power with the largest economy and military. Its foreign policy decisions significantly shape international relations, impacting everything from trade agreements to military alliances and conflict resolutions.

The U.S. has been instrumental in establishing and maintaining key international organizations like the United Nations, NATO, and the World Bank, which play crucial roles in global governance and stability.

Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States following his recent electoral victory refers to the anticipated policies and implications on global geopolitics especially in present West Asian crises.

Today’s editorial discusses the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency for the Middle East, particularly in light of recent conflicts and his previous foreign policy actions. 

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is making headlines for several reasons, reflecting both the implications of his policies and the broader impact on U.S. society and global geopolitics.

Trump’s Past Foreign Policy Record in West Asia: Pro-Israel Stance: Trump’s first term was characterized by strong support for Israel, including: Moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem; Recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights; Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Abraham Accords: Initiated normalization between Israel and several Arab nations, aimed at countering Iran.

What changes can be expected in U.S. foreign policy towards Israel and Palestine under Trump?

• Strong Support for Israel: Trump is likely to continue robust Military and Diplomatic support for Israel. For example, he may endorse Israeli military actions in Gaza, similar to his previous encouragement for Israel to “finish the job” against Hamas during conflicts.
  • Trump may recognize sovereignty by reaffirming policies like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and supporting Israeli claims over territories such as the Golan Heights.
• Limited Engagement with Palestinians: The USA is expected for a continuation of the previous administration’s approach, which involved cutting funding to the Palestinian Authority and sidelining Palestinian voices in peace negotiations.
  • For example, a New Peace initiative (one-sided) is likely to favor Israeli interests, similar to the “Peace to Prosperity” plan released in 2020, which was criticized for not adequately addressing Palestinian rights.
• Regional Relations and Normalization: Trump may push for more Arab nations to normalize relations with Israel, building on agreements with countries like the UAE and Bahrain by expanding Abraham Records. This could further isolate the Palestinian cause.
  • Secondly, we can expect an aggressive policy towards Iran, including sanctions and military support for Israel against Iranian influence, like Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.
• Domestic Politics and UN Considerations: While maintaining strong ties with Israel, we must remember that Trump may prioritize domestic concerns over international engagement, reflecting a growing isolationist sentiment within the USA’s Republican Party (particularly among Arab and Muslim communities).

How will Trump’s policies affect U.S.-Iran relations and Regional stability?

• Resuming Aggressive Policies: Trump is likely to reintroduce stringent economic sanctions on Iran, which previously led to a significant drop in Iranian oil exports.
  • Expect increased military readiness and potential strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, similar to the targeted killing of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
• Nuclear Program Implications: U.S. support for Israeli military actions against Iran could provoke retaliatory measures from Tehran.
  • For example, Iran may respond to renewed sanctions by further advancing its nuclear program, moving closer to weapons capability.
• Shifts in Regional Alliances: Increased backing for Israel may lead to more aggressive actions and proxy conflicts against Iranian interests, heightening conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
• Economic Consequences for Iran: Renewed sanctions could lead to further currency depreciation in Iran and increased public discontent due to economic instability. Iran may boost military spending, straining its economy further.

What implications does Trump’s “America First” policy have for India-U.S. engagement?

• Economic and Trade Policies: Trump’s protectionist “America First” agenda may lead to higher tariffs on Indian goods, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. This could strain trade relations, as India relies heavily on exports to the U.S.
  • Stricter Immigration policy changes to H-1B visa regulations could significantly impact India’s IT sector, raising costs for Indian firms that depend on access to the American labor market.
• Strengthened Defense Ties: Trump is expected to maintain strong defense cooperation with India through frameworks like the Quad (with Japan and Australia), and with India’s security needs against China. India may benefit from increased U.S. support in countering Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • Hence, Trump’s policies may create opportunities, but they also pose challenges due to potential economic friction from protectionist measures and immigration restrictions.
• Relations with Russia: Trump’s pro-Russia stance suggests that India will face less pressure to distance itself from Moscow.
  • While previous U.S. administrations have criticized India’s defense ties with Russia, Trump may adopt a more pragmatic approach, focusing on other strategic aspects like defense cooperation without pressing India on Russian relations.

Way Forward: India might need to navigate a complex landscape as it balances its longstanding ties with Russia against growing relations with the U.S., especially if Trump adopts a less confrontational stance towards Russia compared to previous administrations.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-west-asia-under-donald-trump/article68837509.ece