The economic grip China exerts on the world protects it from the threat of isolation. This article examines this issue and its implications for India.

Worsening U.S.-China ties and implications for other countries

• After years of cooperating with one another, the U.S. and China are currently at the stage of confrontation.
• Both are seeking allies to join their camps.
• This places several countries in Asia, in a difficult position as most of them, loathe to take sides.
• The U.S. may not necessarily be the first choice for many countries of Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.
• In the case of China, it is clearly more feared than loved.

China’s aggression

•  Beijing’s virtual takeover of Hong Kong has only confirmed what had long been known about China’s intentions.
• In March-April this year, China further stepped up its aggressive actions, renaming almost 80 geographical features in the region as an index of Chinese sovereignty.
•  Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea have all complained about China’s menacing postures in their vicinity.

How countries are resisting China

• Hardly any country in Asia is willing to openly confront China, and side with the U.S.
• East Asian countries explain that China was always known to be over-protective of the South China Sea.
• And China consider South China Sea a natural shield against possible hostile intervention by outside forces inimical to it.
• No U.S. assurance and Chinese aggression has been enough to make countries in the region openly side with the U.S. and against China.

China’s economic grip and lessons for India

• Despite a series of diktats from Washington to restrict economic and other relations, China remains unfazed.
• China seems confident that its stranglehold on the global economy ensures that it does not face any real challenge.
• It would be wise for India to recognise this.
• It is equally necessary to realise how fickle some of these countries can be when it comes to economic issues.
•  At a recent meeting in Washington Australia (a member of the Quad) made it clear that China is important for Australia.
• Likewise, the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, recently stated in its Parliament, that the U.K. wants a positive relationship with China.
• It is evident that few nations across the world are willing to risk China’s ire because of strong economic ties.

India’s relations with neighbouring countries: concerns

• India’s relations with Nepal, meanwhile, have hit a roadblock over the Kalapani area.
• In Sri Lanka, the return of the Rajapaksas to power after the recent elections does not augur too well for India-Sri Lanka relations.
• The strain in India-Bangladesh relations is a real cause for concern since it can provide a beachhead against Chinese activities in the region.

Growing Chinese presence in India’s sphere of influence

•  In July, the Chinese Foreign Minister organised a virtual meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• In this meeting, China proposed economic corridor plan with Nepal, styled as the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.
• China has also made headway in Iran to an extent, again at India’s expense.

Conclusion

Geo-balancing is not happening to China’s disadvantage. This lesson must be well understood when India plan its future strategy.

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