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Inflection point for the West-led global order

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Nord Stream 2

Mains level: Paper 2- Ukraine crisis and its implications for West-led global order

Context

The Ukraine crisis has come to a head with Russia biting the bullet and launching “a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russian invasion and response of the West

  • Hours before the invasion, the western countries had imposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow (targeting Russian individuals and banks linked to Mr. Putin’s regime).
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended certification of Nord Stream 2, a major gas pipeline between Russia and his nation.
  • The European Union has announced a “massive” package of sanctions.
  • Incoherence in response: the West has been incoherent in its response — not being able to present a united front, and worse, not even speaking the same language at times.
  •  For the West, this has been a moment when it has been found wanting — a lack of imagination, lack of will and lack of leadership, all rolled into producing a lackadaisical response to the one of most serious security crises in decades.
  • France has used this moment of crisis in trying to showcase its own leadership credentials.
  • Lack of trans-Atlantic engagement: It turns out that even Mr. Biden has not been able to build the trans-Atlantic engagement around common objectives to be pursued collectively.
  • Energy dependence: With the EU importing 39% of its total gas imports and 30% of oil from Russia, and with the Central and Eastern European countries being almost 100% dependent on Russian gas, the reasons for internal EU dissonance are not that difficult to fathom.

Implications for Indo-Pacific

  • Emboldening China: This ineffectual western response has emboldened not only Russia but also China as the focus of the West is in danger of moving away from the Indo-Pacific.
  •  The Russia-China ‘axis’ is only getting stronger as the two nations seem ready to take on the West that seems willing to concede without even putting up a fight.

Conclusion

Today, the balance of power is once again in flux, and as China develops a strategic partnership with Russia, the future of the West-led global order will be defined by how effectively it responds to the crisis in Ukraine.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

Russian actions in Ukraine hardly pass the test for strategic victory

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Suwalki corridor

Mains level: Paper 2- Implications of Russia's actions in Ukraine

Context

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched “special military operations” with the objective of “demilitarising Ukraine” but not “occupying” it.

Why it was a crisis in the making?

  • Redrawing national boundaries by force: After 1945, this is the second time that national boundaries are being redrawn by force; the first was the 1999 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) air strikes on Serbian forces that led to the creation of Kosovo.
  • Russian and Chinese protests about NATO undertaking “out of area operations” without United Nations Security Council approval carried little weight.
  • After the fall of the Berlin Wall in late-1989, then U.S. Secretary Of State had assured the Soviet President that “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction one inch to the east”.
  • Rather than look for a new European security framework, the newly independent Baltic and central European states sought security in a U.S.-led NATO.
  • Beginning in 1999, NATO has added 14 new members in stages.
  • At the NATO summit in 2008, at U.S. President George Bush’s urging, an in-principle opening for Ukraine and Georgia was announced, though France and Germany, conscious of Russian concerns, successfully opposed defining a time frame.
  • Later that year, Russia intervened in Georgia on the grounds of protecting the Russian minorities and took over the northern provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
  • Annexation of Crimea:  In 2014 Mr. Putin annexed Crimea.
  • For Russia, Crimea is vital as the peninsula hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet, providing it access to the Mediterranean and its bases at Latakia and Tartus in Syria.
  • Despite no timeline for membership, Ukraine was made a NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partner in 2020.
  • The presence of British and U.S. warships in the Black Sea began to increase.
  • In 2019, the U.K. entered into a cooperation agreement with Ukraine to develop two new naval ports, Ochakiv on the Black Sea and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov, a move that Russia saw as potentially threatening.
  • Beginning with NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and colour revolutions to engineer regime changes, the U.S.’ unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 coupled with missile defence deployments in Poland and Romania, Russia’s grievances were accumulating.

Faltering diplomacy

  • France and Germany initiated talks between Ukraine and Russia under the Normandy format leading to the Minsk agreements, in 2014 and 2015.
  • The first was for a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists and the second was between Ukraine, Russia, the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
  • Supportive declarations by France and Germany were intended to address Russian security concerns.
  • Ukraine undertook to introduce certain constitutional amendments to provide a degree of autonomy to the two provinces and Russia was to assist in withdrawal of all foreign forces.
  • However, neither side implemented and positions have only hardened since.
  • Russia’s threatening moves made NATO members, especially the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and the central Europeans like Poland and Romania, especially nervous.
  • Finally, NATO remained united but unable to provide an off-ramps solution.

Implications for Russia

  • NATO has been rejuvenated, the trans-Atlantic unity strengthened and Russia’s economic ties with Europe have been adversely impacted.
  • Given Russia’s considerable foreign exchange reserves, of nearly $640 billion, sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU may not hurt immediately but eventually will begin to bite both the oligarchs and the common people.
  • Worse, Russia will become more dependent on China — for political support as well as a market for its energy exports. 
  • This will eventually weaken its hand in central Asia.

Conclusion

For Mr Putin challenge is to constrain the adversary’s options while increasing one’s own options and space for manoeuvre. His actions this week may yield tactical gains but hardly pass the test for strategic victory.

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Nuclear Diplomacy and Disarmament

Places in news: Chernobyl

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Chernobyl Disaster

Mains level: Not Much

 

Ukrainian authorities said that radiation levels had increased in the Chernobyl exclusion zone after the Russian Invasion.

What is Chernobyl Disaster?

  • The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the No. 4 reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, near the city of Pripyat in the north of Ukraine (formerly USSR).
  • It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history both in cost and casualties.
  • It is one of only two nuclear energy accidents rated at seven—the maximum severity—on the International Nuclear Event Scale.
  • The other such incident was the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan.

Destruction caused

  • Some sources state that two people were killed in the initial explosions, whereas others report that the figure was closer to 50.
  • Dozens more people contracted serious radiation sickness; some of them later died.
  • Between 50 and 185 million curies of radionuclides (radioactive forms of chemical elements) escaped into the atmosphere.
  • This is several times more radioactivity than that created by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan.
  • This radioactivity was spread by the wind over Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine and soon reached as far west as France and Italy.

 

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Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

Who was Lachit Borphukan?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Lachit Borphukan, Battle of Saraighat

Mains level: NA

The Prime Minister has paid tribute to Lachit Borphukan on Lachit Diwas.

Who was Lachit Borphukan?

  • The year was 1671 and the decisive Battle of Saraighat was fought on the raging waters of the Brahmaputra.
  • On one side was Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb’s army headed by Ram Singh of Amer (Jaipur) and on the other was the Ahom General Lachit Borphukan.
  • He was a commander in the Ahom kingdom, located in present-day Assam.
  • Ram Singh failed to make any advance against the Assamese army during the first phase of the war.
  • Lachit Borphukan emerged victorious in the war and the Mughals were forced to retreat from Guwahati.

Lachit Diwas

  • On 24 November each year, Lachit Divas is celebrated state-wide in Assam to commemorate the heroism of Lachit Borphukan.
  • On this day, Borphukan has defeated the Mughal army on the banks of the Brahmaputra in the Battle of Saraighat in 1671.
  • The best passing out cadet of National Defence Academy has been conferred the Lachit gold medal every year since 1999 commemorating his valor.

Try this PYQ:

Q.What was the immediate cause for Ahmad Shah Abdali to invade and fight the Third Battle of Panipat?

(a) He wanted to avenge the expulsion by Marathas of his viceroy Timur Shah from Lahore

(b) The frustrated governor of Jullundhar Adina Beg khan invited him to invade Punjab

(c) He wanted to punish Mughal administration for non-payment of the revenues of the Chahar Mahal (Gujrat Aurangabad, Sialkot and Pasrur)

(d) He wanted to annex all the fertile plains of Punjab upto borders of Delhi to his kingdom

 

Post your answer here.

 

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Indian Navy Updates

In news: P-8I Aircraft

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: P-8I Aircraft

Mains level: Indian Naval Arsenal

Aviation and defence colossus Boeing delivered India’s 12th maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare P-8I aircraft.

P-8I Aircraft

  • It is a multi-mission aircraft with state of the art sensors, proven weapons systems, and a globally recognised platform.
  • The first aircraft produced by Boeing flew in 2009, and has been in service with the US Navy since 2013, the same year as the Indian Navy.
  • Apart from India and the US, it has been chosen by six other militaries in the world.
  • The aircraft has two variants — the P-8I, which is manufactured for the Indian Navy, and the P-8A Poseidon.
  • The aircraft is designed for long-range anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASuW), and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

Naval operations

  • While the Indian Navy uses it for maritime operations, the aircraft was also used in eastern Ladakh in 2020 and 2021, when the standoff with China was at its peak.
  • The aircraft for the Indian Navy are called P-8I, and have replaced the ageing Soviet/Russian Tupolev Tu-142s.

Specifications and features

  • The P-8I can fly as high as 41,000 feet, and has a short transit time, which reduces the size of the Area of Probability when searching for submarines, surface vessels or search and rescue survivors.
  • The aircraft has two engines, and is about 40 metres long, with a wingspan of 37.64 metres.
  • Each aircraft weighs about 85,000 kg, and has a top speed of 490 knots, or 789 km/hour.
  • It requires a crew of nine, and has a range of 1,200+ nautical miles, with 4 hours on station, which means about 2,222 km.
  • According to Boeing, more than 140 P-8 aircraft have “executed more than 400,000 mishap-free flight-hours around the globe”.

 

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Wildlife Conservation Efforts

Species in news: Dugong

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Dugong Conservation Reserve

Mains level: NA

India’s first Dugong conservation reserve will be built in Tamil Nadu for the conservation of Dugong, a marine mammal.

Dugong Conservation Reserve

  • The reserve will spread over an area of 500 km in Palk Bay on the southeast coast of Tamil Nadu.
  • Palk Bay is a semi-enclosed shallow water body with a water depth maximum of 13 meters.
  • Located between India and Sri Lanka along the Tamil Nadu coast, the dugong is a flagship species in the region.

Dugong: The sea cow

  • Dugong or the sea cow is the State animal of Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
  • This endangered marine species survive on seagrass and other aquatic vegetation found in the area.
  • It is the only herbivorous mammal that is strictly marine and is the only extant species in the family Dugongidae.
  • Dugongs are usually about three-meter long and weigh about 400 kg.
  • Dugongs have an expanded head and trunk-like upper lip.
  • Elephants are considered to be their closest relatives. However, unlike dolphins and other cetaceans, sea cows have two nostrils and no dorsal fin.

Their habitat

  • Distributed in shallow tropical waters in the Indo-Pacific region, in India, they are found in the Gulf of Kutch, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Bay, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
  • Dugongs are long-living animals, that have a low reproductive rate, long generation time, and high investment in each offspring.
  • The female dugongs do not bear their first calf until they are at least 10 and up to 17 years old.
  • A dugong population is unlikely to increase more than 5% per year. They take a long time to recover due to the slow breeding rate.

Causes of extinction

  • Having being declared vulnerable, the marine animal calls for conserving efforts.
  • Studies have suggested the reasons for the extinction of the animal such as slow breeding rate, fishing, and the loss of habitat.
  • They are also known to suffer due to accidental entanglement and drowning in gill-nets.

Conservation in India

  • The conservation reserve can promote growth and save vulnerable species from the verge of extinction.
  • Dugongs are protected in India under Schedule 1 of the Indian Wildlife Act 1972 which bans the killing and purchasing of dugong meat.
  • IUCN status: Vulnerable

Try answering this PYQ:

Q. With reference to ‘dugong’, a mammal found in India, which of the following statements is/are correct?

  1. It is a herbivorous marine animal.
  2. It is found along the entire coast of India.
  3. It is given legal protection under Schedule I of the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1974.

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 3 only

 

 

Post your answers here.

 

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