Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Replacement rate
Mains level: Paper 3- Why declining population is not always a problem
Deflation. A recent (2014) study found substantial deflationary pressures from Japan’s ageing populationThe article argues that a decline in population is not always as worrisome as it is made to be.
Declining fertility rate
- China’s fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020 is well below replacement level, but so, too, are fertility rates in every rich country.
- In all developed economies, fertility rates fell below replacement in the 1970s or 1980s and have stayed there.
- In India, more prosperous states have fertility rates below replacement level, with only the poorer states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still well above.
- And while the national rate in 2018 was still 2.2, the Indian National Family Health Survey finds that Indian women would like to have, on average, 1.8 children.
- In all prosperous countries where women are well educated and free to choose whether and when to have children, fertility rates fall significantly below replacement levels.
- If those conditions spread across the world, the global population will eventually decline.
Is the declining population good or bad for the economy
- A pervasive conventional bias assumes that population decline must be a bad thing.
- But while absolute economic growth is bound to fall as populations stabilise and then decline, it is the income per capita that matters for prosperity and economic opportunity.
- It is true that when populations no longer grow, there are fewer workers per retiree, and healthcare costs rise as a percent of GDP.
- But that is offset by the reduced need for infrastructure and housing investment to support a growing population.
- A stable and eventually falling global population would make it easier to cut greenhouse-gas emissions to avoid climate change, and alleviate the pressure that growing populations inevitably place on biodiversity and fragile ecosystems.
- And contracting workforces create stronger incentives for businesses to automate while driving up real wages, which, unlike absolute economic growth, are what really matter to ordinary citizen.
- In a world where technology enables us to automate ever more jobs, the far bigger problem is too many potential workers, not too few.
- Even when the Indian economy grows rapidly, its highly productive “organised sector” of about 80 million workers, fails to create additional jobs.
- Growth in the potential workforce simply swells the huge “informal sector” army of unemployed and underemployed people.
So, when declining populations turns to be a problem?
- Fertility rates far below replacement level create significant challenges, and China may well be heading in that direction.
- At those rates, population decline will be precipitate rather than gradual.
- If Korea’s (fertility rate 1.09) birth rate does not rise, its population could fall from 51 million today to 27 million by 2100, and the ratio of retirees to workers will reach levels that no amount of automation can offset.
Conclusion
The average fertility rates well below replacement level in all developed countries, and, over time, gradually falling populations. The sooner that is true worldwide, the better for everyone.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Poverty line
Mains level: Paper 3- Counting the number of the poor
Counting the number of the poor
- If the state of the Indian economy is to be repaired, we need to meticulously count the number of the poor and to prioritise them.
- The World Bank $2-a-day poverty line might be inadequate but it would be a start and higher than the last line proposed by the C. Rangarajan committee.
- A survey in 2013 had said India stood at 99 among 131 countries, and with a median income of $616 per annum, it was the lowest among BRICS and fell in the lower-middle-income country bracket.
- Since 2013 three important data points have made it clear that the state of India’s poor needs to be acknowledged if India is to be lifted.
- The first being, the fall in the monthly per capita consumption expenditure of 2017-18 for the first time since 1972-73.
- Second is the fall of India in the Global Hunger Index to ‘serious hunger’ category.
- Third, health census data or the recently concluded National Family Health Survey or NFHS-5, which had worrying markers of increased malnutrition, infant mortality and maternal health.
- A fourth statistic, Bangladesh bettering India’s average income statistics, must also be a reason for Indians to introspect.
Increase in number of poor in India
- In 2019, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index reported that India lifted 271 million citizens out of poverty between 2006 and 2016.
- Since then, the International Monetary Fund, Hunger Watch, SWAN and several other surveys show a decided slide.
- In March, the Pew Research Center with the World Bank data estimated that ‘the number of poor in India, on the basis of an income of $2 per day or less in purchasing power parity, has more than doubled to 134 million from 60 million in just a year due to the pandemic-induced recession’.
- In 2020, India contributed 57.3% of the growth of the global poor.
- This has thrown a spanner in the so far uninterrupted battle against poverty since the 1970s.
- Urgent solutions are needed within, and the starting point of that would be only when we know how many are poor.
Debate on the poverty line
- In 2011, the Suresh Tendulkar Committee report at a ‘line’ of ₹816 per capita per month for rural India and ₹1,000 per capita per month for urban India, calculated the poor at 25.7% of the population.
- The anger over the 2011 conclusions, led to the setting up of the C. Rangarajan Committee.
- In 2014, C. Rangarajan Committee estimated that the number of poor were 29.6%, based on persons spending below ₹47 a day in cities and ₹32 in villages.
- The National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector in 2004, had concluded that 836 million Indians still remained marginalised.
- The Commission’s conclusion was ignored — that 77% of India was marginalised — emphasising that it was a problem of a much bigger magnitude, than the figure of 25.7% conveyed.
Why counting the poor matters?
1) Helps in forming public opinion
- Knowing the numbers and making them public makes it possible to get public opinion to support massive and urgent cash transfers.
- The world outside India has moved onto propose high fiscal support, as economic rationale and not charity.
- In India too, a dramatic reorientation would get support only once numbers are honestly laid out.
2) It helps in evaluating success of policies
- Recording the data helps to evaluate all policies on the basis of whether they meet the needs of the majority.
- Is a policy such as bank write-offs of loans amounting to ₹1.53-lakh crore last year, which helped corporates overwhelmingly, beneficial to the vast majority?
- This would be possible to transparently evaluate only when the numbers of the poor are known and established.
3) Helps in addressing the concerns of real majority
- If government data were to honestly account for the exact numbers of the poor, it may be more realistic to expect the public debate to be conducted on the concerns of the real majority.
- Such data would also help in creating a climate that demands accountability from public representatives.
4) To gauge the rising inequality
- India has clocked a massive rise in the market capitalisation and the fortunes of the richest Indian corporates, even as millions of Indians have experienced a massive tumble into poverty.
- To say that the stock market and the Indian economy are ‘not related’ is ingenuous.
- Indians must have the right to question whether there is a connection and if the massive rise in riches is not coincidental, but at the back of the misery of millions of the poor.
- If billionaire lists are evaluated in detail and reported upon, the country cannot shy away from counting its poor.
Conclusion
The massive slide into poverty in India that is clear in domestic and international surveys and anecdotal evidence must meet with an institutional response.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much
Mains level: Paper 2- Soft-power comparison with China
The article compares India with China in terms of soft-power both countries exert based on the measures produced by Lowy Institute in Australia.
What is soft power?
- Joseph Nye, who gave us the notion of soft power, suggests that it consists of foreign policy, cultural and political influence.
- Foreign policy influence comes from the legitimacy and morality of one’s dealings with other countries.
- Cultural influence is based on others’ respect for one’s culture.
- Political influence is how much others are inspired by one’s political values.
- Soft power is difficult to measure.
The Lowy Institute in Australia has produced various measures which correspond roughly to foreign policy influence, cultural influence and political influence.
1) India’s foreign policy influence
- In diplomatic influence, overall, India ranks sixth and China ranks first among 25 Asian powers.
- On networks, India nearly matches China in the number of regional embassies it has but is considerably behind in the number of embassies worldwide (176 to 126).
- Multilaterally, India matches China in terms of regional memberships, but, crucially, its contributions to the UN capital budget are completely dwarfed by Chinese contributions (11.7 per cent to 0.8 per cent of the total).
- In surveys of foreign policy leadership, ambition, and effectiveness, China ranks first or fourth on four measures while India ranks between fourth and sixth in Asia.
2) Cultural influence
- Lowy’s overall measure of cultural influence ranks India in fourth place and China in second place in Asia.
- Cultural influence is then divided into three elements, of which “cultural projection” and “information flows” are the most important.
- In cultural projection, India scores better on Google searches abroad of its newspapers and its television/radio broadcasts.
- India also exports more of its “cultural services” defined as “services aimed at satisfying cultural interests or needs”.
- China does better on several other indicators.
- For instance, India has only nine brands in the list of the top 500 global brands whereas China lists 73.
- On the number of UNESCO World Heritage sites, India has 37 while China has 53.
- Respect for the Indian passport also lags.
- Chinese citizens can travel visa-free to 74 countries while Indians can only do so to 60.
- In terms of information flows, in 2016–17, India hosted a mere 24,000 Asian students in tertiary education institutions whereas China hosted 2,25,000.
- On total tourist arrivals from all over the world, India received 17 million, while China received 63 million.
3) Political influence
- In 2017 the two were not ranked that far apart in political influence.
- The governance effectiveness index shows India scoring in the top 43 per cent countries worldwide and ranked 12th and China scoring in the top 32 per cent and ranked 10th.
- On “political stability and absence of violence/terrorism”, India ranked 21st, and China ranked 15th.
Consider the question “What do you understand by the term soft-power? How would you assess India’s soft-power potential in terms of various parameters?”
Conclusion
Soft-power theorists suggest that the ability to persuade rests on the power of attraction. We in India may think we are more attractive than China. The numbers show otherwise.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Disaster Management Act
Mains level: Compensation for disaster victims and its limitations
The Supreme Court has reserved its verdict seeking compensation of Rs 4 lakh to the kin of those who have died of Covid-19 or related complications. The Centre has stated that state governments cannot afford to pay this, and had argued in favor of a broader approach including health interventions.
Provisions for Compensation
- Last year, the Centre declared Covid-19 as a notified disaster under the Disaster Management Act.
- Section 12(iii) of the Act says the National Authority shall recommend guidelines for the minimum standards of relief to be provided to persons affected by disaster.
- It includes “ex gratia assistance on account of loss of life as also assistance on account of damage to houses and for restoration of means of livelihood”.
- The Centre revises this amount from time to time.
What is the latest amount?
- On April 8, 2015, the Disaster Management Division of the Home Ministry wrote to all state governments and attached a revised list of “norms of assistance”.
- Under “ex gratia payment to families of deceased persons”, it specified: Rs 4 lakh per deceased person including those involved in relief operations or associated in preparedness activities.
- This is subjected to certification regarding cause of death from appropriate authority.
So, what about compensation for Covid?
- Last year the Home Ministry wrote to state governments that the central government has decided to treat it (Covid-19) as a notified disaster for the purpose of providing assistance under SDRF.
- It attached a partially modified list of items and norms of assistance.
- It did not specify payment of ex gratia to families of deceased.
- Some states have decided to pay, but not for all deaths.
How has the government responded to the petition?
- The Centre has submitted that ex gratia of Rs 4 lakh is beyond the affordability of state governments.
- It argued that if Rs 4 lakh is paid to the kin of each, it “may possibly” consume the entire amount of the State Disaster Relief Fund (SDRF).
- This would leave states with insufficient funds for organizing a response to the pandemic, or to take care of other disasters.
- The centre argued that the term ex gratia itself means the amount is not based on legal entitlement.
Way ahead
- A broader approach, which involves health interventions, social protection, and economic recovery for the affected communities would be a more prudent, responsible, and sustainable approach.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Recusal of Judges
Mains level: Judical transparency issues
In the last week, two Supreme Court judges have recused themselves from hearing cases relating to West Bengal.
Can you list down some basic principles of judicial conduct?
Independence, Impartiality, Integrity, Propriety, Competence and diligence and Equality are some of them as listed under the Bangalore Principles of Judicial Conduct.
What is the Recusal of Judges?
- Recusal is the removal of oneself as a judge or policymaker in a particular matter, especially because of a conflict of interest.
- Recusal usually takes place when a judge has a conflict of interest or has a prior association with the parties in the case.
- For example, if the case pertains to a company in which the judge holds stakes, the apprehension would seem reasonable.
- Similarly, if the judge has, in the past, appeared for one of the parties involved in a case, the call for recusal may seem right.
- A recusal inevitably leads to delay. The case goes back to the Chief Justice, who has to constitute a fresh Bench.
Rules on Recusals
- There are no written rules on the recusal of judges from hearing cases listed before them in constitutional courts. It is left to the discretion of a judge.
- The reasons for recusal are not disclosed in an order of the court. Some judges orally convey to the lawyers involved in the case their reasons for recusal, many do not. Some explain the reasons in their order.
- The decision rests on the conscience of the judge. At times, parties involved raise apprehensions about a possible conflict of interest.
Issues with recusal
- Recusal is also regarded as the abdication of duty. Maintaining institutional civilities are distinct from the fiercely independent role of the judge as an adjudicator.
- In his separate opinion in the NJAC judgment in 2015, Justice Kurian Joseph highlighted the need for judges to give reasons for recusal as a measure to build transparency.
- It is the constitutional duty, as reflected in one’s oath, to be transparent and accountable, and hence, a judge is required to indicate reasons for his recusal from a particular case.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Cryptocurrencies
Mains level: Issues with Cryptocurrencies
China’s crackdown against cryptocurrencies, which are those that aren’t sanctioned by a centralized authority and are secured by cryptography, is said to have a lot to do with the crashing of the value of cryptocurrencies.
Background
- The price of the world’s most prominent cryptocurrency Bitcoin has more than halved in the last two months after hitting a peak in mid-April.
- The second-most valuable cryptocurrency, Ether, has seen a similar fall from its peak last month.
What is Cryptocurrency?
- A cryptocurrency is a form of digital asset based on a network that is distributed across a large number of computers.
- This decentralized structure allows them to exist outside the control of governments and central authorities.
- The word “cryptocurrency” is derived from the encryption techniques which are used to secure the network.
- Blockchains, which are organizational methods for ensuring the integrity of transactional data, are an essential component of many cryptocurrencies.
- Many experts believe that blockchain and related technology will disrupt many industries, including finance and law.
- Cryptocurrencies face criticism for a number of reasons, including their use for illegal activities, exchange rate volatility, and vulnerabilities of the infrastructure underlying them. However, they also have been praised for their portability, divisibility, inflation resistance, and transparency.
What has China done?
- In recent weeks, China has reportedly cracked down on crypto mining operations.
- The country has over the years accounted for a large percentage of the total crypto mining activity that takes place.
- In purpose, Bitcoin miners play a similar role to gold miners — they bring new Bitcoins into circulation.
- They get these as a reward for validating transactions, which require the successful computation of a mathematical puzzle.
- And these computations have become ever-increasingly complex, and therefore energy-intensive in recent years. Huge mining operations are now inevitable if one is to mine Bitcoins.
Why is Crypto mining booming in China?
- Access to cheap electricity has made mining lucrative in China.
- According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, China accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total computational power last year.
For an ‘unregulated’ market
- Actually, there is little change in the policy as far as China is concerned. It first imposed restrictions on cryptocurrencies way back in 2013.
- It then barred financial institutions from handling Bitcoin.
- Four years later, it barred what are called initial coin offerings, under which firms raise money by selling their own new cryptocurrencies.
- This is largely an unregulated market.
What does China want?
- An inter-ministerial committee report in India two years ago noted that in 2017, the government of China also banned trading between RMB (China’s currency renminbi) and cryptocurrencies.
- Before the ban, RMB made up 90% of Bitcoin trades worldwide.
- The fact that cryptocurrencies bypass official institutions has been a reason for unease in many governments.
- Not just that. The anonymity that it offers aids in the flourishing of dark trades online.
- While many countries have opted to regulate the world of cryptocurrencies, China has taken the strictest of measures over the years.
- According to observers, the latest set of measures are to strengthen its monetary hold and also project its new official digital currency.
For a digital Yuan
- China launched tests for a digital yuan in March.
- Its aim is to allow Beijing to conduct transactions in its own currency around the world, reducing dependency on the dollar which remains dominant internationally.
Also read:
Legalizing Bitcoin in El Salvador and takeaways for India
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Chicago Convention of 1944
Mains level: NA
A private commercial flight was forced to make an emergency landing in Minsk by a MiG-29 fighter jet of Belarus. The incident received considerable global attention.
How justified was Belarus in taking such a decision?
- The answer lies at the junction of Belarus’s domestic laws as a sovereign country and international laws governing the action that states can legitimately take to deal with threats to security, real or perceived.
- The issue of the use of military aircraft to neutralize potential threats posed by civilian aircraft acquired a different kind of urgency in the aftermath of terrorist attacks in the US on September 11, 2001.
- Generally speaking, international law grants sovereignty to nations over their airspace as it does in territorial waters.
The Chicago Convention of 1944
- The Convention on International Civil Aviation, better known as the Chicago Convention of 1944, to which Belarus is a signatory state, prohibits any unlawful intervention against a civilian aircraft.
- At the same time, it has various provisions under Article 9 which permit a sovereign state the right to impose restrictions.
- This includes enforced landings at a designated airport in its territory, in “exceptional circumstances or during a period of emergency, or in the interest of public safety”.
- Once a flight has landed, Article 16 provides the host country the right to board/search the aircraft.
- This is probably the clause that provided cover for the local authorities to board Mr. Morales’s aircraft in Austria in 2013.
- But the Chicago Convention applies only to civilian aircraft of the contracting parties.
Other such laws
- International law might also have to be examined in light of the International Air Services Transit Agreement (IASTA), also concluded in Chicago in 1944.
- According to this agreement, contracting states grant to one another the freedom of air transit in respect of scheduled international air services, that is, the privilege to fly across territories without landing.
- Belarus is not a signatory of IASTA.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: First-ever genetically modified rubber planted in Assam
Mains level: Hazards of using GMO crops
A Rubber Board research farm on the outskirts of Guwahati now sports the world’s first genetically modified (GM) rubber plant tailored for the climatic conditions in the Northeast.
GM rubber
- The GM rubber has additional copies of the gene MnSOD, or manganese-containing superoxide dismutase, inserted in the plant.
- The plant was developed at the Kerala-based Rubber Research Institute of India (RRII).
- It is expected to tide over the severe cold conditions during winter — a major factor affecting the growth of young rubber plants in the region.
Why need GM rubber?
- Natural rubber is a native of warm humid Amazon forests and is not naturally suited for the colder conditions in the Northeast, which is one of the largest producers of rubber in India.
- Growth of young rubber plants remains suspended during the winter months, which are also characterized by progressive drying of the soil.
- This is the reason for the long immaturity period of this crop in the region.
What does MnSOD gene offer?
- The MnSOD gene has the ability to protect plants from the adverse effects of severe environmental stresses such as cold and drought.
- Laboratory studies conducted at the RRII showed the GM rubber plants overexpressed the MnSOD gene as expected, offering protection to the cells.
- The plant is thus expected to establish well and grow fast in the region.
- There was no risk of genes flowing from the GM rubber into any other native species, a concern often raised by environmental groups against GM plants in general.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Pygmy Hogs
Mains level: NA
Few captive-bred pygmy hogs, the world’s rarest and smallest wild pigs, were released in the Manas National Park of western Assam under the Pygmy Hog Conservation Programme (PHCP).
Pygmy Hogs
- The pygmy hog (Porcula salvania) is a native to alluvial grasslands in the foothills of the Himalayas at elevations of up to 300 m (980 ft).
- Today, the only known population lives in Assam, India and possibly southern Bhutan.
- As the population is estimated at less than 250 mature individuals, it is listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List.
- It is designated as a Schedule I species in India under the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972, and offences against them invite heavy penalties.
About Pygmy Hog Conservation Programme (PHCP)
- The PHCP is a collaboration among Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust of UK, Assam Forest Department, Wild Pig Specialist Group of IUCN and Union Environment Ministry.
- It is currently being implemented by NGOs Aaranyak and EcoSystems India.
- Six hogs — two males and four females — were captured from the Bansbari range of the Manas National Park in 1996 for starting the breeding programme.
- The reintroduction programme began in 2008 with the Sonai-Rupai Wildlife Sanctuary (35 hogs), Orang National Park (59) and Barnadi Wildlife Sanctuary (22).
Now answer this PYQ in the comment box:
Q.Consider the following :
- Star tortoise
- Monitor lizard
- Pygmy hog
- Spider monkey
Which of the above found in India?
(a) 1, 2 and 3 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4
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