Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: Free trade agreements and its advantages
Central Idea
- With a projected 7 per cent growth for the ongoing year, the Indian economy is set to register the highest growth rate across all the major economies of the world. Moreover, Indian growth story for the years to come will be shaped by the unfolding geoeconomic and geopolitical forces that will sustain its consumption-driven-growth phenomenon, further driving investment and production.
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What is Regional Trade Agreement (RTA)?
- RTA is a treaty between two or more countries in a particular region that aims to reduce or eliminate trade barriers, such as tariffs and quotas, to facilitate increased trade between the member countries.
- RTAs can take various forms, such as Free Trade Agreements, Customs Unions, Common Markets, and Economic Unions.
What is Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?
- FTA is a specific type of RTA that eliminates tariffs and other trade barriers on goods traded between the member countries.
- FTAs may also include provisions on trade in services and investment, but they are primarily focused on reducing tariffs on goods.
- From 2021, there has been a sudden spurt in signing bilateral trade agreements by India.
- The India-Mauritius CECPA in 2021, India-UAE CEPA and Australia-India ECTA in 2022, are some examples.
- Talks on these grounds with the UK and Canada are in advanced stages,
- Serious intentions on inking FTAs with the EU and Israel have also been expressed.
Geoeconomic Implications
- India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA):
- Western QUAD: The India-UAE CEPA strengthens Indian commitment with I2U2 (i.e. Israel, India, UAE and the United States), also referred to as the western QUAD, a regional force convened in October 2021.
- Access to the western neighbours: This agreement provides India an access to the western neighbours that can facilitate the process of negotiating trade agreements in the absence of China.
- Advantage for India-GCC FTA: It puts India a step ahead towards having an India-GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) FTA, thereby ameliorating its relations with the gulf nations.
- Boost to economy: On the economic front, the trade pact is envisioned to almost double bilateral commodity trade by 2027, increase service trade and generate 10 lakh jobs in labour-intensive sectors.
- The Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA)
- The Australia-India ECTA boosts Australia-India ties on various fronts, including geopolitical one.
- Once a more comprehensive FTA, i.e. the CECA (Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement) gets inked between the two nations, various other areas such as services, investments, government procurement and intellectual property will be covered.
- Even within the QUAD, the strong relationship between Australia and India will help in creating an Australia-India niche.
- Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)
- The IPEF, an economic initiative driven by the Biden administration with a total of fifteen participating member nations, presents the massive potential to ink a regional trade agreement and create a trade bloc without China.
- If that happens, India, being a member, will definitely be a beneficiary.
How FTA’s will lead to Consumption-driven growth?
- FTAs boosting consumption demand, this can happen through two avenues.
- Increase consumption choice: The FTAs will enable cheaper imports of commodities and will increase the consumption choice.
- Multiplier effect on domestic incomes: The second is that the direct multiplier effect of enhanced trade and increased employment will have its multiplier effect on domestic incomes.
- Increase purchasing power: Both the forces combined together will increase the purchasing power of the consumers, and increase consumption demand.
Factors that put India at Competitive Advantage
- India’s demographic dividend: India’s competitive advantage lies with its comparative demographic dividend over China. The under-30 population in India, being about 52 percent, compares favorably with around 40 percent for China, which is going to shrink faster over the next decade. The young population is expected to boost consumption, savings and investments, and will drive consumption-led-growth.
- Low wage and thereby Cost-competitiveness: Second, as per 2019 estimates, the average Indian wage is 10% of that of China, thereby rendering relative cost-competitiveness to the products manufactured in India as compared to China. This is already enticing foreign investment.
- National Infrastructure Pipeline: India’s massive emphasis on physical infrastructure through projects like the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) for FY 2019-25 and transport sector growth will reduce the transaction costs of doing business.
- Reforms in business environment: India has been working extensively to reform its business environment through effective policy practices be it through measures like Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, or bringing about substantial changes in its tax regimes, liberalization of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policies in manufacturing, etc.
- Digital literacy: It entails digital literacy and English language skills. On both counts, the Indian youth is way ahead of China.
- Strong Indian Diplomacy: Indian diplomacy is also playing an important role with trade agreements being used as important instruments of diplomacy. This is true for the UAE, Australia, and the partnerships like QUAD (or even IPEF), and I2U2.
Conclusion
- No doubt, FTAs are emerging as important tools for economic diplomacy for India for deeper levels of engagement with friendly nations. At the same time, the FTAs are two-level games for India. At the international level, it has to negotiate with the concerned nation/s, while at the domestic level it has to negotiate with various contending constituencies. Yet, FTAs’ role as a growth driver through trade and investment cannot be ignored. In addition, with India becoming the most populous nation in the world, surpassing China in January 2023, it presents itself as the largest product and factor market to the global community.
Mains Question
Q. What are FTAs and RTAs? India is enhancing its FTAs and RTAs in recent times. Discuss how it will contribute to the growth of the economy.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: Russia-Ukraine war, global implications , Food and energy cisis
Central Idea
- To be sure, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has thrown the energy markets into a crisis in several Global South nations. In addition, the supply cuts by edible-oil exporting countries, alongside the rise in fuel prices, have led to a surge in food prices, making food security a primary concern, especially for the vulnerable sections of society. In addition, China’s COVID-19 surge has dampened global economy, especially in BoB.
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How the South Asian neighbourhood is in flux?
- Sri Lanka and Pakistan: Sri Lanka and Pakistan are facing economic headwinds, with the former having gone through a full-blown economic collapse and the latter facing huge external debts, power shortages, and extreme inflation.
- Bangladesh: The IMF sanctioned a precautionary loan of US $4.7 billion to Bangladesh amidst the precarious macroeconomic situation in the country, with high inflation and volatility of the Bangladeshi Taka.
- Myanmar: A post-coup Myanmar sees a shutdown of businesses and a massive spike in unemployment.
- Nepal: Nepal, too, sees widening trade deficits and declining foreign exchange reserves.
How Russia-Ukraine war challenges Food security?
- Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting food crisis: Ukraine and Russia play a significant role in the global food supply chains, further affecting low- and middle-income countries and vulnerable populations already grappling with hunger in the post-pandemic world.
- Wheat suppliers: Since both countries exported more than one-third of the world’s wheat and barley, and about 70 percent of sunflower oil, governments around the world were severely hit as the war stopped exports of around 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain.
- Agricultural commodities exports to Asia have dried up: An estimated 6 million tons of agricultural commodities were exported monthly to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. As of June 2022, this number had dried up to a fifth of its original value.
- Ripple effects on food prices and availability: According to the United Nations’ (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food prices have risen by 20 percent. It further predicts a rise in the undernourished population to be between 7.6 to 13.1 million, because of the conflict situation and its ripple effects on food prices and availability.
Sri Lanka: A case of Food security crisis
- The economic meltdown in Sri Lanka wreaked havoc on the food security of the local population.
- For Sri Lanka, the sudden switch to organic farming in 2021 worsened its trade performance in the agricultural sector.
- The island nation had to import sugar, rice, and various other commodities, including intermediate goods in which the economy had had a previous surplus.
- By 2022, the tea industry, which was a major commodity of exchange, incurred losses of approximately US $425 million, further worsening the economy’s foreign exchange situation.
Energy crisis
- Heavy on energy imports: The data analysis on energy imports shows that all the countries in Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), especially India, Myanmar, and Bhutan, rely heavily on energy imports.
- Fuel dependency makes the region highly vulnerable to external shocks: The trade dependency on fuel is a major curse for the region, making it highly vulnerable to exogenous macroeconomic shocks. The Russia-Ukraine conflict underscores the importance of nations having self-reliance regarding energy.
- Absence of infrastructure and synchronisation in BIMSTEC Grid plan: Despite the BIMSTEC countries having developed a ‘Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation in BIMSTEC’ and also signed a MoU for the establishment of the BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection in August 2018, the absence of required infrastructure and adaptive power market, the lack of synchronisation of the grid system, the lack of financial policies, and other related issues have made progress in energy cooperation slow among the countries in the region.
- Unable to set in motion the transition to renewable energy, alongside heavy dependence on fuel imports, Bangladesh, especially, has been placed in a tough spot concerning energy security.
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has added more fuel to this fire. With energy prices climbing upwards and subsidy bills increasing, the fiscal balances and current account deficits have been worrisome for Bangladesh’s economy.
- The government had to finally put in place some austerity measures. The domestic prices of diesel, kerosene, octane, and petrol were increased to achieve price parity with its neighbours such as India, China, and Nepal.
Way ahead
- Safeguard against food security crisis: It becomes imperative for regional groupings to set up safeguards against crises where their food security is affected by geopolitical events and domestic macroeconomic threats.
- Food Bank for BIMSTEC: The idea of a food bank for the BIMSTEC countries modelled on the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) Food Bank is a good start as it will aid in stabilising prices.
- India urged to develop regional strategy and promoting millets: Recently, in November 2022, India hosted the second Agriculture Ministerial-level meeting of the BIMSTEC nations, where it urged the member countries to develop a regional strategy for transforming agriculture and promoting millets into the food systems.
- Millets have potential to ameliorate food insecurity: Promotion and intra-regional trade of food items such as millets, where these countries have surplus production, can help ameliorate food insecurity to a large extent.
- Self-reliance in energy: Overdependence on fuel will make the region more vulnerable and affect its financial stability. Therefore, developing a domestic energy market is critical for the region. This can be achieved by accelerating the green transition.
- For instance: FDI from Japanese firms has constantly seen more impacts and spillovers in the Indian economy. If Japanese firms’ economies of scale and their potential in developing different green energy technologies could be fully utilised, it would reduce the regional dependence on China, which is currently the dominant player in the domain of solar energy.
Conclusion
- Regional economies have huge potential to invest in research for green transition technologies and sustainable agriculture which can help them have self-reliant energy and food markets respectively. Led by India, the Bay of Bengal region can lead the way in innovations in renewable forms of energy such as solar and wind.
Mains Question
Q. The South Asian neighbourhood is in flux. Discuss the major challenges and suggest a way ahead.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Ransomware, Recent events of Cyberattacks and malwares
Mains level: Cyberattacks, cyber security infrastructure. Read the attached article
Central Idea
- The past few weeks have highlighted the soft underbelly of our fast-expanding digital networks. Ransomwares have emerged as the most predominant of malicious cyberattacks. Here, the perpetrators demand hefty payments for the release of withheld data. Data show that over 75% of Indian organisations have faced such attacks, with each breach costing an average of ₹35 crore of damage.
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Two recent ransomware attacks
- Ransomware attack on AIIMS: The first was the ransomware attack on the servers of India’s premium institute, the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences. Nearly 40 million health records were compromised and it took over two weeks for the systems to be brought online.
- BlackCat breached Solar Industries Ltd.: Soon afterwards, a ransomware gang, BlackCat, breached the parent company of Solar Industries Limited, one of the Ministry of Defence’s ammunition and explosives manufacturers, and extracted over 2 Terabyte of data.
What is mean by Cyber-attack?
- Cyberattacks are unwelcome attempts to steal, expose, alter, disable or destroy information through unauthorized access to computer systems.
- These attacks can target various entities such as governments, businesses, organizations, or individuals, and can have serious consequences such as theft of sensitive information, financial loss, reputational damage, or disruption of critical services.
Who is behind cyberattacks?
- Criminal organizations, state actors and private persons can launch cyberattacks against enterprises. One way to classify cyberattack risks is by outsider versus insider threats.
- Outsider threats: External cyber threats include; Organized criminals or criminal groups Professional hackers, like state-sponsored actors, Amateur hackers, like hacktivists
- Insider threats: Insider threats are users who have authorized and legitimate access to a company’s assets and abuse them either deliberately or accidentally. They include, Employees careless of security policies and procedures, Disgruntled current or former employees, Business partners, clients, contractors or suppliers with system access
Growing vulnerability
- There are malwares that could infect all kinds of computer systems: With the lines between the physical and digital realms blurring rapidly, every critical infrastructure, from transportation, power and banking systems, would become extremely vulnerable to the assaults from hostile state and non-state actors.
- For instance; Cyber capabilities are also playing a pivotal role: As seen in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where electronic systems in warheads, radars and communication devices have reportedly been rendered ineffective using hacking and GPS jamming.
- Cyber security breaches would only increase: With the introduction of 5G and the arrival of quantum computing, the potency of malicious software, and avenues for digital security breaches would only increase.
- For instance: This year, cybercrimes are expected to cause damage worth an estimated $8 trillion worldwide.
- CERT-In: In 2022, the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), which is India’s cybersecurity agency, introduced a set of guidelines for organisations to comply with when connected to the digital realm. This included the mandatory obligation to report cyberattack incidents within hours of identifying them, and designating a pointsperson with domain knowledge to interact with CERT-In.
- Draft Digital Personal Protection Bill, 2022: India’s draft Digital Personal Protection Bill 2022 proposes a penalty of up to ₹500 crore for data breaches.
- Defence Cyber Agency (DCyA): Recently, India’s armed forces created a Defence Cyber Agency, capable of offensive and defensive manoeuvres. All Indian States have their own cyber command and control centres.
- Cybercrime Co-ordination centre: The Indian Cybercrime Co-ordination Centre (I4C) established by the Ministry of Home Affairs, acts as a nodal point in the response against cybercrime by coordinating with state police forces across the country. It also co-ordinates the implementation of mutual legal assistance treaties (MLAT) with other countries.
Have you heard about “Bluebugging”?
- It is a form of hacking that lets attackers access a device through its discoverable Bluetooth connection.
- Once a device or phone is blue-bugged, a hacker can listen to the calls, read and send messages and steal and modify contacts.
- It started out as a threat for laptops with Bluetooth capability. Later hackers used the technique to target mobile phones and other devices.
Limitations In India’s cybersecurity infrastructure
- Lack of tools to identify: Most organisations lack the tools to identify cyberattacks, let alone prevent them.
- Scarcity of cybersecurity professional: India also faces an acute scarcity of cybersecurity professionals. India is projected to have a total workforce of around 3,00,000 people in this sector in contrast to the 1.2 million people in the United States.
- Private sector participation is limited: Most of our organizations are in the private sector, and their participation remains limited in India’s cybersecurity structures.
Global understanding is essential
- International cooperation is critical: With most cyberattacks originating from beyond our borders, international cooperation would be critical to keep our digital space secure. It would also be a cause which would find resonance abroad.
- Cybersecurity treaties: India has already signed cybersecurity treaties, where the countries include the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, South Korea and the European Union.
- Multinational frameworks are there but there is no truly global framework: Even in multinational frameworks such as the Quad and the I2U2 (which India is a member of) there are efforts to enhance cooperation in cyber incident responses, technology collaboration, capacity building, and in the improvement of cyber resilience. Yet, there is no truly global framework, with many operating in silos.
- UNGA established two processes on ICT: The United Nations General Assembly establish two processes on the issues of security in the information and communication technologies (ICT) environment.
- The Open-ended Working Group (OEWG), comprising the entire UN membership, established through a resolution by Russia.
- The other is the resolution by the U.S., on the continuation of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE), comprising 25 countries from all the major regions.
- Differ vastly on many aspects of Internet: The two antagonistic permanent members of the UN Security Council, counted among India’s most important strategic partners, differ vastly on many aspects of the Internet, including openness, restrictions on data flow, and digital sovereignty. Amidst the turbulent current world events, these UN groups would struggle to have effective dialogues.
Conclusion
- The G-20 summit this year in India, which will see participation by all the stakeholders driving the global levers of power, is a rare opportunity to bring together domestic and international engagement groups across the spectrum, and steer the direction of these consultations. India could make an effort to conceptualize a global framework of common minimum acceptance for cybersecurity. This would be one of the most significant contributions made by any nation towards collective security in modern times.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Social Stock Exchange (SSE)
Mains level: Not Much
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has received final approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to set up a Social Stock Exchange (SSE) as a separate segment of the NSE.
What is a Social Stock Exchange?
- Social Stock Exchange (SSE) is a platform that connects social enterprises with investors who are looking for social impact along with financial returns.
- Social enterprises are organizations that prioritize social impact over profits.
- SSE aims to provide these organizations with access to capital markets and raise awareness about social investment opportunities.
Who can get listed for SSEs?
- Any social enterprise, Non-Profit Organisation (NOPs) or For-Profit Social Enterprises (FPEs), that establishes its primacy of social intent can get registered or listed on the Social Stock Exchange segment.
- Eligible NPOs can begin by registering on the SSE segment.
- After onboarding, NPOs can initiate the fund mobilization process by issuing instruments such as Zero Coupon Zero Principal (ZCZP) via a public issue or private placement.
- Currently, the regulations have prescribed a minimum issue size of Rs 1 crore and a minimum application size for the subscription of Rs 2 lakhs for ZCZP issuance.
How will SSE work?
- The SSE will be a separate segment on the NSE, where social enterprises can list their securities.
- These securities will be available for trading to investors who are interested in social impact investing.
- The SSE will also provide a range of services such as capacity building, impact measurement, and reporting to help social enterprises improve their operations and measure their social impact.
Benefits of SSE
- For social enterprises, SSE will provide access to capital markets and help them raise funds for their social projects.
- For investors, SSE will provide a platform to invest in social enterprises and contribute to social impact.
- SSE will also create a transparent marketplace where investors can assess the social impact of their investments.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Section 153A of IPC
Mains level: Free speech and defamation
Central idea: A politician was recently arrested under Section 153A of IPC for the alleged use of objectionable words against the Prime Minister.
Section 153A: What the law says
- Section 153A of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) penalises “promoting enmity between different groups on grounds of religion, race, place of birth, residence, language, etc., and doing acts prejudicial to maintenance of harmony”.
- This is punishable with imprisonment up to three years, or with fine, or with both.
- The provision was enacted in 1898 and was not in the original penal code.
- At the time of the amendment, promoting class hatred was a part of the English law of sedition, but was not included in the Indian law.
Charges laid for remarks against PM
The FIR mentioned the use of Sections-
- 153B(1) (Making imputations, assertions prejudicial to national integration);
- 295A (Deliberate and malicious acts, intended to outrage religious feelings of any class by insulting its religion or religious beliefs);
- 500 (Defamation); and
- 504 (Intentional insult with intent to provoke breach of the peace).
Conviction rates under Section 153A
- Data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) show that the rate of conviction for Section 153A is very low.
- In 2020, 1,804 cases were registered, six times higher than the 323 cases in 2014.
- However, the conviction rate in 2020 was 20.2%, suggesting that the process often becomes the punishment.
Issues with the law
- Hate speech laws have been invoked under regimes of all parties to crack down on criticism of public functionaries and to arrest individuals.
- The invocation of Section 153A is often criticized for restricting free speech and misusing the legal processes for political purposes.
Safeguards against misuse
- Given that the provisions are worded broadly, there are safeguards against its misuse.
- For example, Sections 153A and 153B require prior sanction from the government for initiating prosecution.
- But this is required before the trial begins, and not at the stage of preliminary investigation.
- To curb indiscriminate arrests, the Supreme Court laid down a set of guidelines in its 2014 ruling in Arnesh Kumar v State of Bihar.
- As per the guidelines, for offenses that carry a sentence of fewer than seven years, the police cannot automatically arrest an accused before investigation.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Caveat
Mains level: Not Much
Recently, the Supreme Court bench reprimanded a law student for filing a caveat in a petition seeking menstrual leave for female students and working women across Indian institutions.
What is a Caveat?
- In common parlance, a caveat refers to “warning” or “caution”.
- However, legally it connotes a “formal notice requesting the court to refrain from taking some specified action without giving prior notice to the person lodging the caveat.”
- The person lodging the caveat is called a “caveator”.
- The provision was inserted by the Amendment Act of 1976 after the Law Commission’s recommendation by Section 148A of the Civil Procedure Code (CPC).
- However, the term is not expressly defined anywhere except in the Calcutta High Court’s 1978 ruling.
Who can fill the Caveat?
- Any person has a right to lodge a caveat in a Court.
- Any person claiming a right to appear before the Court on the hearing of such application may lodge a caveat in respect thereof.
- The caveator or the person lodging is also required to serve a notice of the caveat by “registered post” to the person on whose plea they are lodging the application
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: CCR5-delta 32 mutation
Mains level: Not Much
Central idea: This article discusses recent developments in the field of HIV research that have led to the possibility of a cure for the disease.
What is HIV/AIDS?
- HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks cells that help the body fight infection, making a person more vulnerable to other infections and diseases.
- First identified in 1981, HIV is the cause of one of humanity’s deadliest and most persistent epidemics.
- It is spread by contact with certain bodily fluids of a person with HIV, most commonly during unprotected sex, or through sharing injection drug equipment.
- If left untreated, HIV can lead to the disease AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome).
- The human body can’t get rid of HIV and no effective HIV cure exists.
Present treatment of HIV
- However, by taking HIV medicine (called antiretroviral therapy or ART), people with HIV can live long and healthy lives and prevent transmitting HIV to their sexual partners.
- In addition, there are effective methods to prevent getting HIV through sex or drug use, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP).
What is the new breakthrough?
- Doctors selected a donor carrying two copies of a CCR5-delta 32 genetic mutation – a mutation that is known to make the carriers almost immune to HIV.
- The CCR5-delta 32 genetic mutation is a rare genetic mutation that affects the CCR5 gene, which is involved in the immune system’s response to infection.
- The mutation causes a deletion of 32 nucleotides in the gene, resulting in a truncated or shortened version of the CCR5 protein.
- This truncated protein is not able to function normally, and people with this mutation are largely resistant to HIV infection.
How has the CCR5-delta 32 mutation been used in HIV research?
- Researchers have been studying the CCR5-delta 32 mutation as a potential avenue for developing an HIV cure.
- One approach involves using gene editing technologies like CRISPR to induce the mutation in HIV-positive individuals, effectively making their immune cells resistant to HIV infection.
- Another approach involves bone marrow transplantation from donors with the CCR5-delta 32 mutation.
What are the risks associated?
- Gene editing technologies like CRISPR are still in their early stages, and there are concerns about the safety and effectiveness of these methods.
- Additionally, bone marrow transplantation is a complex and risky procedure that is not feasible for all HIV-positive individuals.
- Finally, it is important to note that not all HIV infections are caused by the CCR5 strain of the virus, and therefore the use of the CCR5-delta 32 mutation as an HIV cure would not be effective for all cases of HIV.
Prevalence of HIV/AIDS in India
- As per the India HIV Estimation 2019 report, the estimated adult (15 to 49 years) HIV prevalence trend has been declining in India since the epidemic’s peak in the year 2000 and has been stabilizing in recent years.
- In 2019, HIV prevalence among adult males (15–49 years) was estimated at 0.24% and among adult females at 0.20% of the population.
- There were 23.48 lakh Indians living with HIV in 2019.
- Maharashtra had the maximum at 3.96 lakh followed by Andhra Pradesh (3.14 lakh) and Karnataka.
- ART is freely available to all those who require and there are deputed centres across the country where they can be availed from.
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