Context

• Despite the Russia-India-China triangle reconciling on a shared vision and responsibility for the future of Eurasia, watchfulness resurfaces behind the curtains.
• Unveiling the Russian edition of India’s ‘Look East, Act East’ policy, PM Modi pledged to extend a $1 billion Line of Credit to Russia’s Far East region (RFE).

History of the duo

• The relations between Russia and India are an important and privileged strategic partnership.
• The relationship began with a visit by Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru to the Soviet Union in June 1955.
• During the Cold War, India and the Soviet Union (USSR) had a strong strategic, military, economic and diplomatic relationship.
• After the collapse of the USSR, Russia inherited its close relationship with India resulted in the special relationship.

The Partnership

• Traditionally, the Indo-Russian strategic partnership has been built on five major components: politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism co-operation and space.

1. Strategic Relations

• India is the second-largest market for the Russian defence industry.
  In 2017, approximately 68% of the Indian Military’s hardware import came from Russia, making Russia the chief supplier of defence equipment.
• The co-operation is not limited to a buyer-seller relationship but includes joint research and development, training, service to service contacts, including joint exercises.
• It has risen above a buyer-seller relationship with the joint ventures projects to develop and produce the
• Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Multirole Transport Aircraft.
  In October 2018, India inked the historic agreement worth US$5.43 billion with Russia to procure four S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence system, the most powerful missile defence system in the world ignoring America’s CAATSA act.

2. Economic Relations

• Bilateral trade between both countries is concentrated in key value-chain sectors.
• These sectors include highly diversified segments such as machinery, electronics, aerospace, automobile, commercial shipping, chemicals, pharmaceuticals etc.
• Both countries set a target of reaching US$30 billion in bilateral trade by 2025.

3. North-South Transport Corridor

• The North-South Transport Corridor is the ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia.
• The route primarily involves moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia via ship, rail and road.
• The objective of the corridor is to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali etc.

4. Energy Sector

• Energy sector is an important area in Indo-Russian bilateral relations.
• In 2001, ONGC-Videsh acquired stakes in the Sakhalin-I oil and gas project in the Russian Federation and has invested about US $1.7 billion in the project.
• Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project with two units of 1000 MW each is a good example of Indo-Russian nuclear energy co-operation.
• Both sides are considering the possibilities of building a hydrocarbon pipeline system, connecting the Russian Federation with India.

5. Space Sector

• Historically, there has been a long history of cooperation between the Soviet Union and India in space. Ex. Aryabhatta, India’s first satellite.
• In Nov 2007, the two countries have signed an agreement on joint lunar exploration.
• Chandrayaan-2 was a joint lunar exploration mission proposed by the ISRO and the Russian Federal Space Agency (RKA).
• Both are collaborating for the scheduled Gaganyaan Mission.

Recent trends in bilateral ties

• Despite the best efforts divergences are growing in this bilateral relationship as the underlying structural changes in the international environment are pulling the two nations apart.
• Even in the past, the duo have tried to ground their bilateral relations in the wider realities of changing global balance of power.
• Now with the US under Trump upending the rules of global governance, there is renewed concern in the three capitals that their foreign policies need greater coordination, if only to preserve their equities in the global order.
• India, of course, has a long-standing relationship with Russia but that is undergoing a shift in light of rapidly evolving geopolitical realities.

Bilateral divergence

• While the top leadership of the two nations have continued to engage with each other, divergences have been cropping up with disturbing regularity.
• For India, what should be concerning is Russia’s increasing tilt towards Pakistan as it seeks to curry favour with China.
• Moscow had historically supported New Delhi at the United Nations Security Council by repeatedly vetoing resolutions on the Kashmir issue.

1. Military-defense Complex

• Russia is the dominant supplier of arms to India, with the historic military and defense ties between the two countries continuing to serve as one of the cornerstones of the India-Russia relationship.
• Strains are becoming apparent as India moves further along the path of military indigenization and import diversification.
• India’s procurement from the US and France has also been seen as a heated divergence between the two.
• This was a result of the unreliability of Russian supplies, as manifested in late arrivals, defective parts, and perennial conflicts overpricing and warranties.

2. Cultural Vacuum

• On an everyday level, while India films and yoga are popular in Russia, no parallel exposure to any aspect of Russian popular culture exists among Indians.
• This is the most woefully neglected aspect of their relationship, suffering on both sides from lack of funding and, no less important, a shortage of political will.
• Another aspect of ties is tourism which could be much more vigorous between the two countries than present India’s US affinity

3. India-US ties

• India’s engagement with the US addresses its core concerns regarding regional security.
• The signing of the long-awaited Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) is set to elevate the bilateral defence partnership and give India access to advanced U.S. defence systems.
• Another successful deliverable for India is Washington’s solidarity on the issue of terrorism expressed during the talks.
• The two sides “called on Pakistan to ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries.
• However, a closer engagement with the U.S. is a challenge for India, as this relationship is not likely to be a partnership of equals, for the foreseeable future.

Russia needs India as:

• A market for its goods to bypass Western sanctions imposed after its power push in Ukraine.
• The forthcoming Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership driven by the US will also force Russia to eye markets beyond Europe. India is a natural partner.
• Despite its renewed friendship with China, Russia will soon find itself in competition with it as Beijing regards itself as the new G2 along with the US.
• India can help provide the multi-polarity that Russia fiercely seeks.

India needs Russia because

• It can meet its abundant energy requirements at a cost-effective price.
• Despite expanding its defence purchases from the US, Israel and Europe, India still needs to collaborate with Russia to master future technology including for space.
• It improves India’s bargaining power when it negotiates arms sales with the West.
• Russia can be a major market for Indian industry such as pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods, dairy
• Products, bovine meat and frozen seafood.
• Geopolitically, Russia continues to be a balancing force against any designs China and Pakistan may have in our region.
• India is interested in expanding the level of trade between the two countries.
• An area of special interest for India is the exploration of hydrocarbon reserves along the coast of Russia’s Far East where India has decided to extend a $1 billion Line of Credit.
• This interest is seen as India’s attempts to not only keep a traditional friend close but to ensure some space in the current clinch between Russia and China.
• This act will be a powerful catalyzer to boost more fruitful cooperation between the two nations on a number of areas.
• New Delhi needs Moscow’s support in the former’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council

Recent Development:

• The Plenary Session of the 5th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) was recently held in Vladivostok, Russia.

Eastern Economic Forum (EEF)

• The EEF was established by a decree of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, in 2015.
• It aimed for supporting the economic development of Russia’s Far East, and to expand international cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.
• The recently held EEF Summit on September 2019 at the Far Eastern Federal University is the fifth in its history.
• Among the participants in the Summit are India, Malaysia, Japan, Australia, and South Korea.
• The Summits have roundtable conferences, panel sessions, business breakfasts, besides business dialogues and bilateral talks and agreements.

Achievements of EEF

• In the last five years, as many as 17 different countries have invested in the Far East, according to the EEF website.
• These include regional and global heavyweights like China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Vietnam.
• As a result, 20 advanced special economic zones and five free ports have been put in place.
• A total of 1,780 new investment projects, worth over 3.8 trillion rubles, and 230 new enterprises have become functional, the EEF website says.

India’s interest in the EEF

• PM Modi has described the EEF as a “historic opportunity” to give new impetus to the cooperation between India and Russia.
• He has said that the relationship between the two countries has “special chemistry, special ease”, even pointing out that Siberian cranes migrate to “my home state Gujarat”.

Line Of Credit for Russia’s Far East

• Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Prime Minister Mr Modi made the announcement of extending a $1 billion Line of Credit to Russia’s Far East region (RFE).
• It expected to help finance Indian business projects in the region, will be the “take-off point for Act Far East”, and will further strengthen bilateral ties.

How Far East is game-changer?

• The Far East has the potential to become an anchor in deepening India-Russia cooperation; more so considering that New Delhi has expanded the scope of its ‘Act East policy’ to also include Moscow.
• The area has the potential to strengthen India-Russia economic partnership in areas like energy, tourism, agriculture, diamond mining and alternative energy.

Extending to Act Far East Policy

• The PM recalled that India was the first country in the world to open a consulate in Vladivostok, and underlined the age and depth of the country’s relations with the Far East.
• Engaging closely with East Asia was in line with India’s policy goal of “Act East”.
• PM also unveiled the “Act Far East” policy to boost India’s engagement with Russia’s Far East region.
• This will also give a new dimension to our economic diplomacy.

Sea route from Chennai to Vladivostok

• During PM’s visit to Vladivostok this week, an MoU was signed to open a full-fledged maritime route between Russia’s eastern port city and Chennai on India’s eastern seaboard.
• Located on the Golden Horn Bay north of North Korea and a short distance from Russia’s border with China, Vladivostok is the largest port on Russia’s Pacific coast, and home to the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy.
• It is the eastern railhead of the legendary Trans Siberian Railway, which connects the far east of Russia to the capital Moscow, and further west to the countries of Europe.
• At Vladivostok’s massive port, shipping and commercial fishing are the main commercial activities.
• Automobiles are a major item of import at the port, from where they are often transported further inland.

To Chennai, by sea

• An ocean liner travelling from Vladivostok to Chennai would sail southward on the Sea of Japan past the Korean peninsula, Taiwan and the Philippines in the South China Sea, past Singapore and through the Strait of Malacca.
• It will emerge into the Bay of Bengal and then cut across through the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago to Chennai.
• This sea route covers a distance of approximately 5,600 nautical miles or about 10,300 km.
• A large container ship travelling at the normal cruising speed of 20-25 knots, or 37-46 km/hour, should be able to cover the distance in 10-12 days.
• At suboptimal “slow steaming” speeds of 18-20 knots (33-37 km/hour), at which long-distance vessels sometimes travel to in order to save fuel, it might take slightly longer — 12-13 days.

Need for a reset

• For India, the prism is different as it has to manage the negative externalities emerging from the rise of China in its vicinity.
• China-Pakistan nexus is proving difficult to contain as India gets ready to face a two-front challenge.
• China refuses to recognise Indian global power aspirations and has not yielded on key Indian security demands.
• As a result, while Russia may find cooperation with China as a perfectly legitimate response to its problems with the West, India does not have that luxury.
• Meanwhile India’s concerns are timely addressed by Russia its stated policy supports India receiving a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

What needs to be done?

• First and foremost, judging from a track record of multiple agreements and MoUs that have not led to tangible results.
• The recent comprehensive U.S.-India Strategic 2+2 Dialogue is a model to follow.
• There should be more meetings at the highest state level, regular annual reports on the progress of the working groups, and reinvigorated interactions.
• India’s cores strength is that it follows an independent foreign policy
• On its long way to become a global power, it will likely have to follow a zigzag course, balancing between American demands, long-term friendship with Russia and its own strategic necessities.
• It will sign defence pacts and conduct military drills with both the U.S. and Russia in an attempt to seize maximum opportunities from its relations with global powers.

Just relying on sentimentalism of the past won’t work anymore as new challenges confront India and Russia and the global geostrategic environment undergoes a profound reordering. Otherwise, putting all eggs in one basket might create overdependence on one partner and ultimately not serve Indian interests well.

References

https://www.civilsdaily.com/india-russia-relations/https://www.orfonline.org/research/russia-and-india-difficult-times-ahead/
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/looming-challenges-to-indias-standing/article28429662.ece
http://www.jsia.edu.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/katherine-re-energizing_0.pdf
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/bear-hug-on-india-strengthening-relations-with-
russia/article29355066.ece

Eastern Economic Forum

https://idsa.in/idsacomments/the-arithmetic-of-india-u.s.-relations-azakharov-170918