Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains is recently focusing on growing Chinese dominance in West and Central Asia (2024) and the power play struggle between the USA and China (2022).

China has been using its ‘slicing strategy’ of debt trap to evolve as a global power by countering the USA and its ‘String of Pearls’ theory to circle out Indian activities.

Today’s editorial explores the implications of the China-Nepal-India trio, the ongoing negotiations, and the need for a sustained dialogue. This content can be used to represent Chinese dominance in regional geopolitics and the challenges arising due to it.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

The recent agreements between Nepal and China mark a significant step in the regional geopolitics of South Asia, particularly under the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

• While the signing of these agreements is a positive development, India must continue negotiations to ensure effective implementation and address potential challenges due to Chinese dominance in the region.

Recent Developments in Nepal-China Relations:  In December 2024, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli concluded a four-day official visit to China, during which several key agreements were signed, including a framework cooperation agreement related to the BRI. Key Points of the Nepal-China Agreements: • Framework Cooperation Agreement: This agreement lays the groundwork for various infrastructure projects, including: – Tokha-Chhahare Tunnel; – Hilsa Simkot Road Project; – Kathmandu-Khandbari Road; – Kimathanka Bridge; – Cross-border railway project from Rasuwagadhi to Kathmandu; – Amargadhi City Hall. • Focus on Implementation: The Nepali government emphasized the importance of not just signing agreements but also effectively implementing them. Past experiences have shown that while many agreements were signed, tangible progress on the ground has been limited. • Investment Modalities: The negotiations included discussions on financing modalities, with a shift from strictly “grants” to more flexible terms such as “aid.”This change aims to facilitate broader investment opportunities from various sources, including private sectors and international financial institutions.  Challenges Ahead for Nepal-China Relationship: • Implementation Gaps: Historical precedents indicate that many signed agreements have not translated into actionable projects. There is a pressing need for both governments to focus on practical steps that will lead to real-world outcomes. • Project-Specific Negotiations: Future negotiations are expected to be project-specific, which may complicate the overarching framework if not managed effectively. Clear communication and defined objectives will be essential in these discussions. • Geopolitical Considerations: As Nepal navigates its relationships with neighboring countries like India and global powers such as the United States, balancing these interests while engaging with China will require careful diplomacy.

What were the substantive statements in Parliament on India-China relations?

• Troop Disengagement and Temporary Measures: The External Affairs Minister highlighted the successful disengagement of troops following China’s military buildup and India’s counter-deployment, mentioning that temporary and limited measures were implemented at certain friction points to prevent further clashes.
  • However, he noted that these measures could be revisited as needed, indicating that while disengagement is a priority, the situation remains fluid.
• Ongoing De-escalation Efforts: The Minister reiterated India’s stance that maintaining peace in border areas is essential for developing bilateral relations, suggesting that current troop deployments indicate that normalcy has not yet been restored.
• Cautious Optimism in Bilateral Relations: The Minister indicated that while there has been some improvement in India-China relations following recent developments between Nepal-China, significantly remains a challenge.
  • He cautioned against expecting a major reset in relations until the border situation stabilizes and structural issues are addressed, particularly regarding economic security concerns with China.

What are the several key questions that remain unanswered?

• Unclear Disengagement Terms: While disengagement is declared complete, India lacks clarity on its specifics.
  • Questions remain about access to traditional patrolling points in Depsang and Demchok, the concept of “coordinated patrolling,” and the implications of “temporary steps” that limit patrols and grazing rights for Indian troops.
• Status Quo Concerns: The Minister stated that India will not accept unilateral changes to the status quo, yet China has altered it since April 2020.

• Discussions with military officials suggest restricted access to traditional patrol points, highlighting a shift in how both countries view the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• India should prioritize restoring the previous status quo in patrolling and grazing activities.

• Chinese Patrols in Arunachal Pradesh: Reports indicate that Chinese troops are attempting to patrol areas like the Yangtse, despite previous assertions that such demands were unreasonable. If no quid pro quo exists in this sector, it should be firmly denied.
• Call for Restoration of Status Quo: The Army Chief emphasized returning to the status quo of April 2020, while the Ministry of External Affairs has shifted its language away from this goal. Accepting changed ground realities would play into China’s strategy of gradual territorial gains without provoking outright conflict.

What strategies can both countries employ to bridge this political divide?

• Diplomatic Engagement: Regular high-level meetings and dialogues, such as those initiated between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, can help rebuild trust.
  • Both nations should prioritize discussions on strategic issues beyond border conflicts, including economic cooperation, climate change, and technology.
• Cultural and Economic Exchanges: Resuming direct flights, easing visa restrictions for citizens and diplomats, and promoting cultural exchanges (like film screenings) can enhance people-to-people connections.
  • This approach can foster goodwill and mutual understanding, essential for improving bilateral relations.
• Institutional Frameworks: Establishing mechanisms for coordinated patrolling and joint military exercises can help manage tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • Additionally, creating platforms for multilateral discussions involving other regional players can facilitate broader cooperation and address shared security concerns.