Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Impact of Climate change;
Why in the News?
The record warming of 2023-2024 is offering a clearer view of the impacts of global warming. The range of extreme events experienced globally has spanned from deadly heatwaves to devastating cyclones and floods, as well as droughts and wildfires.
Impact of Warming on Predictability:
- Increased Variability: The record warming of 2023-2024 highlights the unpredictability of climate systems under global warming, complicating forecasts for natural phenomena like El Niño, monsoons, and hurricanes.
- Natural Variability: Warming may extend the timescale of natural decadal variability, making it harder to distinguish between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in climate behaviour.
- Model Limitations: Despite advances, climate models are imperfect in capturing changes in dominant climate modes due to warming, leading to inconsistencies in predicting events like monsoon trends.
Types of Climate Models to forecast the weather:
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Challenges in Forecasting Extreme Weather:
- Inconsistent Predictions: Predictions for extreme weather events in 2023, such as the monsoon and hurricane seasons, were less accurate, revealing the limitations of current models and observational networks.
- Unforeseen Factors: Unanticipated contributions, like the impact of the Hunga Tonga volcano or wildfire-induced CO2 emissions, exacerbated warming in ways models failed to predict, illustrating the unpredictability of new factors.
- Censorship Concerns: The rapid response required from social media platforms to act on content flagged as misleading within 36 hours created concerns about censorship and freedom of expression.
Future of Weather Prediction Models:
- Need for Model Improvements: There is ongoing work to refine models and incorporate the latest technologies, including AI and machine learning, to improve weather prediction accuracy at hyperlocal scales.
- Natural Modes and Uncertainty: The predictability of natural modes (El Niño, La Niña, IOD) may decrease with relentless warming, making future climate forecasts increasingly uncertain.
- Short-Term Focus: A shift toward short-term predictions (up to a decade or two) may offer more reliable projections due to the inherent difficulty in predicting long-term scenarios under continuous global warming.
Way forward:
- Enhanced Climate Models: Invest in improving climate models with cutting-edge technologies like AI, machine learning, and advanced sensors to increase the accuracy of short-term forecasts and better capture the impact of natural variability under warming.
- Localized Early Warning Systems: Develop robust, hyperlocal early warning systems to better prepare for extreme weather events, focusing on disaster management and reducing vulnerabilities in high-risk communities.
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