Introduction

Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13, which saw the victory of the ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te, carries significant implications not only for the island but also for global geopolitics.
To understand the dynamics at play, it’s crucial to delve into the complex history and evolving relationship between China and Taiwan.

Taiwan Tension: A Historical Background

Early Settlement: Taiwan’s first known settlers were Austronesian tribal people, believed to have migrated from southern China.
Chinese Records: Chinese records from AD 239 mention Taiwan, forming part of China’s territorial claim.
Qing Dynasty and Japan: Taiwan was administered by China’s Qing dynasty and later ceded to Japan after the First Sino-Japanese War.
Post-World War II: After World War II, Taiwan was officially considered occupied by the Republic of China (ROC), with the consent of the US and UK.

Civil War: A civil war broke out in China, leading Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang (KMT) government, along with supporters, to flee to Taiwan in 1949.
Dictatorship Era: Chiang established a dictatorship that ruled Taiwan until the 1980s.
Transition to Democracy: After Chiang’s death, Taiwan embarked on a transition to democracy, holding its first elections in 1996.

Disagreement: There is disagreement regarding Taiwan’s status.
Independent Governance: Taiwan has its own constitution, democratically-elected leaders, and an armed forces.
Decline in Recognition: Over time, the number of countries recognizing Taiwan as the ROC government has dwindled, largely due to diplomatic pressure from China.

1980s Improvement: Relations started improving in the 1980s as Taiwan relaxed rules on visits and investments in China.
One Country, Two Systems: China proposed the “one country, two systems” option, which Taiwan rejected.
Political Shift: The election of Chen Shui-bian in 2000 marked a shift, as he openly backed Taiwan “independence.”
Anti-Secession Law: China passed an anti-secession law in 2005, threatening non-peaceful means against Taiwan.
Cross-Strait Relations: Cross-strait relations soured under President Tsai Ing-wen, with China cutting off official communications due to her refusal to endorse a single Chinese nation concept.

US-Taiwan Relations: The US officially recognizes Beijing but remains Taiwan’s significant international supporter.
Defensive Commitment: The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, and President Joe Biden has stated a commitment to defending Taiwan militarily.
Contested Issue: Taiwan remains a contentious issue in US-China relations, with Beijing condemning perceived US support for Taipei.
Increased Tensions: China has intensified its “grey zone warfare” around Taiwan, sending fighter jets and conducting military drills in response to US-Taiwan exchanges.

The results of Taiwan’s presidential election and the evolving China-Taiwan relationship have far-reaching implications for global politics.
Balancing diplomatic recognition, territorial disputes, and US involvement, the delicate equilibrium in the Taiwan Strait will continue to shape the course of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region.