Critically analyse India’s evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARS) highlighting their increasing significance in regional and global geopolitics. 

“India and Central Asia are bound together by a shared history, culture, and mutual interest in peace and development.” – PM Modi

Diplomatic Engagement Between India And Central Asia

  1. India and CARs share cultural and historical connections that date back to the Silk Road and Mughal era. Since gaining independence in the early 1990s, India has made it a priority to establish robust diplomatic relations with these countries.
  2. Institutional frameworks like the India-Central Asia Dialogue facilitate engagement on political and strategic matters, concentrating on regional security, trade, and developmental collaboration.
  3. Bilateral Visits and Agreements: High-level exchanges, such as Indian PM’s visit to all five Central Asian nations in 2015.
  4. Cultural Diplomacy: The Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) actively promotes Indian culture in CARs.

Economic Relationship Between India And Central Asia

  • Trade Relations: Bilateral trade accounting for merely $3 billion in 2023. Key exports include pharmaceuticals, machinery, and tea, while imports are predominantly uranium and cotton.
  • Investment Initiatives: Exemplified by ONGC Videsh’s investments in Kazakhstan’s oil fields.
  • Connectivity Projects: The INSTC and the development of the Chabahar Port in Iran are pivotal in enhancing connectivity between India and Central Asia
  • Energy Cooperation: Symbolized by its pursuit of energy projects such as TAPI pipeline

Strategic Relations

  1. Security and Counterterrorism Cooperation: Engagement through platforms like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) helps address security threats related to terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking.
  2. Balancing Regional Powers: India’s presence in the CARs counters the influence of China and Russia, enhancing its geopolitical standing through diversified strategies, particularly soft power initiatives such as education and cultural exchange.

Increasing Significance of Central Asian Republics in Regional and Global Geopolitics

  1. Energy Security: CARs, particularly Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, are vital for global energy security due to their rich nuclear, natural gas and oil reserves, attracting interest from regional powers like Russia, China, and Europe.
  2. Geopolitical Importance in Eurasia
    1. Strategic Location at the crossroads of Eurasia, CARs are crucial for major trade and energy corridors, including the Ashgabat Agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
    2. Great Power Competition: The region serves as a battleground for influence among Russia, China, and the U.S. China’s BRI enhances its economic foothold, while Russia maintains security ties through the CSTO. India aims to balance this competition while preserving its strategic autonomy.
  3. Security Concerns due to Afghanistan’s Stability: Central Asia’s security is closely linked to Afghanistan, which poses risks of terrorism, drug trafficking, and refugee flows. 
  4. Multilateral Cooperation: SCO and Regional Stability: As a member of the SCO, India plays a role in promoting regional stability and addressing transnational issues like extremism and border security, which are critical for both India and the CARs.

Challenges In India-Central Asia Relations that need to be addressed 

  1. Geographical Limitations: Central Asian Republics (CARs) are landlocked,hostile neighbors like Pakistan and China limiting India’s direct connectivity.
  2. Chinese Influence: Over the past two decades, China has significantly strengthened its presence in CARs, with trade and investment flourishing, making India’s outreach more challenging.
  3. The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan raises security concerns, complicating India’s efforts to secure its interests in the region and engage with CARs.
  4. Low Trade Volume: Trade between India and CARs stands at around $2 billion, starkly contrasting with China’s trade, which amounts to approximately $100 billion, indicating a need for stronger commercial ties.

As per Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, “Central Asian Republics constitute the extended neighborhood of India. Security, stability and prosperity of this region is intimately linked with that of India and world ultimately.”

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