The Crisis In The Middle East

[11th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Gaza and Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

PYQ Relevance:

Q) “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2018)

Q) Consider the following statements: (2023)

Statement I: Israel has established diplomatic relations with some Arab States.

Statement-II: The ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ mediated by Saudi Arabia was signed by Israel and Arab League.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

(a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement II is the correct explanation for Statement I

(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I

(c) Statement I is correct but Statement II is incorrect

(d) Statement I is incorrect but Statement II is correct

 

Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on India’s relations with Israel (2018), and the Arab Peace Initiative for Israel and Palestine ( 2023).

On February 4, 2025, Donald Trump proposed relocating Gaza’s 2.3 million residents to Egypt and Jordan, turning the area into a global resort under U.S. control. He hinted at a West Bank plan soon. Alongside Netanyahu, he praised Saudi Crown Prince Mb Salman, who reaffirmed that Saudi-Israel ties depend on a Palestinian state’s creation.

 

Today’s editorial talks about issues in the Middle East which is always in the news because of the Israel and Palestine conflict. This topic is also the favourite of UPSC in GS Paper2 mains and prelims related to International relations above mentioned in the box (PYQ Relevance). This content would help in substantiation of answers in Mains GS Paper 2.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

Donald Trump recently proposed an audacious plan to relocate 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan, turning Gaza into a global resort, which has stirred geopolitical tension.

  • This suggestion, along with his praise for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), hints at possible changes in the West Asia region, especially concerning the Israel-Palestine issue and Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement in the Abraham Accords.

What is meant by Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy?

  • Trump’s “expanding the canvas” strategy refers to his approach of broadening the scope of a negotiation or conflict resolution by introducing bold, often extreme proposals to provoke reaction and stimulate further discussions.
  • By presenting an audacious or exaggerated idea, he aims to shift the focus and push opposing parties to consider more realistic and agreeable counter-offers. The idea is that this “shock tactic” can help break a stalemate and create space for new solutions.
  • In the context of the Gaza proposal, Trump’s suggestion to depopulate Gaza and turn it into a global resort serves as an example of this strategy—pushing the boundaries of negotiation to force other stakeholders to come up with a more balanced, practical solution.

What are the implications of the proposed strategy for the Gaza conflict, and how might it reshape the geopolitical landscape in West Asia?

  • Geopolitical Tensions and Pushback: This proposal would likely anger Palestinians and Arab nations, as it bypasses the core issue of Palestinian statehood and self-determination. It could worsen tensions between Israel, Palestinians, and neighboring Arab countries.
    • The suggestion might also be viewed as a land grab or colonial move, particularly because it disregards the established claim of Palestinians to their land, creating significant backlash in the region and beyond.
  • Impact on Palestinian Statehood: Trump’s plan shifts focus away from the two-state solution (Israel and Palestine coexisting as separate states), which many international actors, including the U.S. and the UN, support.
    • The proposal undermines the push for Palestinian independence and could derail efforts to achieve a lasting peace settlement.
  • Saudi Arabia and Other Arab Nations’ Involvement: Trump’s proposal could alter the balance in Arab-Israeli relations. Saudi Arabia, which is being courted for inclusion in the Abraham Accords, might find it difficult to reconcile such a plan with its own stance on Palestinian rights, especially since Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has linked normalization with Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state.
    • It could either push Saudi Arabia and other Arab states further toward Israel or create more division, depending on how the proposal is received by the region’s leaders.
  • Shifting Regional Alliances: If Saudi Arabia were to move toward accepting the proposal, it could signal a significant shift in Middle Eastern alliances, possibly leading to greater cooperation between Arab states and Israel, while sidelining Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
    • On the other hand, if the plan fails, it could deepen regional divisions, particularly between Israel and the Arab world, and intensify the existing geopolitical instability in the region.

How are the ongoing conflicts and economic challenges in West Asia affecting the region’s future?

Political Impact of Conflicts: The wars and conflicts in places like Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon have created deep divisions and instability. The region has been repolarized, leading to less cooperation and more distrust between nations.

  • Issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Kurdish national aspirations remain unresolved, keeping tensions high and preventing lasting peace.

Economic Challenges: The conflicts have caused massive destruction, with the rebuilding costs in places like Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. However, economic recovery is impossible without resolving the political issues first.

  • The region’s economy is also heavily dependent on oil, which is a vulnerable resource. The global push to move away from fossil fuels and the volatility of oil prices make the region’s future uncertain.
  • Countries like Saudi Arabia are aware of this and are trying to diversify their economies, but this process is slow.

What are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords refer to a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, aimed at establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations. These agreements were brokered by the USA, and they marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Here are the four major features of the Abraham Accords:

  • Normalization of Relations: Israel established diplomatic ties with Arab countries like UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
  • Economic Collaboration: The signatories are working together to enhance trade relations, investment opportunities, and economic partnerships. Israel’s advanced technology sector, including cybersecurity and innovation, is seen as a valuable area for collaboration with the Arab countries.
  • Security Cooperation: Enhances defense and intelligence sharing, especially to address regional threats like Iran. As part of the normalization, the Accords encourage cultural exchange programs, tourism, and people-to-people connections.
  • Exclusion of the Palestinian Issue: One of the most notable features—and points of controversy—of the Abraham Accords is that the agreements were made without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
    • While Palestinian leaders and many in the Arab world have opposed the Accords, claiming they betray the Palestinian cause, the agreements were framed as separate tracks that do not require the resolution of Palestinian statehood for Arab-Israeli relations to normalize.

Saudi Arabia’s Role in Shaping Stability:

  • Economic Influence: Saudi Arabia, as the largest economy in the region, plays a major role in the economic stability of West Asia. It has massive reserves of wealth, particularly from its oil exports, and is using this to invest in rebuilding and diversifying the region’s economy. The Saudi Public Investment Fund, for example, is helping to fuel new development projects.
  • Diplomatic Influence: Saudi Arabia’s political influence is also crucial. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), the country has made efforts to mediate regional conflicts, like the war in Yemen and tensions with Iran. It has also sought to balance relationships with global powers, including the U.S., China, and Russia, while maintaining its leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world.
  • Potential to Guide Regional Stability: Despite the conflicts around it, Saudi Arabia has largely avoided direct involvement in the region’s major wars. It can use its wealth and diplomatic leverage to fund reconstruction efforts and push for more peaceful, negotiated solutions to ongoing conflicts. It also holds significant sway over organizations like OPEC, which can affect the global oil market and, by extension, the region’s economy.

What are the challenges the US faces in advancing the Abraham Accords, and how does it  complicate vision for broader Arab-Israeli normalization?

  • Palestinian Statehood and the Core Issue of the Conflict: The Palestinian issue is a major barrier to Arab-Israeli normalization, with many Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, insisting on a Palestinian state as a prerequisite.
    • Trump’s focus on individual peace deals with Arab states bypasses this issue, making it difficult for countries like Saudi Arabia to fully normalize relations with Israel.
  • Opposition from Palestinian Leaders and Supporters: The Palestinian leadership has consistently rejected the Abraham Accords, seeing them as a betrayal of their cause. They argue that normalizing relations with Israel without addressing Palestinian rights and the establishment of a Palestinian state undermines their struggle for sovereignty and independence.
    • This complicates the situation. As long as Palestinians feel excluded from peace processes or see no meaningful progress toward a state of their own, it will be difficult to secure broad Arab-Israeli normalization.
  • Resistance from Ultra-Religious Israeli Groups: Within Israel, the growing influence of ultra-religious Jewish groups also complicates Trump’s plans. These groups often oppose any peace deal and their influence makes it harder for the Israeli government to adopt policies that could lead to broader peace agreements, even with Arab states.
  • Competing Interests Among Arab States: While some Arab states like the UAE and Bahrain have embraced the Abraham Accords, others, particularly in the Gulf, have been more cautious.
    • Saudi Arabia, for example, has signaled interest in normalizing relations with Israel, but only on the condition that Palestinian statehood is part of the deal.
    • This puts Trump in a difficult position, as he must balance the desire to expand the Accords with the realities of Arab and Palestinian demands.

Way Forward: 

  • Need for Revised Diplomacy: A lasting solution must address Palestinian statehood, with a two-state solution being central to gaining support from Arab nations and Palestinian leaders. Direct negotiations, backed by international mediators, are crucial.
    • Arab states, Israel, and global powers must work together through multilateral platforms, with Saudi Arabia playing a key role in fostering peace and stability in the region.
  • Humanitarian Focus: Immediate efforts are needed to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and surrounding areas, with international aid supporting reconstruction and stability.
  • Economic Diversification: The region must move beyond oil dependency by investing in other industries, with collaboration between the U.S. and Gulf states to promote long-term economic stability.

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