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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

China-India Relations: A Path to Cooperation and Global Growth

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: India- China potential for collaboration and China's inconsistencies in its words and actions

China

Central Idea

  • In a surprising turn of events, Ma Jia, China’s top diplomat to India, recently emphasized the potential for collaboration between China and India to promote global economic recovery and growth. While such statements from Chinese officials during summits are not uncommon, it is crucial to bridge the gap between China’s rhetoric and actions.

Beginning of India-China Relations

  • The two countries have played up their cultural links-such through the importation of Buddhism into China by wandering Chinese monks more than 1,500 years ago.
  • India and China got independence from the British yoke at the almost same time in the late 1940s. India and China established diplomatic relations on 1st April 1950.
  • India was the first non-socialist country to establish relations with the People’s Republic of China and the catchphrase ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’ became famous.
  • Both countries attended the Asian-African Conference in which 29 countries participated in Bandung, Indonesia and jointly advocated the Bandung Spirit of solidarity, friendship and cooperation

Potential for collaboration to promote global economic recovery and growth

  • Trade and Investment: China and India can enhance trade relations by reducing trade barriers, promoting fair and balanced trade practices, and exploring new areas of economic cooperation. Increased bilateral investments and the establishment of joint ventures can stimulate economic growth and create employment opportunities in both countries.
  • Infrastructure Development: Collaboration in infrastructure projects, such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications, can foster economic growth and connectivity. Joint investments in projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) can create synergies and facilitate regional trade.
  • Technology and Innovation: Joint research and development initiatives, exchange programs for scientists and technologists, and collaboration in emerging sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and digital technologies can drive innovation and productivity.
  • Manufacturing and Supply Chains: Collaboration in manufacturing and supply chains can enhance the competitiveness of both countries. By leveraging each other’s strengths, such as China’s manufacturing capabilities and India’s skilled workforce, they can create a robust ecosystem for production and supply of goods.
  • Financial Cooperation: Strengthening financial cooperation can facilitate economic recovery and growth. Enhanced cooperation in banking, investment, and capital markets can promote financial stability, facilitate cross-border investments, and support infrastructure financing.
  • Tourism and Cultural Exchanges: Encouraging tourism and cultural exchanges can foster people-to-people connections and deepen mutual understanding. Joint initiatives to promote tourism, exchange programs for students, and cultural festivals can boost bilateral relations and contribute to economic growth in the hospitality and tourism sectors.
  • Sustainable Development: Collaborating on sustainable development initiatives, such as renewable energy, climate change mitigation, and environmental protection, can benefit both countries and contribute to global goals. Joint efforts to address common challenges like air and water pollution can lead to cleaner and greener economies.
  • Regional and Global Cooperation: China and India can work together to address regional and global challenges, such as promoting regional integration, ensuring open and inclusive multilateralism, and strengthening institutions like the BRICS, SCO, and G20

China

Abnormalities in the India-China bilateral relationship

  • Rhetoric vs. Actions: There are inconsistency between the rhetoric of China’s top diplomats, such as Ma Jia, who express a desire for collaboration and growth, and the critical pieces published by state-run media outlets like the Global Times, which constantly criticize India. This discrepancy raises questions about China’s true intentions
  • Lack of Normalcy: India’s Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar, has openly admitted that the ties between India and China are not normal. This acknowledgment points to an abnormality in the relationship, which is likely attributed to the various contentious issues and conflicts between the two nations.
  • Unresolved Border Disputes: The ongoing border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), have created a significant abnormality in the relationship. The lack of resolution and recurring incidents of incursions and military standoffs have led to tensions and strained bilateral ties.
  • Strategic Motivations and Power Dynamics: China’s actions are driven by its desire to establish itself as a dominant power in Asia and the world, while potentially seeking to diminish India’s influence. This power dynamic and China’s perceived attempts to “cut India to size” contribute to the abnormality in their bilateral relationship.
  • Lack of Respect and Disenchantment: India’s belief that China’s foreign policy narrative is built on a lack of respect from the West. India expects China to treat rising powers like India with respect and acknowledge its growing significance as an Asian and global power. The perceived lack of respect and increasing disenchantment further strain the bilateral relationship.
  • Aggressive Posturing and Border Tensions: China’s aggressive actions along the borders, including capturing uninhabitable high grounds and pushing India into military alliances with the West, have intensified border tensions. These actions exacerbate the abnormality and pose challenges to the prospect of cooperation.
  • Shift in India’s Perception: The clashes in Galwan and China’s belligerent behavior have led to a shift in India’s perception of China. India’s increasing disenchantment with China’s behavior, particularly in terms of its promises of cooperation, has altered India’s approach and reduced the scope for cooperation in the current equilibrium.
  • Hesitations and Disillusionment: India’s initial enthusiasm for Asian multilateralism and cooperation, as demonstrated by its participation in initiatives like the RCEP negotiations and the AIIB, has been met with hesitations and disillusionment due to China’s behavior. This disenchantment contributes to the abnormality in their relationship.

Three proposed key steps to mend ties and pave the way for cooperation 

  • Psychological Makeover and Pragmatism: If Beijing truly desires to work with India, it should undergo a psychological makeover and inject pragmatism into its South Asia policy. This entails a shift away from dogmas and a recognition of India’s rising power and influence. China needs to treat India with respect and acknowledge it as an indispensable Asian and global power. Adopting a pragmatic approach will help bridge the gap between China’s desire for collaboration and its actions.
  • Good Faith Measures: Accompanying the psychological makeover, the article emphasizes the need for good faith measures. Calming the borders and ceasing to undermine India’s relationships with its neighbors in South Asia are crucial steps. The onus is on China to settle its land border disputes with India and Bhutan, thereby demonstrating a commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the region.
  • Acknowledging India’s Importance: China, which has built a foreign policy narrative based on a lack of respect from the West, should recognize the need to treat rising powers like India with respect. By acknowledging India’s importance and role as a counterweight in the region, China can establish a starting point for future cooperation

China

Conclusion

  • While border tensions may temporarily influence India’s actions, they will not impede its rise as a global player. India is rapidly gravitating towards the West, and the window of opportunity for fruitful collaboration may not remain open indefinitely. By embracing pragmatism and goodwill gestures, China can pave the way for a mutually beneficial partnership that contributes to global recovery and growth.

Must read:

Arunachal Pradesh: China’s Cartographic Deception

 

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Tribes in News

Ethnic Tensions in Manipur: Restoring Peace and Rebuilding Trust

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Tribes in news, related provisions and Demand for a separate administration in Manipur

Mains level: Ethnic tensions, causes , historical background, government effrots and way ahead

Manipur

Central Idea

  • The simmering conflict between the Meiteis and the Kukis has escalated due to mutual suspicion and recent events, such as the Manipur High Court’s order to recommend Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to Meiteis and the eviction drive of tribal villages from reserved forests. The failure to address these issues has resulted in the resurgence of ethnic violence, posing a threat to peace and stability in the region

Community Dynamics in Manipur and Tensions

  • Ethnic Clashes: Manipur has a history of ethnic clashes between communities, particularly between the Meiteis and the Kukis. These clashes often arise due to competition for resources, land disputes, and historical grievances. Mutual suspicion and territorial claims have fueled tensions between various ethnic groups.
  • Land Ownership: Land is a significant source of contention among communities in Manipur. The Meiteis, who primarily inhabit the Imphal valley, face challenges in relocating to the hill areas due to their non-inclusion in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. This has led to a sense of deprivation and competition for land ownership between the Meiteis and the hill communities, especially the Nagas and Kukis.
  • Political Representation: The issue of political representation has also contributed to tensions among communities. Different ethnic groups in Manipur strive for adequate representation in governance and decision-making processes. Disparities in political clout and access to resources have fueled grievances and conflicts.
  • Cultural Differences: Manipur is home to diverse communities with distinct cultural practices, traditions, and languages. While this cultural diversity can be a source of richness, it can also lead to misunderstandings and tensions. Differences in religious beliefs, customs, and language can sometimes create divisions and conflicts among communities.
  • Historical Grievances: Historical grievances and conflicts have left lasting scars on community dynamics in Manipur. Past struggles, violence, and insurgent movements have deepened mistrust and created fragmented social landscapes. Lingering resentments from these historical events continue to impact relationships between communities.
  • Socio-economic Disparities: Socio-economic disparities exist among different communities in Manipur. Disparities in access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities can contribute to tensions and grievances. Economic imbalances and perceived inequalities can strain community relationships.

Historical Background 

  • Pre-Integration Period: The Meiteis, the majority community in Manipur, had their own distinct socio-political system and cultural practices. They sought to project a pan-Mongoloid identity and had a chequered history of violence and struggles before integration with India.
  • Insurgent Movements: Before integration, Manipur witnessed the emergence of various insurgent groups, such as the People’s Liberation Army, which operated from bases in Bangladesh and Myanmar. These groups sought to address the political aspirations and grievances of certain communities in Manipur, leading to tensions and conflicts with the government and agencies representing the government.
  • Religious and Identity Issues: The Meiteis, who primarily follow Vaishnav Hinduism, had also expressed dissatisfaction with their Hindu identity, as they believed it brought them no political and economic benefits. They had previously attempted to revive an old Meitei religion called Sanamahism and had protested against the presence of Mayangs, or outsiders, including Manipur Muslims called Pangals.
  • Integration with India: Manipur became a part of India in 1949, and efforts were made to integrate the state with the mainstream Indian governance system. Over the years, steps such as protracted military operations, peace talks, political negotiations, improved means of communication, and development were undertaken to facilitate integration and stability in the region.

Facts for prelims

Merger of Manipur with the Union of India:

  • Pre-1947: Manipur was a princely state under British colonial rule. The Maharaja of Manipur, Bodhachandra Singh, was the ruler of the state.
  • August 1947: The Maharaja of Manipur signed the Instrument of Accession, agreeing to accede to the Indian Union.
  • 1972: Manipur, along with Meghalaya and Tripura, became a full-fledged state under the North Eastern Region (Reorganisation) Act, 1971

Who are the Meiteis?

  • Largest community: The Meiteis are the largest community in Manipur.
  • Community’s Language: They speak the Meitei language (officially called Manipuri), one of the 22 official languages of India and the sole official language of Manipur State.
  • Geographical Distribution: Manipur is geographically divided into the Imphal Valley and the surrounding hills. The Imphal Valley is dominated by the Meitei community, which accounts for more than 64% of the population. The hills, which comprise 90% of Manipur’s geographical area, are inhabited by more than 35% recognized tribes, which are largely Christians.
  • Major Festivals: festivals of meiteis are Lai Haraoba, Cheiraoba, Yaosang among others. Also, The Manipuri martial art Thang-ta had its origin in the Meitei knights during the king’s rule.

Government’s efforts to restore peace in Manipur

  • Deployment of Security Forces: The Indian Army, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Border Security Force (BSF), and Indian Air Force have been deployed to address the ongoing violence and maintain law and order in the region.
  • High-Level Government Involvement: The union Home minister has personally visited Manipur and presided over the peace process. The government has appointed a former Director-General of the CRPF as a security adviser and may appoint an officer from the Tripura cadre as the Director-General of Manipur.
  • Military Operations and Combing Operations: The government has initiated military and combing operations to control the intensity and spread of violence. These operations aim to apprehend perpetrators and restore peace.
  • Relief and Rehabilitation: Relief camps have been set up to provide shelter, food, and support to those affected by the violence. Efforts are being made to rehabilitate displaced individuals and help them return to their homes.
  • Strict Action Against Perpetrators: The government has emphasized taking strict action against those involved in violence. Perpetrators are facing consequences for their actions.
  • Confidence-Building Measures: The presence of security forces and high-level government officials aims to restore confidence among affected communities. The government’s commitment to maintaining law and order and addressing the security situation is intended to instill a sense of security.

Way ahead: Restoring Peace and Rebuilding Trust

  • Dialogue and Reconciliation: Facilitate open and inclusive dialogue among different communities, encouraging representatives from various ethnic groups to come together and discuss their concerns, grievances, and aspirations. This dialogue should aim to foster understanding, empathy, and reconciliation, creating a platform for finding common ground and building trust.
  • Addressing Land Issues: Develop a fair and transparent mechanism to address land disputes and ensure equitable land ownership rights for all communities. This can involve comprehensive land reforms, effective implementation of land laws, and creating avenues for resolving land-related conflicts through legal means or mediation.
  • Inclusive Governance and Representation: Ensure equitable political representation and participation of all communities in decision-making processes. This can be achieved by promoting inclusive policies, ensuring diverse community representation in legislative bodies, and providing opportunities for marginalized communities to have a voice in governance.
  • Economic Development and Employment Opportunities: Focus on promoting inclusive economic development in Manipur, with a particular emphasis on marginalized communities. Encourage investments in sectors that can generate employment and economic opportunities, ensuring that benefits reach all sections of society. This can help address socio-economic disparities and reduce tensions arising from perceived inequalities.
  • Promoting Cultural Understanding and Diversity: Foster an environment of cultural understanding, respect, and appreciation among different communities. Promote cultural exchanges, festivals, and events that showcase the richness and diversity of Manipuri cultures. Educational initiatives can also play a vital role in promoting intercultural understanding and tolerance.
  • Strengthening Law and Order: Enhance security measures and maintain the rule of law to curb violence and maintain peace. Ensure swift and fair justice for those involved in communal clashes, while also promoting community policing initiatives that foster trust and cooperation between law enforcement agencies and local communities.
  • Rehabilitation and Reconciliation Efforts: Provide rehabilitation and support to those affected by violence and displacement, irrespective of their community background. Implement initiatives that promote reconciliation and healing among affected communities, such as community dialogues, peace-building workshops, and counseling services.
  • Media and Communication: Encourage responsible and unbiased reporting by the media, which can play a crucial role in bridging communities and fostering understanding. Promote media initiatives that highlight stories of cooperation, cultural exchange, and positive community engagements

Conclusion

  • Manipur’s ethnic tensions require urgent attention to prevent further escalation of violence and to foster lasting peace. By addressing the underlying causes of conflict, implementing effective governance, and ensuring equitable representation and resource distribution, the state can work towards restoring trust and unity among its diverse communities. Only through comprehensive and inclusive approaches can Manipur integrate fully with mainstream India and realize its potential contributions to the nation’s development.

Must read:

Manipur: The Demand for Separate Administration and the Challenges Ahead

 

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Industrial Sector Updates – Industrial Policy, Ease of Doing Business, etc.

The Effectiveness of Production-Linked Incentive Schemes: A Critical Analysis

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Production-Linked Incentive schemes

Mains level: Production-Linked Incentive, advantages and structural challenges

Incentive

Central Idea

  • Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor, Raghuram Rajan, recently expressed doubts regarding the efficacy of the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme in boosting India’s domestic manufacturing and exports. While the government believes that the PLI scheme has been successful in enhancing the manufacturing sector, critics have raised concerns about its effectiveness.

What is Production-Linked Incentive scheme (PLI)?

  • PLI is a scheme introduced by the Indian government in 2020 to promote domestic manufacturing in specific sectors.
  • Under the PLI scheme, eligible companies receive financial incentives or subsidies based on their incremental production or sales.
  • The objective of the scheme is to boost the competitiveness of Indian manufacturers, attract investment, create employment opportunities, and enhance exports in targeted sectors.
  • The scheme aims to encourage both domestic and foreign companies to set up or expand their manufacturing operations in India, thereby strengthening the country’s manufacturing ecosystem and reducing reliance on imports.

Significance of the policy of subsidizing domestic sectors

  • Promoting Domestic Industries: Subsidies provide financial support to domestic industries, encouraging their growth and competitiveness. By reducing production costs, subsidies enable businesses to offer goods and services at more competitive prices, both in domestic and international markets.
  • Encouraging Employment Generation: Subsidies can stimulate job creation within domestic sectors. By providing financial incentives to businesses, subsidies help them expand their operations, leading to increased hiring and reduced unemployment rates.
  • Enhancing Competitiveness: Subsidies can bolster the competitiveness of domestic industries, particularly in sectors where foreign competitors have a significant advantage. Financial assistance can be used to invest in research and development, adopt advanced technologies, upgrade infrastructure, and improve product quality, enabling domestic businesses to compete more effectively on a global scale.
  • Reducing Dependency on Imports: By subsidizing domestic sectors, governments aim to reduce reliance on imported goods and services. This supports import substitution, where domestic industries are incentivized to produce goods that were previously imported, thereby strengthening the domestic manufacturing base and reducing trade deficits.
  • Fostering Innovation and Technology Development: Subsidies can facilitate research and development activities within domestic sectors. By providing financial support for innovation, governments encourage businesses to invest in new technologies, processes, and products.
  • Sectoral Development and Economic Diversification: Subsidies can be targeted towards specific sectors deemed strategically important for the country’s economic development and diversification. By incentivizing investments in these sectors, governments aim to create a robust industrial base, foster industrialization, and facilitate economic growth.
  • Addressing Market Failures: Subsidies can be used to rectify market failures, such as externalities or information asymmetries. For example, subsidies can be provided to encourage the adoption of environmentally friendly practices or to support industries with high spillover effects on other sectors of the economy.
  • Attracting Investments: Subsidies serve as a tool to attract domestic and foreign investments. By offering financial incentives and creating a favorable business environment, governments can entice businesses to establish or expand their operations within the country. This promotes economic development, job creation, and technology transfer

Role of tariffs on imports

  • Protecting Domestic Industries: Tariffs are often imposed on imported goods to provide a level of protection to domestic industries. By increasing the cost of imported products, tariffs make them less competitive in the domestic market.
  • Creating a Level Playing Field: Tariffs can help create a level playing field for domestic industries by counterbalancing advantages enjoyed by foreign competitors. These advantages may include lower production costs, access to subsidies, or different regulatory standards.
  • Promoting Import Substitution: Tariffs incentivize domestic production by making imported goods more expensive. This stimulates import substitution, where domestic industries are encouraged to manufacture goods that were previously imported.
  • Generating Government Revenue: Tariffs are a significant source of revenue for governments. By levying taxes on imports, governments can generate funds that can be allocated for various public purposes, including infrastructure development, social programs, and public services.
  • Balancing Trade Deficits: Tariffs can be utilized to address trade imbalances and reduce trade deficits. If a country consistently imports more than it exports, imposing tariffs on certain imported goods can help reduce the trade deficit by discouraging excessive imports.
  • Encouraging Domestic Industry Development: Tariffs can encourage the development and growth of domestic industries by making imported goods relatively more expensive. Higher prices on imports can incentivize domestic businesses to invest in their production capabilities, innovate, and improve efficiency.

Challenges of effective implementation of the PLI in manufacturing sector

  • Targeting and Selection: Identifying the right sectors and companies for incentives is crucial to the success of the PLI scheme. Determining the sectors that have the potential for growth, job creation, and export competitiveness requires careful analysis and assessment.
  • Administrative Efficiency: Efficient administration and implementation of the PLI scheme are essential. This involves the timely disbursal of incentives and the monitoring of compliance by beneficiary companies.
  • Funding and Budgetary Allocation: The PLI scheme requires significant financial resources to support the incentives provided to eligible companies. Ensuring adequate funding and appropriate budgetary allocation pose challenges, especially in balancing the financial burden on the government while meeting the scheme’s objectives.
  • Meeting Performance Criteria: The PLI scheme typically includes performance-based criteria that companies must meet to qualify for incentives. Ensuring that beneficiary companies adhere to these criteria and meet the prescribed benchmarks can be challenging and requires continuous monitoring and evaluation.
  • Risk of Subsidy Dependence: There is a risk that companies may become overly reliant on subsidies and may not invest adequately in improving their competitiveness or innovation capabilities.
  • Sector-Specific Challenges: Different sectors within the manufacturing industry have unique challenges that need to be considered during the implementation of the PLI scheme. These challenges could include technological barriers, supply chain complexities, skill gaps, or global market dynamics.

Way ahead: Addressing the structural issues in the manufacturing sector

  • Infrastructure Development: Adequate and modern infrastructure, including transportation networks, power supply, logistics, and connectivity, is essential for the smooth functioning of manufacturing activities.
  • Access to Finance: Availability of affordable and accessible finance is critical for the growth of the manufacturing sector, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Enhancing access to credit, promoting innovative financing mechanisms, and easing collateral requirements can help address the finance gap and support the expansion of manufacturing businesses.
  • Quality of Education and Skill Development: A skilled workforce is vital for the manufacturing sector’s productivity and competitiveness. Addressing the quality of education and aligning it with the needs of the industry can help bridge the skill gap.
  • Research and Development (R&D) and Innovation: Promoting R&D and innovation is crucial for enhancing the technological capabilities and competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. Encouraging investment in R&D, fostering collaboration between industry and research institutions can help drive technological advancements
  • Regulatory Reforms: Simplifying and rationalizing regulatory frameworks can reduce bureaucratic burdens, enhance ease of doing business, and attract investments. Streamlining processes, reducing red tape, and ensuring transparent and efficient regulatory mechanisms can create a conducive environment for manufacturing businesses to thrive.
  • Supply Chain Integration: Strengthening supply chain integration is essential for improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing competitiveness.
  • Sustainability and Environment: Integrating sustainability practices and adopting eco-friendly technologies are increasingly important for the manufacturing sector. Emphasizing resource efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, and promoting circular economy principles can enhance the sector’s environmental sustainability and compliance with global sustainability standards.
  • Market Access and Trade Policies: Facilitating market access, reducing trade barriers, and promoting export-oriented policies are critical for the manufacturing sector’s growth and global competitiveness.

Conclusion

  • The efficacy of the PLI scheme in boosting India’s domestic manufacturing and exports is a subject of debate. While targeted subsidies can stimulate growth in strategic sectors and cater to existing demand, concerns surrounding cronyism and bureaucratic control must be addressed. Focusing on improving the investment environment and addressing infrastructural and educational deficiencies will contribute to sustainable growth in the manufacturing sector.

Also read:

Govt doubles outlay on PLI for IT hardware

 

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

RBI Monetary Policy Update

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: RBI Monetary Policy Committee

Mains level: Read the attached story

rbi monetary policy

Central Idea

  • This article discusses the recent policy review by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) and its implications for India’s economy.
  • The MPC is responsible for making decisions regarding the repo rate and determining the policy stance to achieve specific economic objectives.

Key highlights by RBI

  • Repo Rate: Kept unchanged at 6.50%
  • Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) Rate: Remains unchanged at 6.25%
  • Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate and Bank Rate: Unchanged at 6.75%
  • Target Inflation: Medium-term target for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%

RBI Monetary Policy Committee

Purpose Make decisions on monetary policy in India
Constituted by RBI Act, 1934
Objective Maintain price stability and foster economic growth
Members
  • 3 officials from the RBI,
  • 3 external members appointed by the Government of India
Chairperson Governor of the RBI
Decision Factors
  • Economic and financial developments
  • Inflation trends
  • Macroeconomic conditions
Key Tools Policy interest rate (Repo rate)

Policy stance

Impact of Decisions
  • Borrowing costs
  • Liquidity in the banking system
  • Overall economic environment

 

Various MPC tools

Description
Repo Rate Rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks
Reverse Repo Rate Rate at which the central bank borrows money from commercial banks
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) Portion of banks’ deposits that they must hold as reserves with the central bank
Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) Percentage of certain assets that banks are required to maintain in their portfolio
Open Market Operations (OMOs) Buying and selling of government securities by the central bank in the open market
Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Facility allowing banks to borrow funds overnight from the central bank against eligible securities
Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) Repo and reverse repo rates used by banks to manage their liquidity needs
Policy Stance and Communication MPC’s approach to monetary policy and communication of decisions and outlook

Key outlooks

  • GDP growth and inflation forecasts: GDP growth forecasts provide insights into the expected pace of economic expansion, while inflation forecasts help gauge price stability and purchasing power.
  • Stability of forecasts: The MPC’s latest review indicates relatively little change in the GDP growth and inflation forecasts, reflecting a consistent outlook for the economy.
  • Goldilocks metaphor for the economy: The reference to a Goldilocks moment alludes to an ideal state where the economy operates optimally, striking a balance between high inflation (too hot) and faltering GDP growth (too cold). RBI surveys on consumer confidence and inflation expectations suggest a positive and favourable economic environment.

Positive Developments

  • Surprising GDP growth: India’s GDP growth in FY23 exceeded the RBI’s expectations, reaching 7.2% instead of the projected 7%.
  • Decrease in headline retail inflation: Retail inflation dropped to 4.7% in April, marking the lowest reading since November 2021.
  • Consumption recovery and private investments: The anticipation of a robust Rabi crop production and a normal monsoon, combined with the government’s emphasis on capital expenditure, suggests a potential increase in consumption levels and private investments.
  • Increase in consumer confidence: Consumer confidence is gradually improving, while Indian families expect inflation to stabilize at a more manageable level.

Major considerations

  • Expected deceleration in GDP: Despite positive indicators, the MPC anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth from 7.2% to 6.5% in FY24, with professional forecasters projecting an even lower growth rate of 6%.
  • Consumer confidence still in negative territory: While consumer confidence metrics show improvement, they remain below the 100 mark, indicating prevailing pessimism among the public.
  • Headwinds and potentially economic challenges: Various factors, including weak global demand, volatility in global financial markets, geopolitical tensions, and the potential impact of El Nino on the monsoon, pose potential risks to India’s economy.

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Global Geological And Climatic Events

Cyclone Biparjoy and its Naming

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Cyclone Biparjoy

Mains level: Naming of cyclone

Cyclone Biparjoy
PC: windy.com

Central Idea: A cyclonic storm, named Biparjoy, has developed in the Arabian Sea.

Cyclone Biparjoy

  • It was stationed about 850 km west of Goa and 900 km southwest of Mumbai.
  • The cyclone is predicted to gain in strength over the next three days and develop into a very severe cyclonic storm by June 13.
  • It would result in squally weather with wind speeds reaching 35-45 kmph along the coastline of Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra
  • The IMD has not yet predicted any major impact on countries adjoining the Arabian Sea, including India, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

How it was named?

  • Origin of Cyclone Biparjoy’s Name: ‘Biparjoy’ was suggested by Bangladesh and the word means ‘disaster’ or ‘calamity’ in Bengali. The next cyclone after Biparjoy will be named ‘Tej’ based on India’s suggestion.
  • Rotational Basis for Naming: The naming of cyclones is done by countries on a rotational basis, following certain existing guidelines.
  • Responsibilities of RSMCs and TCWCs: Worldwide, there are six regional specialized meteorological centers (RSMCs) and five regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers (TCWCs) mandated for issuing advisories and naming of tropical cyclones.
  • IMD’s Role: IMD is one of the six RSMCs providing tropical cyclone and storm surge advisories to 13 member countries under the WMO/Economic and Social Commission for Asia-Pacific (ESCAP) Panel.
  • Naming Authority of IMD: RSMC, New Delhi, is also mandated to name the tropical cyclones developing over the north Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
  • Guidelines for Naming: Some rules are to be followed while naming cyclones, such as being neutral to politics, religious beliefs, cultures, and gender, avoiding offensive or cruel names, and keeping the name short and easy to pronounce.
  • Next Cyclone Name: After Bangladesh, the next cyclone will be named ‘Tej’ based on India’s suggestion.

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: A quick recap

  • Frequency of Cyclones: It is not rare for cyclones to develop in the Arabian Sea. There are fewer cyclones compared to the Bay of Bengal, but it is not uncommon.
  • Favorable Months: June is one of the favorable months for the formation of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.
  • Factors Influencing Cyclone Formation: Cyclones form due to low-pressure systems over warm waters. The Bay of Bengal is slightly warmer, but the Arabian Sea is also getting warmer due to climate change, leading to an increase in cyclones.
  • Coriolis Effect and Weather Systems: In a depression or low-pressure situation, the air blows in an anticlockwise direction in the northern hemisphere, influenced by the Coriolis Effect.

Role of Climate Change

  • Historical data indicates that the frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms has increased over the Arabian Sea since 1990, while it has remained the same over the Bay of Bengal.
  • A 2021 study highlighted the increasing intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea.
  • The warming is indicated by the nearly tripled accumulated cyclone energy, reflecting the extent of warming in recent years.

Back2Basics:

Tropical Cyclones
Definition Intense circular storm over warm oceans with low pressure, high winds, and heavy rain.
Formation Conditions Warm sea surface temperatures, anticlockwise rotation of low-level air, favorable atmospheric conditions.
Conducive Periods April-May and October-December.
Movement and Moisture Cyclones move northwest, gather moist air, and intensify.
Requirements for Cyclogenesis Warm sea temperatures, atmospheric instability, high humidity, Coriolis force, low-level disturbance, low vertical wind shear.
Sea temperatures Temperature of at least 28°C.
Atmospheric instability Allows vertical air movement.
Role of Coriolis Force Required for low-pressure center formation.
Low vertical wind shear Maintains cyclone structure.

 

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Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

Dr. M. Emperumal Naidu: A Gandhian Freedom Fighter

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Dr. M. Emperumal Naidu

Mains level: Not Much

Emperumal Naidu

Central Idea: Naidu Hospital in Kottar (Nagercoil, TN), stands as a symbol of the forgotten heroes of the freedom movement, spearheaded by Dr. M. Emperumal Naidu, and their enduring impact on social justice

Who was Dr. M. Emperumal Naidu (1880-1958)?

  • Introduction to Naidu Hospital: Naidu Hospital, located in Kottar is a significant hospital with historical ties to the freedom movement and the fight for social justice.
  • Founder: M. Emperumal Naidu, a freedom fighter and associate of Mahatma Gandhi, established the hospital.
  • Contribution to Vaikom Movement: Naidu actively participated in the Vaikom temple street entry movement, following the footsteps of Periyar E.V. Ramasamy and his wife Nagammal.
  • Enduring the Struggle: Naidu faced adversity during the movement, including being splattered with limestone powder and standing in waist-deep rainwater with Gandhidas Muthusamy.

His Life and Achievements

  • Family and Education: Naidu’s ancestors hailed from Andhra Pradesh, and his father served as an artiste in the court of Travancore. Naidu studied at Scott Christian College in Nagercoil and later attended the Madras Medical College.
  • Involvement in Freedom Movement: Naidu became actively involved in the freedom movement while studying in England and declined a medical college offer to pursue a degree in Glasgow, aligning himself with the ideals of Gandhi.
  • Contributions to Healthcare: In 1914, Naidu established a hospital in Kottar, one of the first private hospitals providing modern medical treatment. He offered free treatment to Dalits and marked prescriptions with ‘HF’ (Harijan Free).
  • Leadership and Connections: Naidu played a crucial role in the Indian National Congress and hosted prominent leaders like Lala Lajpat Rai, C.F. Andrews, Sarojini Naidu, and Jawaharlal Nehru in Nagercoil.
  • Link to Gandhi: Naidu served as a vital link to Gandhi in Travancore and actively participated in various campaigns and Congress meetings alongside him.

Major contribution: Temple Entry Movement

  • Vaikom Temple Street Movement: Naidu, along with his wife and other volunteers, actively participated in the Vaikom temple street movement, advocating for equal rights and facing arrests and restrictions.
  • Continued Activism: Naidu continued organizing protests and campaigns, leading a protest in Suchindram to open temple streets to all communities in the Kanniyakumari district.
  • Achievements: Naidu’s relentless efforts for temple entry and the welfare of Dalits led to the Travancore government issuing a proclamation in 1936, opening temple doors and streets to all communities.

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Indian Missile Program Updates

Agni Prime Missile Successfully Tested

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Agni Prime , Other Agni variants

Mains level: Read the attached story

agni prime

Central Idea: India successfully tested the new-generation Agni-Prime ballistic missile with a strike range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometres.

About Agni Prime Missile

  • Stages: Agni-P is a two-stage, surface-to-surface, road-mobile, and solid-fueled missile.
  • Canister-Launch System: Agni-P is launched via a canister, providing operational flexibility and ease of transport.
  • Advanced Systems: Agni-P incorporates new propulsion systems, composite rocket motor casings, and advanced navigation and guidance systems.

History and Development

  • Development Timeline: Beginning in 2016, DRDO has been developing Agni-P as a successor to enhance accuracy and reliability.
  • Indo-Pacific Strategy: Agni-P is part of India’s strategy to counter China’s naval capabilities and achieve parity in anti-access/area denial.
  • International Implications: Agni-P’s development positions India in the regional power dynamics and could impact arms control treaties.

Missile Capabilities

  • Manoeuvrability and Accuracy: Agni-P features a manoeuvrable reentry vehicle (MaRV) for precise delivery of warheads to multiple locations.
  • Transportability: The missile is stored in a hermetically sealed tandem twin canister launcher, allowing for swift transportation through road and rail.
  • Weight Reduction: Composite materials are utilized in both stages of Agni-P to reduce weight and enhance performance.

Strategic Importance

  • Counterforce Capability: Agni-P aims to deter neighbourhood enemy forces, given its limited range.
  • Enhanced Deterrence: The missile strengthens India’s deterrence capabilities and contributes to national security.
  • Regional Power Dynamics: Agni-P’s development is part of India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, impacting regional power dynamics.

Back2Basics: Agni Missile Series

  • Agni I: It is a Medium Range Ballistic Missile with a Range of 700-800 km.
  • Agni II: It is also a Medium Range Ballistic Missile with a Range more than 2000 km.
  • Agni III: It is also an Inter-Medium Range Ballistic Missile with Range of more than 2,500 Km
  • Agni IV: It is also an Inter-Medium Range Ballistic Missile with Range is more than 3,500 km and can fire from a road mobile launcher.
  • Agni-V: Currently it is the longest of Agni series, an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of over 5,000 km.
  • Agni- VI: The longest of the Agni series, an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of ICBM 11,000–12,000 km.

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US policy wise : Visa, Free Trade and WTO

US-UK forge ‘Atlantic Declaration’ to boost ties

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Atlantic Declaration

Mains level: Not Much

atlantic

Central Idea

  • The US and Britain have announced a new strategic pact called, reaffirming their “special relationship” to address challenges posed by Russia, China, and economic instability.
  • They signed Atlantic Declaration to develop a new green economy through extensive industrial subsidies instead of pursuing a post-Brexit free-trade agreement.

What is Atlantic Declaration?

  • The “Atlantic Declaration” aims to enhance industry collaboration in defense and renewable energy sectors in response to China’s growing competition.
  • The declaration recognizes the challenges posed by authoritarian states, disruptive technologies, non-state actors, and transnational issues like climate change.
  • Both leaders affirmed the strength of the transatlantic relationship and emphasized the need to adapt to the changing world economy driven by AI and technological advancements.

Key terms of the declaration

  • Supply Chain Strengthening: The US and UK will strengthen their supply chains, invest in each other’s industries, and develop future technologies under the Atlantic Declaration.
  • Clean Energy Partnership: They agreed to launch a civil nuclear partnership, aiming to promote clean energy cooperation and reduce reliance on Russian fuel.
  • Technology and Critical Minerals: The countries will collaborate on the safe development of AI technology, negotiate a critical minerals agreement, and cooperate on telecoms technology and quantum technologies.
  • UK-US “Data Bridge”: The declaration includes a commitment in principle to a UK-US “data bridge” that facilitates the transfer of data between British and US businesses without unnecessary bureaucracy.
  • Critical Minerals Agreement: Negotiations on a critical minerals agreement will allow certain UK firms to access tax credits available under the US Inflation Reduction Act.
  • Business Collaboration: Cooperation will extend to telecoms technology, including 5G and 6G, as well as quantum technologies, fostering collaboration and innovation between the US and UK.

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Medical Education Governance in India

National Exit Test (NExT) for Medical Grads

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NEXT

Mains level: Not Much

next

Central Idea: The NExT examination, a common qualifying criterion for final-year undergraduate medical students will be introduced in the year 2024.

National Exit Test (NExT)

  • Objective: The examination aims to bring uniformity in evaluation across the country, ensuring minimum common standards of education and training for medical graduates.
  • Two-Part Examination: The NExT exam will consist of two parts: NExT 1, which will be a theoretical examination, and NExT 2, which will include practical, clinical, and oral examinations covering seven clinical subjects or disciplines.
  • Mock Test: A mock test may be conducted to familiarize students with the procedure and alleviate any anxiety before the official examination is rolled out.

National Medical Commission and Application of NExT

  • Role of NMC: The NMC is responsible for implementing the NExT examination and ensuring a common standard for medical education in the country.
  • Applicability: The NExT examination will also apply to institutes of national importance, including the All India Institutes of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), to maintain uniformity in medical education.

Significance

  • Quality professionals: The NExT examination is seen as a means to ensure quality and produce well-trained Indian medical graduates.
  • Expert Perspectives: Experts in the medical field have welcomed the move, emphasizing the importance of uniform examination standards and the opportunity for interns to focus on their clinical training.

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