Context

The monumental indirect tax reform, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), has completed five years in existence. The article analyses the impact of GST on inflation.

Background

• Before the implementation, it was said that it would be a boon to the economy in terms of higher revenue buoyancy, lower inflation, higher revenue, higher growth etc.
• During the 12 months preceding GST implementation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 3.66%, while it increased to 4.24% post-GST in the next 12 months.
•  A similar pattern was observed in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.
• An Australian Competition and Consumer Commission study showed that GST initially increases inflation.

How GST can affect prices

• In theory, implementing GST should not lead to a change in overall inflation.
• The revenue-neutral rate (RNR) is calculated so that it would not cause higher inflation.
• But revenue neutrality does not mean that prices would not go up or down in the economy.
• This is because the weight of goods in the consumption basket and their contributions to indirect tax collections are not the same.
• Importantly, the effect of GST on the prices of certain goods and services depends on the structure and design of taxation.
• The RBI, in a 2017 report, showed that about half of the groups of items that GST covers are not in the CPI basket.
• So, the effect of GST on prices was expected to be small.
• Finally, prior to the GST implementation, it was expected that prices would go down because GST harmonises indirect tax rates and eliminates the cascading effect.
• Thus, whether GST has any effect depends on how different factors affect each other.

So, how can we ascertain whether GST has had an inflationary impact in India?

• Inflationary impact can be assessed by turning to statistical modeling?
• Statistical results provide us with an interesting picture of the impact of GST on price levels.
• First, we look into the overall price index (CPI).
• Here, the actual CPI growth in the study period is 4.61%, whereas the counterfactual estimate of inflation is 3.24%.
• This implies that without the GST implementation, the CPI inflation would have been 3.24%.
• This indicates that with the implementation of GST, CPI increased by 1.37 percentage points (pp).
• Second,  CPI core inflation (which strips off volatile components such as food and fuel from the headline inflation) increased by 1.04pp in the post-GST period (actual inflation was 4.57%, counterfactual inflation was 3.53%).
• Third, GST is found to have a significant positive impact on inflation of commodity groups such as paan, tobacco and intoxicants, clothing.

What explains rise in inflation post GST?

• Rise in tax rate of some goods: The rise in inflation post-GST implementation could be due to the rise in the tax rate of some goods and services, the inclusion of business activities that were not taxed earlier, or the market structure.
• The average weighted GST rate was designed to be neutral, so it might not have contributed much to the observed higher inflation.
• Coverage of business activities under GST not taxed earlier would result in higher prices since the firms would pass on the cost to the consumers.
• Market power: There is another possibility which would cause result inflation after the GST implementation.
• As Joseph Stiglitz opined, rising market power is bad for the economy as it raises economic inefficiency and inequality and lowers the economy’s resiliency.
• Further, taking advantage of market power, it is possible that most firms would have passed the taxes to end consumers.
• With the existence of market power, firms’ price includes a significant mark-up over marginal costs.
• Some results point out the possibility of profiteering in select segments after GST.
• To pre-empt this possibility, the government set up National Anti-profiteering Authority (NAA).

Way forward

•  NAA should monitor the prices of critical or essential goods and services to see the price impact of GST.
• Similarly, the Competition Commission of India should observe anti-competitive producer behaviour that hurts consumers via excessive price increases.
• These measures may ensure that producers do not take advantage of the GST.

Conclusion

Statistical results suggest that GST implementation has resulted in a decrease in inflation of food items and raised inflation of non-food items.

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Context

All emerging markets (EMs), including India, are facing outflows of foreign portfolio investment as the US Fed tightens.

Inflatioon and exchange rate

• Exchange rate as response to capital flow: Canonical inflation targeting wants exchange rates to float as the correct response to capital flows.
• Policy should respond to exchange rate fluctuations only after they affect inflation or output.
• Any interest rate defence of the exchange rate would reduce the focus on inflation.
• But most EMs intervene in foreign exchange (FX) markets in order to reduce volatility.
• A research paper by Edward F Buffie and co-authors indicate that  FX intervention greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting.
• Two instruments for two targets work better than trying to do everything through the interest rate.
• Excess depreciation of currency can raise inflation.
• Other researches such as from the IMF, argues for the use of prudential capital flow management techniques and finds reserve accumulation and its use reduces risks and crises in EMs.

Policies followed by RBI to reduce volatility

• Not fully convertible: RBI’s sequenced approach to capital account convertibility, where, for example, debt inflows are only allowed as a percentage of domestic markets, saved it from the kind of interest rate volatility Indonesia experienced during the taper tantrum and is helping it now.
• More liberalisation measures can be taken when needed.
• India’s large foreign exchange reserves have allowed rupee depreciation to be lower than most other countries as the dollar strengthens.
• The cost of holding foreign exchange: There are costs of holding large reserves and of too much intervention.
• The central bank ends up supporting the US and not its own government borrowing and it sacrifices interest income.
• But holding reserves and then not using them when required is the most costly.
• Again use of multiple instruments can mitigate over-reliance on intervention.
• Much research and recent experience suggest that all available instruments should be used to moderate volatility in nominal variables.

Why increasing interest rates will be ineffective in reducing capital outflow

•  A common suggestion is to raise policy rates to maintain a historical gap with US Fed rates.
• But such an interest rate defence did not prevent outflows during the taper tantrum or in 2018 and only triggered a slowdown.
• It forgets that interest-sensitive flows are only about 8 per cent of India’s foreign liabilities.
• There have been no debt outflows in 2022 despite a narrowing interest differential.
• Equity outflows also seem to be tapering.
• Monetary tightening that dampens expectations of growth, induces more outflows as country risk-premiums rise.

Issues with less intervention

• Some want less intervention and more rupee depreciation in order to improve the current account deficit.
•  But less intervention can lead to a chaotic fall and jittery markets as we saw in 2011.
• It is best for policy to prevent over-depreciation due to global risks.
• After about 4 per cent nominal depreciation, India’s real effective exchange rate against a basket of 40 countries is approaching 100.
• That implies the real exchange rate is too depreciated since India has had relatively more structural reform and productivity growth.
• Future corrections toward equilibrium will require a rise of the rupee.
• High oil prices are a risk for India’s balance of payments, but multiple types of adjustments have the best chance of succeeding.

Why sometimes policy changes are introduced as surprise?

• Market participants want clear communication and no surprises for markets.
• Forward guidance is an important part of inflation targeting. But when markets tend to overreact and are influenced more by the US than by Indian policy, the best way to introduce a policy change may be by surprise.
• Thus markets had priced in excessive rate hikes after the US Fed began tightening.
• The steep surprise hike in Indian repo rates prevented additional rate hikes from being priced in as domestic rate-rising began.

Conclusion

Inflation targeting is an art that requires skill, attention to context and an open mind.

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Back2Basics: Real Effective Exchange Rate

• The real effective exchange rate (REER) is the weighted average of a country’s currency in relation to an index or basket of other major currencies.
• The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balance of a country’s currency against that of each country in the index.
• An increase in a nation’s REER is an indication that its exports are becoming more expensive and its imports are becoming cheaper.
• It is losing its trade competitiveness.

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