Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

1.5 degree Celsius Threshold: Is Climate Change real?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: 1.5 degree Celsius Threshold

Mains level: Read the attached story

climate change

Introduction

  • The year 2023 witnessed alarming signs of climate change, from record-breaking summer temperatures to shrinking Antarctic sea ice and extreme weather events across the globe.
  • Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change, there remains confusion and misinformation on this critical issue.

Is the Earth Becoming Warmer?

  • Temperature Measurement: Temperature measurements since the late 1880s show global warming trends. Satellite data confirms an increase of at least 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1880.
  • Indirect Verification: Analyzing natural indicators like tree rings and ice cores. Observing effects such as warming oceans, shrinking ice cover, and rising sea levels. Multiple monitoring systems enhance confidence in global-scale warming.
  • Acceleration of Warming: Recent decades witness unprecedented rapid warming. The majority of warming observed since 1975. 2022 marked the 46th consecutive year of temperatures above the 20th-century average.

Role of Human Activities

  • Natural Factors: Throughout Earth’s history, natural factors like solar variations and volcanic activity influenced climate.
  • Current Acceleration: However, natural factors exert too little influence and operate too slowly to account for recent rapid warming, as acknowledged by NASA.
  • Greenhouse Gases: The primary driver of global warming is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor.
  • Human Influence: Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have released substantial greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
  • Unprecedented Change: Changes that would typically occur over hundreds of thousands of years are now happening within decades.

Overwhelming Evidence

  • Scientific Consensus: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that “human influence on the climate system is clear and growing.”
  • Unprecedented Warmth: 2022 marked the 46th consecutive year with global temperatures exceeding the 20th-century average, with the last nine years ranking among the warmest.

1.5 Degree Celsius Threshold

  • Paris Agreement: 195 countries pledge to limit warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius” and aim to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
  • Baseline Year: Pre-industrial levels based on measurements from 1850 to 1900, providing a reliable historical reference.
  • Reason for 1.5 Degrees: Scientific consensus: 1.5 degrees is a defense line against severe climate impacts. It avoids extreme and irreversible consequences associated with 2 degrees warming.
  • Continuous Improvement: Lowering the target reduces climate risks further. Science supports aiming for the lowest possible temperature increase.

Consequences of Breaching the Threshold

  • Increased Extreme Weather: More frequent and intense heavy precipitation. Elevated drought intensity and frequency in some regions.
  • Warmer Oceans: Higher number of strong hurricanes with rapid strengthening.
  • Intensified Wildfires: Longer-lasting and more intense wildfires.
  • Rapid Sea Ice Melt: Accelerated sea-level rise.
  • Emerging Consequences: Many of these impacts are already underway. Breaching the threshold exacerbates these effects.

How Close Are We to Breaching the Threshold?

  • WMO Warning: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns of a 66% chance of crossing the 1.5-degree limit between 2023 and 2027.
  • Hottest Year: 2023 declared the hottest year on record, 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.
  • Daily Fluctuations: Daily temperatures occasionally exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, but long-term trends are the focus.

Conclusion

  • The evidence of climate change and global warming is undeniable.
  • Human activities, primarily the release of greenhouse gases, are driving these changes at an unprecedented rate.
  • Understanding the science behind climate change is crucial in addressing this real global crisis.

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