Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Galwan river, Shyok River
Mains level: Paper 2- India-China relations
This article calibrates the changes our future engagement with China will experience following the Galwan incident. The first casualty has been the trust between the two countries. And next could be strategic communications between the two countries. So, India’s response to the incident should be based on these changes.
What explains China’s aggression
- Hubris, internal insecurities in China, the COVID-19 pandemic and the complex and confused external environment explains it.
- Challenge posed by India from the ideological, strategic and economic points of view can be the other factor.
Violation of many agreements
- China’s recent military actions in Ladakh clearly violate the signed agreements of 1993, 1996, 2005, etc on maintaining peace and tranquillity along the LAC.
- These actions are in violation also of other signed agreements, including at the highest level.
- It also contradict positions taken by Xi himself at the informal Wuhan and Chennai summits in 2018 and 2019.
- In 2003, two countries signed a Declaration on Principles for Relations and Constructive Cooperation between our two countries.
- The third principle states: “The two countries are not a threat to each other. Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other.”
- This was more than reiterated in the agreement signed in April 2005 on the Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for settlement of the India China boundary question.
- . Article 1 states, inter alia: “Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other by any means.”
Doklam and informal summits
- .A qualitative change though occurred in Chinese perceptions after the Doklam face-off.
- That necessitated the first informal summit at Wuhan in April 2018.
- One important outcome of that summit was the agreement to continue to meet at the highest level and to enhance trust and strengthen strategic communication.
- The second informal summit took place between Xi and Narendra Modi in Chennai in October 2019.
- It was in the aftermath of the revocation of Article 370 by India and China’s unnecessary and unsuccessful attempt to raise the issue in the UN Security Council.
- By then, many other developments — both internal and external — had added pressure on China.
- At Chennai, the Chinese undoubtedly drew some red lines.
Which red lines does China feel India has crossed
- One fundamental red line is China’s long-held and strategic interest in parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
- Jammu and Kashmir border Xinjiang and Tibet and allow connectivity between the two.
- It is wrongly argued that it is Pakistan that is the issue in J&K.
- China is as big an issue but has quietly hidden behind Pakistan’s cover.
- That is no longer feasible as democratic India becomes economically and otherwise stronger.
Future of Special Representative process
- The Special Representatives process to address the boundary question seems stalemated and its usefulness needs review.
- The 2005 agreement contains the necessary parameters for a boundary settlement but there is obviously not adequate common ground.
- Some positivity can, however, be brought in if the LAC clarification process is revived and completed in a time-bound manner.
- But this is easier said than done in the prevailing circumstances.
- Patrolling procedures will need to be revised, preferably by mutual agreement.
Unsustainable economic partnership
- The current nature of the economic partnership between India and China is not sustainable.
- India’s annual trade deficit with China in recent years virtually finances a CPEC a year!
- China has still not fulfilled all its commitments to India on joining the WTO in 2001.
What should be our trade policy
- Indian business and industry must stop taking the easy option.
- Some costs will no doubt go up but there can be environmental advantages of switching to other sources of technology and equipment.
- There is more than one available source of financial investments in Indian ventures.
What will be the nature of bilateral dialogue
- Bilateral dialogue mechanisms will continue their desultory course.
- On issues of interest to India such as terrorism, we get no support from China.
- Cooperation on river waters has not evolved.
- On the global agenda, on issues such as climate change, dialogue and cooperation will continue in multilateral fora depending on mutual interest.
What should be the nature of governments response
- The response to China’s recent actions in Ladakh must be an all-of-government one, indeed an all-India one.
- It should be covering all sectors including heightened security and be coordinated, consistent.
- This is not a question of nationalism or patriotism but of self-esteem and self-respect.
Consider the question “What should be the basis of India’s evolving policy response to China’s new approach to the border dispute?”
Conclusion
Bilateral relations between India and China cannot progress unless there is peace on the borders and China recognises that India too has non-negotiable core concerns, aspirations and interests.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much
Mains level: Paper 3-Northern border security issue
Two issues have been discussed in this article:change in strategy on northern border and the role of political leaders. Leveraging LAC for premeditated aggression has been part of China’s policy. This makes the change in our policy an imperative.
LAC as leverage against India
- India and China have had parleys since 1981, meetings of Joint Working Groups from 1988 to 2005 and 22 rounds of Special Representatives talks, in addition to many summit-level meetings.
- Despite nearly four decades of discussions delineation and demarcation of the boundary has not been possible.
- Throughout this period CMC/PLA had been at the helm of the defence and foreign policy decision-making,
- The intrusion at Finger 4/5 of Pangong Tso and the transgression up to LAC in Galwan are instructive.
- Out of the blue, most inexplicably and without any historical basis, the official Chinese statement came out seeking the “estuary” of Shyok and Galwan rivers.
- The Chinese have deliberately ensured that the nebulous nature of the LAC is retained as leverage against India.
Modernisation of PLA: So, was Galwan a testbed?
- The PLA is at the threshold of achieving its interim modernisation goals of informatised, integrated joint operations by 2021.
- It is well likely that the events of Eastern Ladakh of May-June 2020 are part of a larger testbed.
- Over the years, the face-offs have witnessed PLA’s jostling and pushing, posse of horses intruding, and scant disregard for the treaties with India.
- Pangong Tso and Galwan showed a new picture.
Need to strategise and revisit the rules of engagement
- For the Indian Army units and formations in Eastern Ladakh or elsewhere facing the PLA, there are limits to adherence to good faith and honour.
- The Indian Army has to strategise and should revisit its rules of engagement on the Northern Borders.
- It has to be mindful that troops in tactical situations cannot be shackled by past treaties, which the PLA deals with disdain.
- The Indian Army has to remain prepared to militarily handle the situations that will arise.
- PLA has always shown extraordinary interest in Eastern Ladakh, especially Daulat-Beg-Oldi, the Chip-Chap river, Track Junction and Karakoram Pass.
- The management practices for the Northern Borders have to be revisited, like placing the nearly division-sized force of ITBP in Eastern Ladakh under the army operationally.
- Real-time intelligence, surveillance equipment and satellite imageries must be available to field formations that need to act on it.
- This should not be delayed by the bureaucratic maze.
Role of political leadership
- At political level, there are representative forums like Parliament, the committees and regular briefings to seek clarifications, which is the right of politicians.
- On national security issues, there must be national unity.
- There ought to be faith in those at the helm that the issues of national security will not be sacrificed for political gains.
- Similarly, within the norms and constraints of national security, the establishment must keep the nation informed, to avoid an information vacuum.
Conclusion
We need to strategise for the future, including the modern manifestations of non-contact, non-kinetic warfare. We must avoid unnecessary nitpicking on semantics of statements made in a particular context.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: WW2 and related stories
Raksha Mantri is on a three-day trip to Russia to attend the 75th Victory Day. India has sent a tri-services contingent to participate in the Victory Day Parade.
Try these questions from CS Mains:
Q.To what extent can Germany be held responsible for causing the two World Wars? Discuss critically. (CSM 2015)
Q.The New Economic Policy – 1921 of Lenin had influenced the policies adopted by India soon after independence. Evaluate. (CSM 2014)
What is Victory Day?
- Victory Day marks the end of World War II and the victory of the Allied Forces in 1945.
- Adolf Hitler had shot himself on April 30. On May 7, German troops surrendered, which was formally accepted the next day and came into effect on May 9.
- In most European countries, it is celebrated on May 8 and is called the Victory in Europe Day.
Why does Russia not celebrate Victory Day on the same date?
- The erstwhile Soviet Union had not wanted the surrender to take place in the west and wanted that such a significant event should reflect the contribution of the Red Army and the Soviet population.
- According to historians, Joseph Stalin, premier of the Soviet Union, wanted Germany to also sign surrender in Berlin.
- Since crowds were already gathering in London to celebrate, Victory in Europe Day celebration in Britain would take place on 8 May, as they did in the United States.
- This did not convince Stalin, who argued that Soviet troops were still fighting the German forces in many areas.
- German soldiers did not surrender in East Prussia, Courland Peninsula, Czechoslovakia till later. Hence victory celebration could therefore not begin in the Soviet Union even after May 9.
If May 9 is Victory Day, why is it being celebrated on June 24?
- This year, the celebrations this year were pushed to June because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- After winning the war and having its own Victory Day on May 9, Stalin wanted to commemorate the victory with a military parade.
- On June 22, 1945, he ordered the commemoration of the victory over Germany to hold the victory parade on June 24, 1945, in Moscow’s Red Square.
- Hence the first Victory Day Parade took place on June 24 in Moscow. However, since then, the Parades have taken place on May 9.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Tenth Schedule
Mains level: Issues over Speaker's discretion in Anti-defection
Manipur Speaker’s decision to disqualify some MLAs ahead of the Rajya Sabha election has raised questions once again on the Speaker’s powers to disqualify under the tenth schedule of our Constitution.
Try this question from CSP 2019:
Q.The Ninth Schedule was introduced in the Constitution of India during the prime-ministership of:
(a) Jawaharlal Nehru
(b) Lal Bahadur Shastri
(c) Indira Gandhi
(d) Morarji Desai
What is the Tenth Schedule?
- The anti-defection law, referred to as the Tenth Schedule, was added to the Constitution through the Fifty-Second (Amendment) Act, 1985 when Rajiv Gandhi was PM.
- It lays down the process by which legislators may be disqualified on grounds of defection by the Presiding Officer of a legislature based on a petition by any other member of the House.
- A legislator is deemed to have defected if he either voluntarily gives up the membership of his party or disobeys the directives of the party leadership on a vote.
- This implies that a legislator defying (abstaining or voting against) the party whip on any issue can lose his membership of the House.
- The law applies to both Parliament and state assemblies.
Exceptions under the law
- Legislators may change their party without the risk of disqualification in certain circumstances.
- The law allows a party to merge with or into another party provided that at least two-thirds of its legislators are in favour of the merger.
- In such a scenario, neither the members who decide to merge nor the ones who stay with the original party will face disqualification.
Is there any time limit to decide on the matter?
- The law does not specify a time period for the Presiding Officer to decide on a disqualification plea.
- Given that courts can intervene only after the Presiding Officer has decided on the matter, the petitioner seeking disqualification has no option but to wait for this decision to be made.
Under debate: Speaker’s power
- The power for this disqualification is vested in the Speaker, who is usually a nominee of the ruling party.
- Since no action was taken by the Speaker on the disqualification petitions, a writ petition was filed before the High Court of Manipur in Imphal seeking directions to decide on the petition.
- However, the court did not pass an order.
- It said that the larger issue of whether a High Court can direct a Speaker to decide a disqualification petition within a certain timeframe is pending before a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court.
- The parties are left with the option to move the apex court or wait for the outcome of the cases pending before it.
The apex court’s reluctance to intervene
- In 2018, however, the High Court, refusing the preliminary objections of the Speaker, decided to hear the case on merits.
- It reasoned that since the remedy under Tenth Schedule is an alternative to moving courts.
- It said that if the remedy is found to be ineffective due to deliberate inaction or indecision on the part of the Speaker, the court will have jurisdiction.
- However, the High Court again did not pass orders since the larger issue is pending before the Supreme Court.
The apex court recommends-
- The apex court has expressed its displeasure with the Speaker’s lack of urgency in deciding the disqualification petitions.
- A three-judge bench of the Supreme Court ruled that Speakers of assemblies and the Parliament must decide disqualification pleas within a period of three months except in extraordinary circumstances.
- This settled the law for situations where the timing of the disqualification is meddled to manipulate floor tests.
- The court also recommended that the Parliament consider taking a relook at the powers of the Speakers citing instances of partisanship.
- The court suggested independent tribunals to decide on disqualification.
Also read:
Explained: Anti-defection law and its evolution
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Fiscal deficit
Mains level: Paper 3- Monetary and fiscal policy response to deal with the crisis.
The economic crisis in the wake of the pandemic is different from past crises. In the past, the financial crisis led to economic shock. This time its economic shock that that is causing the financial crisis. This also means that our response to this crisis should also be different. This article elaborates on the fiscal and monetary policy response to the crisis.
Pattern followed by economic crises
- There is a well-established pattern to economic crises in emerging markets (EMs).
- First, because of loose fiscal and monetary policies, the economy goes into a demand overdrive.
- Demand overdrive spikes inflation and widens the current account deficit (CAD).
- Then, CAD is financed by foreign capital chasing the promise of even higher growth and asset prices.
- At some point, the overdrive is perceived as unsustainable, which triggers a reassessment of growth, inflation, and financial stability.
- Domestic and foreign investors stop new investments, large capital outflows ensue.
- Banks stop giving new loans and rolling over old ones on fears of worsening credit quality.
- Growth collapses and a full-blown economic crisis follows.
- The 1995 Mexican, the 1997 Asian, the 1999 Russian, the 2008 sub-prime, and the 2013 Taper Tantrum are all examples of such crises.
- In the case of India, the 1981-82, the 1991-92, and the 2013 crises all had the same characteristics.
Pattern in response to such crises
- The first response is to restore confidence in policymaking.
- It means large increases in interest rates, massive withdrawal of liquidity, and deep cuts in fiscal deficit.
- Just before the crisis assets [which reflects in bank’s balance sheets] are severely overvalued on inflated views of growth, profits, and income prior to the crisis.
- So, the second step is to restart the economy by restructuring the tattered balance sheets of banks, firms, and households.
- This means debt restructuring and bank recapitalisation aided by privatisation, closures, and mergers.
- These measures often need to be bolstered by structural reforms.
- The economic crisis makes it easier to forge the political consensus for the reforms.
But the economic crisis caused by pandemic is different
- Why is it different?
- Because, before the COVID-19 outbreak far from overheating, Indian economy was slowing down.
- The financial system had virtually shut off the flow of credit as it wrestled with its bad debt burden.
- This is not an instance of a financial crisis turning into an economic shock weighed down by damaged balance sheets.
- Instead, this is an instance of an economic shock that could turn into a financial crisis if the damaged balance sheets are not repaired.
So, should the response also be different?
- Yes.
- Do the opposite of what is done in a typical EM crisis: Cut interest rates, increase liquidity support, and allow the fiscal deficit to widen.
- The RBI has done the first two generously, although with the coming disinflation, it needs to cut interest rates much more.
- But, what about the fiscal policy of the government?
Fiscal policy of the government: Doing not enough
- The government’s approach to fiscal policy, however, seems ambivalent.
- The overall fiscal support from the government will be limited to 2 per cent of the GDP.
- So all the revenue shortfall and the pandemic-related budgetary support must add up to 2 per cent of the GDP.
- If the revenue shortfall is more than 2 per cent of GDP, then total spending will need to be cut.
Why fiscal policy matters for balance sheets
- In this crisis, the causality of damage to balance sheets runs opposite.
- Balance sheets will be damaged not because of prior excesses but because of the collapse in incomes during the lockdown.
- Consequently, debt doesn’t need to be restructured to resume the flow of credit and get the recovery going.
- Instead, what is needed is adequate income support to households and firms.
- Such support will provide the needed time and space for the recovery to take hold.
- Which, in turn, would repair much of the damage to the balance sheets.
- But the fiscal response so far has been inexplicably restrained.
What should the government focus on
- What matters today is the assurance of medium-term growth and not a few higher or lower points in this year’s fiscal deficit.
- To do that, the government needs to allow the deficit to rise.
- This extra deficit should help accommodate the decline in revenue and also provide adequate income support.
- Some have argued that the government, instead, needs to offset the decline on private demand by increasing public spending.
- This is an odd argument.
- It would mean letting demand collapse and then compensating it with higher government spending.
- Instead, using the same resources to ensure that private demand did not decline was the more natural and efficient response.
What should be the RBI’s response
- The RBI, too, has a very large role to play.
- As elsewhere, it is now the only entity that has a strong enough balance sheet to provide any meaningful support.
- The RBI is keeping markets flush with liquidity and low interest rates.
- However, the RBI also needs to undertake extensive quantitative easing to keep bond yields from spiking given the likely large increase in deficit.
- Because of the depth of the growth shock, bad debt will rise.
- The natural instinct of banks is to cut back credit because of worsening credit quality.
- To prevent this from happening, the RBI will need to extend substantial regulatory forbearance on accounting norms, provisioning rules, and, if needed, even capital requirements.
- In addition, like the US Fed and the ECB, the RBI might also need to provide liquidity directly to corporates.
- As of now, banks are providing liquidity to corporates supported by government guarantees as proposed now.
Consider the question “The economic crisis brought by the corona crisis is not like the ones we faced before. This crisis is about an economic shock turning into the financial crisis. So, what should be fiscal and monetary policy interventions to tackle the crisis?”
Conclusion
This is not a crisis like the ones before. This time around, we need to weigh not the cost of taking these measures but the cost of not taking them.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Permafrost, Arctic Heatwave
Mains level: Impact of climate changes
The Arctic Circle has recorded temperatures reaching over 38 degrees Celsius in the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk, likely an all-time high. The temperatures seem to have been 18 degree Celsius higher than normal in June a/c to the BBC.
Try this question from CS Mains 2017:
Q.How does the Cryosphere affect global climate?
What is happening in the Arctic?
- Since the past month, the most above-average temperatures were recorded in Siberia, where they were about 10 degrees Celsius above normal.
- Siberia has been recording higher-than-average surface air temperatures since January.
Are Arctic heatwaves common?
- This is not the first time that rising temperatures in the Arctic have created alarm.
- The rising temperatures are attributed to large-scale wind patterns that blasted the Arctic with heat, the absence of sea ice, and human-induced climate change, among other reasons.
- There has been an increase of heatwave occurrences over the terrestrial Arctic. These frequent occurrences have already started to threaten local vegetation, ecology, human health and economy.
A cause of worry for all
- Warming in the Arctic is leading to the thawing of once permanently frozen permafrost below ground.
- This is alarming scientists because as permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane previously locked up below ground is released.
- These greenhouse gases can cause further warming, and further thawing of the permafrost, in a vicious cycle known as positive feedback.
- The higher temperatures also cause land ice in the Arctic to melt at a faster rate, leading to greater run-off into the ocean where it contributes to sea-level rise.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Seabed 2030 Project
Mains level: Ocean-floor study and its significance
The Seabed 2030 Project has finished mapping nearly one-fifth of the world’s ocean floor.
The ocean relief can be divided into various parts such as Continental Shelf, Continental Slope, Continental Rise or Foot, Deep Ocean basins, Abyssal plains & Abyssal Hills, Oceanic Trenches, Seamounts and Guyots.
Revise these ocean bottom relief features from your basic references.
Also revise India’s Deep Ocean Mission.
The Seabed 2030 Project
- The global initiative is a collaboration between Japan’s non-profit Nippon Foundation and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO).
- It is the only intergovernmental organisation with a mandate to map the entire ocean floor and traces its origins to the GEBCO chart series initiated in 1903 by Prince Albert I of Monaco.
- The project was launched at the UN Ocean Conference in 2017, and coordinates and oversees the sourcing and compilation of bathymetric data from different parts of the world’s ocean.
What’s so special about this project?
- In the past, satellites and planes carrying altimeter instruments have been able to provide large swathes of data about the ocean floor.
- The Seabed 2030 Project, however, aims to obtain higher quality information that has a minimum resolution of 100 m at all spots.
- It is using equipment such as deepwater hull-mounted sonar systems, and more advanced options such as Underwater Vehicles (AUVs).
- For this, the project aims to rope in governments, private companies, and international organisations to acquire data.
Progress of the project
- Since the launch of the project in 2017, the surveying of the ocean bed as per modern standards has gone up from around 6 per cent to 19 per cent.
- The project has added 1.45 crore square kilometres of new bathymetric data to its latest grid.
Why is the study of the ocean floor important?
- Ocean topography: The knowledge of bathymetry — the measurement of the shape and depth of the ocean floor, is instrumental in understanding several natural phenomena, including ocean circulation, tides, and biological hotspots.
- Navigation: It also provides key inputs for navigation, forecasting tsunamis, exploration for oil and gas projects, building offshore wind turbines, fishing resources, and for laying cables and pipelines. This data becomes highly valuable during disaster situations.
- Climate Change study: Importantly, the maps would also ensure a better understanding of climate change, since floor features including canyons and underwater volcanoes influence phenomena ocean currents. These ocean currents act as conveyor belts of warm and cold water, thus influencing the weather and climate.
- Marine conservation: A map of the entire global ocean floor would also help further achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal to conserve and sustainably use oceans, seas and marine resources.
Try this PYQ from CSP 2012:
Q.Consider the following factors:
- Rotation of the Earth
- Air pressure and wind
- Density of ocean water
- Revolution of the Earth
Which of the above factors influence the ocean currents?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 1, 2 and 3
(c) 1 and 4
(d) 2, 3 and 4
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Malabar Rebellion 1921
Mains level: Peasants revolts in the colonial period
With the 1921 Malabar Rebellion turning 100 next year, several movies have been announced back-to-back.
Try this question from CSP 2015:
Q. Which amongst the following provided a common factor for tribal insurrection in India in the 19th century?
(a.) Introduction of a new system of land revenue and taxation- of tribal products
(b.) Influence of foreign religious missionaries in tribal areas
(c.) Rise of a large number of money lenders, traders and revenue farmers as middlemen in tribal areas
(d.) The complete disruption of the old agrarian order of the tribal communities
What is the Malabar Rebellion?
- The Malabar Rebellion in 1921 started as resistance against the British colonial rule and the feudal system in southern Malabar but ended in communal violence between Hindus and Muslims.
- There were a series of clashes between Mappila peasantry and their landlords, supported by the British, throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries.
- It began as a reaction against a heavy-handed crackdown on the Khilafat Movement, a campaign in defence of the Ottoman Caliphate by the British authorities in the Eranad and Valluvanad taluks of Malabar.
- The Mappilas attacked and took control of police stations, British government offices, courts and government treasuries.
Also in news:
Variyankunna Kunjahammed Haji
- He was one of the leaders of the Malabar Rebellion of 1921.
- He raised 75000 natives, seized control of large territory from the British rule and set up a parallel government.
- In January 1922, under the guise of a treaty, the British betrayed Haji through his close friend Unyan Musaliyar, arresting him from his hideout and producing him before a British judge.
- He was sentenced to death along with his compatriots.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Senkaku Islands
Mains level: China's territorial expansion plans
A local council in southern Japan voted to rename an area covering the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands — known by Taiwan and China as the Diaoyus — from “Tonoshiro” to “Tonoshiro Senkaku”.
Try this:
Q. Recently, Senkaku Island was in the news. Where is it located?
a) South China Sea
b) Indian Ocean
c) East China sea
d) Red sea
Senkaku Island Dispute
- The Japanese-administered island chain, formed by five islets and three barren rocks, covers an area of 7 square km.
- It is located about 200km southwest of Japan’s Okinawa Island and a similar distance northeast of Taiwan.
- Japan annexed the archipelago following China’s defeat in the first Sino-Japanese war from 1894 to 1895.
- Yet the islands were left out of the Treaty of San Francisco at the end of the second world war that returned to China most of the territories previously occupied by Japan.
- Under the terms of Japan’s surrender, the island chain was controlled by the US until 1971, when it was returned to Japan along with Okinawa and other surrounding islands.
Why are the Islands so coveted?
- The region appears to have great promise as a future oil province of the world.
- Japan and China are among the world’s top importers of fossil fuels.
- Abundant fishing resources are found nearby, as can important shipping lanes used by Japan, South Korea and China for energy imports.
- The islands have also become a focal point of the broader rivalry between the two countries.
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