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Context

The battle between Russia and Ukraine continues for the 22^nd day after Russia launched its offensive against its neighbor.
Russia has put its nuclear forces on alert, calling it a special regime of combat duty; these include the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that have a range of 5,000 plus and are designed to use nuclear weapons.
While the Russian announcement might just be a deterrent as such weapons always maintain a high-level of readiness, the mention of the word ‘nuclear’ cannot be ignored.

This article analyses all aspects of this conflict including the nuclear angle.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A quick recap

The Russian premier said the Russian military action aims to ensure a “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine.
At the core of the current Ukraine crisis is Russia’s disapproval of the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO in its neighbourhood.
Russia feels threatened by the rapid expansion of NATO since the late 1990s in the region.
NATO and the former USSR were engaged in what was called the Cold War for about 45 years in the game of geostrategic one-upmanship.

Will there be a nuclear war?

Neither country would deliberately launch a “bolt-out-of-the-blue” nuclear attack.
The crisis has now become a war of endurance.
At all times, Russia and the US are assumed to keep their land-based and submarine-based nuclear missiles in high readiness.
While they carefully select which instruments of coercion to use, they have both established “integrated deterrence” doctrines during the last decade.

Nuclear capability of Russia

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with over 6,000 warheads.
Most of those warheads were in reserve when Russia invaded Ukraine, with just roughly 1,600 deployed as land, sea, and air-based weapons, such as missiles in silos or bombs dropped by planes.
Nuclear weapons were left on Ukrainian land when the USSR came apart at the conclusion of the Cold War, but Ukraine returned them to Russia.

US and the Nuclear Umbrella

Without recognizing America’s role as a nuclear umbrella, the European countries cannot avert a nuclear attack with military means.
The “umbrella” is based on the assumption that the adversaries of NATO will refrain from using nuclear weapons because of the fear of a counterattack.
There lies a distinct psychology of deterrence with NATO’s nuclear powers.
However, the US President is the first to decide on the use of the US nuclear weapons stored in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

What is the Deterrence Theory?

A nuclear deterrent acts as a reminder of the consequences a country can face if they choose to attack another country or state.
The ideology dates back to the Cold War and was used to prevent any nuclear aggression.
As the US and then-Soviet Union each raced toward the creation and building of nuclear weapons, the US adopted a strategy of nuclear deterrence
The concept of nuclear deterrence follows the rationale of the ‘first user’ principle.
States reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in self-defense against an armed attack threatening their vital security interests.

Is Nuclear War eminent?

In the light of legality, the use of any nuclear weapon, considering the massive impact it has on civilians, infringes international humanitarian law.
Already there is a mass migration of people from Ukraine to Poland and some are seeking shelter in Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia.
A prominent nuclear threat would add to the humanitarian crisis.
However, threats of nuclear use impose intimidatory tactics on the sovereignty of a country.

Issues with Nuclear War

Catastrophic destruction: Nuclear weapons wreak devastation and have long-term radiation effects that affect future generations.
Environmental degradation: The radioactive fallout from nuclear processes is detrimental to environment and affects nations across borders.
Humanitarian Crisis: The very nature of destruction emanating from the use of nuclear weapons is against the very spirit of humanity.
Ethical Crisis: Nuclear weapons do not discriminate between armed personals and civilians. Unleashing nuclear weapons will lead to large scale loss of innocent lives and non-combatants.
Huge Proliferation risk: Proliferation is the risk that states that have nuclear weapons increase their weapon stockpiles or that new states become nuclear-armed to match their enemies.
Nuclear Terrorism: Large stockpiles of nuclear weapons can be misused by terrorists or some rouge elements to compel the governments to give in to their demands.
Domino effect resulting in Proxy Wars: There is a possibility that during times of escalating bilateral disputes, some country may use military operations covertly. Ex. Pakistan.

India’s No First Use Doctrine

Minimum Credible Deterrence: Building and maintaining credible minimum deterrence.

No First use: Nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.

Non-use against non-nuclear states: Non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states. However, in the event of a major attack against India, or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons.

Massive Retaliation: Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.

Nuclear Command Authority: Nuclear retaliatory attacks can only be authorized by the civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority.

Challenges posed to India

Declining empathy for Russia: Keeping the prominence of the ongoing crisis intact, there is an emerging trend of Russia losing grounds of empathy and friendship from the international communities.
Neutrality put to question: As a result, it creates a massive dilemma for Russia’s old friends like India to retain its neutrality when the majority of the world is unidirectional (against Russia) at this moment.
Peer pressure on rise: India has age-old friendship with Russia. It is in true sense India’s all weather and time-tested friend.

India’s general position on nukes

Complete Disarmament: India has always been an ardent supporter of multilateral nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Phased elimination: In 1996, India, one amongst the “Group of 21”, submitted a Programme of Action calling for “phased elimination of nuclear weapons” to the Conference of Disarmament.
Non-discriminatory elimination: India reiterated its commitment to a Nuclear Weapons Convention calling for a verifiable and non-discriminatory elimination of all nuclear weapons.

Way Forward

The entire world is at the confluence of confusion and complexities and an anticipation of the severity of the nuclear threat from Russia.
Nuclear weapons – for as long as they continue to exist – should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.
Since Russian concerns are genuine, it needs to create a security environment more conducive to progress on dialogue and diplomacy.