Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: Israel-Palestine crisis, Impact on the region, India's relations and its Impact
What’s the news?
- The recent escalation of violence between Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, and Israel has resulted in a significant loss of life and raised concerns internationally. At the heart of this conflict is Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge, initiated by Hamas, which has led to a series of events with far-reaching implications for the region.
Central idea
- The recent Hamas operation, Toofan Al-Aqsa (Al-Aqsa Flood), bears uncanny similarities to the launch of the 19-day Yom Kippur War that occurred 50 years ago. While the Yom Kippur War had inconclusive results, it led to a significant regional shift, ultimately resulting in Israel’s acceptance of the ‘land for peace’ formula at the Camp David Accords six years later.
Quick recap: Understand the conflict
- Muhammad Deif’s Statement: Muhammad Deif, the military commander of Hamas, delivered a recorded message, characterizing the operation as a moment for people to regain their revolution.
- The Significance of Al-Aqsa Mosque: Central to this conflict is the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Islam after Mecca and Medina. Situated on a hill known as Temple Mount to Jews and the Noble Sanctuary to Muslims, the mosque is located in the heart of Jerusalem’s Old City. It houses two important Muslim holy sites: the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque (also known as the Qibli Mosque), dating back to the 8th century AD.
- Historical Context: The Al-Aqsa Mosque complex overlooks the Western Wall, a sacred site for Jews believed to have been constructed 3,000 years ago by King Solomon.
- Capture by Israel: In 1967, during the Middle East War, Israel captured the site and later annexed it, actions not recognized internationally.
- Triggering Tensions: The Al-Aqsa Mosque has been a long-standing focal point of Israeli-Palestinian tensions, leading to clashes and conflicts.
- 2021 Conflict: Recent clashes in 2021 resulted in a 10-day-long war, leading to casualties on both sides.
- April Clashes: In April of the same year, Israeli police clashed with Palestinians at the site, sparking cross-border exchanges of fire.
- International Concern: The ongoing violence, particularly centered around Al-Aqsa Mosque, has raised international concerns and has broader implications for regional stability.
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An overview of major flare-ups and significant events (2005 to October 2023)
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Potential Outcomes of the Ongoing Conflict
- Israel’s Military Superiority: Israel is not under an existential threat from Hamas, and the outcome of the conflict is expected to favor Israel. A massive ground incursion into Gaza may follow to restore morale, re-establish strategic dominance, and rescue captives.
- Reevaluation of Israeli Strategies: The conflict’s experiences, including intelligence failures and overreliance on high-tech missile defense and artificial intelligence, may compel Israel to revise its strategic doctrines.
- Impact on Non-State Arab Militias: Depending on the conflict’s endgame, it could potentially boost the standing of non-state Arab militias such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and others in the region.
- Geographic Confinement: The crisis is likely to remain geographically confined to Gaza and its immediate surroundings, due to limited support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the region.
- The Palestinian Authority’s Dilemma: The Palestinian Authority is divided between the West Bank and Gaza, with Fatah losing credibility. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are capitalizing on this to establish their presence in the West Bank.
- Regional Non-Support for Hamas: Regionally, there is little support for Hamas, except for Turkey. Egypt, in particular, does not favor Hamas, given its past ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf monarchies, except Qatar, strongly disapprove of Hamas.
- Iran’s Involvement: Iran has been a mentor to Hamas and Islamic Jihad and has attempted to supply weapons to Gaza. Iran’s involvement could escalate the crisis further.
Impact on the Region
- Risk of Delay in Regional Diplomacy: The crisis may delay regional diplomatic efforts, including the potential rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, due to Israel’s reluctance to make concessions sought by Riyadh.
- Repercussions for the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, could face challenges due to the ongoing conflict.
- Potential Iranian Gains: Iran may feel emboldened by the conflict, potentially affecting regional dynamics and tensions.
Impact on India
- While India is not directly affected, it could feel some indirect effects, such as an oil price rise, impacts on the Indian diaspora, and potential setbacks for regional economic initiatives.
- However, India’s reputation as a stable and fast-growing economy may be enhanced in this context.
Conclusion
- The Toofan Al-Aqsa crisis has regional implications that could alter the dynamics in the Middle East. As the situation evolves, it remains essential for stakeholders, including India, to monitor developments closely and prepare for potential repercussions while seeking avenues for diplomatic engagement and stability in the region.
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