NOTE4STUDENTS:

China’s Tsangpo Dam threatens India’s water security, environment, and geopolitical stability. The UPSC often frames questions on such topics by linking them to geopolitics, environmental concerns, and India’s national security. A common mistake students make is focusing only on surface-level news. They memorize facts but miss the bigger picture—how it connects to past trends, and what solutions India can explore. This article bridges that gap by breaking down the dam’s impact in a structured way, making it easier to develop a well-rounded answer. One standout feature of this article is its Back2Basics section, which simplifies complex water-sharing issues between India and China. It ensures you not only understand current affairs but also master the static concepts that UPSC loves to test.

PYQ ANCHORING & MICROTHEMES:

1. GS 2:  With respect to the South China sea, maritime territorial disputes and rising tension affirm the need for safeguarding maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region. In this context, discuss the bilateral issues between India and China. [2014]
2. GS 2: Discuss the geopolitical and geostrategic importance of Maldives for India with a focus on global trade and energy flows. Further also discuss how this relation ship affects India’s maritime security and regional stability amidst international competition? [2024]

Microthemes:  Bilateral Relations

On December 25, China approved the construction of the Tsangpo Dam, set to become the world’s largest hydropower project. It will be built on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (which becomes the Brahmaputra in India) in Tibet and is expected to generate a massive 60,000 MW of electricity—three times more than the current record-holder, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River.

While China promotes the dam as a clean energy project, it has raised serious concerns, particularly for downstream countries like India. The sheer scale of the project brings up major issues around water sharing, environmental impact, and regional stability, making it a highly sensitive geopolitical matter.

ABOUT YARLUNG-TSANGPO PROJECT

• Location: The dam will be built on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, near the border with India. This river is known as the Brahmaputra once it flows into India and later into Bangladesh.
• Scale: The dam is set to become the world’s largest hydropower project, with an estimated capacity of 60,000 megawatts (MW). This is three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam in China, which currently holds the record for the largest hydropower project.
• Purpose: China describes the project as a clean energy initiative aimed at reducing its reliance on fossil fuels and meeting its climate goals. Hydropower is a renewable energy source, and the dam is expected to significantly contribute to China’s energy needs.

WHY DOES CHINA WANT THE YARLUNG TSANGPO MEGA PROJECT?

1. Energy Security & Sustainability:
   • The river’s steep drop and strong flow make it ideal for generating hydroelectric power.
   • Helps China reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and move toward its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060.
2. Solving Northern China’s Water Crisis:
   • Northern China faces severe water shortages due to overuse, industrialization, and climate change.
   • Controlling the river’s flow could help redirect water northward under China’s South-North Water Diversion Project, easing water stress in dry regions like Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin.
3. Geopolitical Strategy:
   • The project gives China control over the river, impacting India and Bangladesh, which rely on it for agriculture and daily life.
   • It could be used as a bargaining tool in India-China relations since changes in water flow would directly affect Northeast India.
4. Boosting Tibet’s Economy:
   • Aims to develop Tibet by bringing in investment and infrastructure.
   • Expected to generate ¥20 billion ($3 billion) annually, creating jobs and economic growth in the underdeveloped region.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INDIA

1. Threat to Agriculture: The Brahmaputra enriches soil with silt in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, making the land fertile. A dam could block silt flow, reducing soil quality and harming farming.
2. Water Disruptions: China says it’s a run-of-the-river project (which doesn’t store water), but experts warn it could still alter river flow. This could cause water shortages in dry seasons and floods during monsoons, putting Assam and nearby regions at risk.
3. China’s Control Over Water as a Weapon: Being upstream, China has significant control over the Brahmaputra. It has withheld crucial water data before, such as during the 2017 Doklam standoff, raising fears of water being used as a geopolitical tool.
4. Earthquake Risks: The Himalayas are a highly active earthquake zone. A massive dam here increases the risk of catastrophic flooding if an earthquake damages the structure.
5. Environmental Impact: The dam threatens the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, home to endangered species.When combined with deforestation, climate change, and soil erosion, it could permanently harm biodiversity.

WAY FORWARD

1. Diplomatic Pressure:
   • Push for transparency and cooperation through diplomatic channels.
   • Publicly challenge China’s claims that the project won’t harm downstream countries.
2. India’s Own Hydropower Projects:
   • Fast-track India’s 10 GW Dibang Valley hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh to counterbalance China’s dam.
3. Global Advocacy:
   • Work with international forums to push for stricter global rules on transboundary water governance.
4. Better Water Data Sharing:
   • Strengthen and extend hydrological data-sharing agreements with China for better flood forecasting and disaster management.
5. Alliances with Other Affected Countries:
   • Collaborate with Bangladesh and other lower riparian nations to oppose China’s unilateral water control.
6. Disaster Preparedness:
   • Invest in resilient infrastructure and early warning systems to reduce risks from upstream activities.

Conclusion

China’s Yarlung Tsangpo dam is a double-edged sword—it highlights the urgency of managing shared water resources but also challenges India’s security and ecology. A balanced approach, focusing on diplomacy, strategic projects, and environmental safeguards, is crucial for India to navigate this complex issue.

#BACK2BASICS: INDIA-CHINA WATER RELATIONS

The Trans-border rivers flowing from China to India fall into two main groups i.e. The Brahmaputra river system on the Eastern side, which consist of river Siang (main stream of river Brahmaputra) and its tributaries, namely Subansiri and Lohit and the Indus river system on the Western side consists of river Indus and the river Sutlej. 

INDIA-CHINA COORDINATION ON TRANSBOUNDARY RIVERS

1. Existing Agreements:
   • A 2013 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) covers cooperation but lacks real engagement.
   • Separate MoUs exist for the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers, but their effectiveness is inconsistent.
2. Brahmaputra MoU:
   • Focuses on hydrological data sharing during monsoons.
   • Last renewed in 2018, but it lapsed in 2023, and discussions are ongoing.
3. Sutlej MoU:
   • Created after the 2004 Parechu Lake incident, it monitors glacial lake outbursts.
   • However, it doesn’t ensure year-round data sharing.
4. Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM):
   • Established during President Hu Jintao’s visit to India in 2006.
   • Meets yearly to discuss flood data, emergencies, and river issues.
5. International Water Law:
   • Neither India nor China has signed the 1997 UN Convention on Watercourses, but both follow key principles like fair use of shared water.

Issues in Water cooperation in India China Relations

Need for greater cooperation