Central Idea

• As China celebrates the 10th anniversary of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2023, the progress of one of its flagship projects, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), appears to have slowed down.
• Despite its initial promise, challenges related to economic, security, and political factors have led to a reevaluation of the CPEC’s future.

CPEC Overview

• Inception: Signed in 2015, the CPEC aimed to facilitate Chinese goods’ transportation from Xinjiang through Pakistan to the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.
• Investment: It involves significant Chinese investments in rail and road infrastructure and energy development in Pakistan.

Reasons behind CPEC Slowdown

(A) Economic Factors

• Pakistan’s Economic Crisis: Pakistan’s deteriorating economic situation has impacted the viability of new CPEC projects.
• China’s Economic Slowdown: China’s economic slowdown has also contributed to a reduction in new investments.

(B) Overpromising and Under-delivering

• High Expectations: CPEC faced criticism for generating high expectations but delivering limited tangible benefits to the Pakistani people.
• Debt Burden: Pakistan has incurred substantial public debt and payments to Chinese companies, further straining its finances.

(C) Political Instability in Pakistan

• Imran Khan’s Ouster: The political instability following the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022 has raised concerns about political stability.
• Lack of Clarity: The uncertainty surrounding the timing of future elections adds to China’s worries.

(D) Security Concerns

• Threats to Chinese Workers: Security threats to Chinese workers and projects, including attacks by militants, have raised alarm.
• Expanding Threat Landscape: China faces a range of security threats, including Baloch insurgents, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), and Islamic State-Khorasan province (IS-K).

China’s Response and Concerns

• Security Measures: China is increasingly concerned about security threats to its Belt and Road investments and has taken measures to safeguard its personnel and infrastructure.
• Potential Political Fallout: China’s potential deployment of its security forces to protect its assets in Pakistan could have political implications.

Conclusion

• The CPEC, a vital component of China’s BRI, faces a complex set of challenges.
• Economic pressures, overpromising, political instability in Pakistan, and security threats have contributed to its slowdown.
• While some maintain optimism about the project’s future, addressing these multifaceted issues will be crucial for the CPEC to realize its full potential and continue as a significant driver of regional development.

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