Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: GenCast
Why in the News?
Google DeepMind has unveiled its revolutionary GenCast AI model, designed to predict the weather more accurately and farther in advance than current forecasting tools.
About GenCast:
| What is it? |
- GenCast is an AI-based weather forecasting model developed by Google DeepMind.
- It uses machine learning techniques for more accurate and long-term predictions compared to traditional models.
- Unlike traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, GenCast uses an ensemble of AI-generated forecasts, trained on 40 years of reanalysis data.
- Outperforms traditional tools in predicting extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production.
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| How GenCast Works |
- Trained on 40 years of reanalysis data (1979–2019), blending historical data and modern forecasts.
- It is powered by a neural network with 41,162 nodes and 240,000 edges, where nodes process data and edges connect them.
- A diffusion model that refines noisy data in 30 steps to improve forecast accuracy.
- It generates about 50 forecasts at once, providing probabilistic predictions (e.g., likelihood of rain, not exact amounts).
- Generates forecasts in 8 minutes using a single TPU v5 unit, much faster than traditional NWP models, which take hours.
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| Significance of GenCast |
- Outperforms ECMWF ensemble forecasts on 97.2% of targets, especially for extreme weather predictions.
- Provides longer-term forecasts for up to 15 days, with spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° and 12-hour intervals.
- Offers probabilistic forecasts to help better prepare for extreme weather.
- Faster processing than traditional models, reducing forecast time from hours to minutes.
- Sustainability and scalability allow the model to be expanded to other areas of weather prediction.
- Google collaborates with weather agencies to enhance AI forecasting methods while recognizing the importance of traditional models.
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