What’s the news?

• As of July 30, the current month has witnessed a significant 15.7% above-normal rainfall, transforming the cumulative deficit into an overall 6% surplus for the period from June 1 to July 30.

Central idea

• The southwest monsoon made a tardy start, arriving seven days late this year, resulting in 52.6% below-normal rainfall during the first two weeks. By the end of June, there was a cumulative deficiency of 10.1%. However, the scenario changed dramatically from the last week of June, as the monsoon recovered remarkably, covering the entire country by July 2—six days ahead of schedule.

The monsoon’s erratic behavior and its impact on agriculture

• Delayed Crop Planting: The late arrival of the southwest monsoon raised concerns among farmers about their ability to sow crops on time, potentially affecting overall agricultural productivity.
• Uneven Rainfall Distribution:
• During the first two weeks of the monsoon, the country experienced a substantial rainfall deficit, with the overall rainfall being 52.6% below the normal long-period average.
• Eastern and southern India, except Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, were among the regions that received insufficient rainfall, which can lead to water stress and impact crop growth and yields.
• Cumulative Deficiency: By the end of June, the cumulative rainfall deficiency stood at 10.1%. This cumulative deficit further intensified worries about agricultural output and food security, as it could affect the availability of water for crops during crucial growth stages.
• Crop Recovery: Despite the abysmal start, the monsoon showed signs of recovery. This turnaround led to increased kharif crop plantings, including rice, which had been lagging behind last year’s levels until mid-July.
• Positive Impact on Sowing: The monsoon’s recovery improved sowing conditions for most major agricultural regions, except for certain areas in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, where rainfall remained deficient.
• Subsequent Impact on Yields: While the monsoon’s recovery positively impacted crop sowing, the ultimate impact on yields would largely depend on the rainfall during August and September.

El Niño Concerns

• The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in June exceeded the El Niño threshold of 0.5 degrees, reaching 0.8 degrees Celsius.
• Many global weather agencies predicted that El Niño would persist and strengthen through the 2023-24 winter.
• El Niño’s potential strengthening raised concerns about its impact on India’s monsoon in the coming months, particularly during August.
• El Niño is known to suppress rainfall in India, which could lead to a weakening of the monsoon during this crucial period.
• A weakened monsoon can adversely affect crop growth, yields, and overall agricultural productivity.
• If rainfall activity becomes progressively weaker due to El Niño’s influence, the implications can extend beyond the kharif season and impact the rabi winter-spring crops as well.
• Rabi crops, dependent on stored rainwater, might be more vulnerable to a weakened monsoon, leading to potential losses and food production challenges.

Prospects of food security: Food inflation and stock situation

• Rice and Wheat Stocks: As of July 1, rice and wheat stocks in government godowns were reported to be at 71.1 million tonnes (mt). This stock level is the lowest in five years for this date.
• Impact of the Delayed Monsoon on Rice Planting:

• Due to the delayed monsoon, rice acreage initially picked up only after mid-July. It is unclear how much of this acreage is under short-duration varieties (around 125 days from seed to grain maturity).
• If the rice belt had received rain on time, farmers might have planted more long-duration varieties (around 150–155 days), which yield higher at about 1–2 tonnes per hectare.

• Re-transplanting in Punjab and Haryana: There are reports of farmers in Punjab and Haryana having to undertake paddy re-transplanting in large areas along the Beas, Sutlej, Ghaggar, and Yamuna rivers. This re-transplanting is likely for shorter duration varieties that usually yield less.
• Sugar Stocks and Exports: The estimated sugar stocks with mills at the end of September 2023 are projected to be 6.3 mt, a six-year low. The Indian government has already banned exports of sugar to manage domestic supply.
• Pulses and Edible Oil:

• Among pulses, arhar (pigeon-pea) and urad (black gram) have registered a dip in acreage due to rain deficiency in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana. However, Rajasthan is expected to deliver a bumper crop of moong (green gram).
• Chana (chickpea) has ample stocks due to government procurement, and masoor (red lentil) is being imported at rates below the government’s minimum support price.

• Edible Oil Inflation: Edible oil inflation is likely to remain low, supported by imports projected to exceed 15 mt, a new all-time high, by the end of the current oil year in October 2023.
• Milk Production and Prices: The supply of milk is expected to ease with buffalo calvings beginning from August. This will reflect in increased milk production, peaking during the winter and remaining high until next March-April.
• Vegetables: Vegetable inflation has been on the rise, contributing to an unacceptably high consumer price index inflation number for July. However, with faster supply responses, vegetable inflation is expected to fall as easily as it rose.

Way forward

• Monitor Monsoon Developments: Continuously monitor the progress of the monsoon and its distribution across regions. Timely and accurate weather forecasting can help farmers make informed decisions about crop planting and irrigation.
• Crop Diversification: Encourage farmers to diversify their crop choices to reduce dependence on water-intensive crops. Promote the cultivation of climate-resilient crops that require less water and are suitable for specific agro-climatic zones.
• Strategic Buffer Stock: Maintain a strategic buffer stock of essential food commodities like rice and wheat to address any temporary supply shortages and stabilize food prices during periods of volatility.
• Supply Chain Management: Improve supply chain logistics to ensure smooth transportation and distribution of agricultural produce. This will help prevent post-harvest losses and ensure the timely availability of food in the market.
• Price Stabilization Measures: Implement effective price stabilization measures to control food inflation and prevent price volatility. These measures may include regulating exports, imports, and MSP (Minimum Support Price) mechanisms.
• Encourage Pulses and Oil seed Production: Provide incentives and support to farmers for increasing pulses and oilseed production. This can reduce the country’s dependence on imports and stabilize prices.
• Support the Dairy Sector: Extend support to the dairy sector to enhance milk production and improve the availability of dairy products. This can help stabilize milk prices and ensure food security.

Conclusion

• The monsoon’s erratic behavior has impacted crop sowing and food inflation in India. While the recovery has been promising, concerns over El Niño persist, making it vital for the government to monitor the agricultural sector closely and implement appropriate measures to ensure food security.

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