August 2023
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ISRO Missions and Discoveries

Chandrayaan-3 landing site called ‘Shiv Shakti’

shiv shakti

Central Idea

  • PM’s recent announcement of naming the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander’s touch-down site as “Shiv Shakti” highlights the tradition of assigning names to significant points on celestial bodies.
  • The lunar landscape is peppered with such nomenclature, each reflecting a rich history of exploration and achievement.

Lunar Ownership and the Outer Space Treaty

  • Global Exploration: The Moon, as a celestial body, remains beyond the jurisdiction of any single country. The Outer Space Treaty of 1966 declares that outer space, including celestial bodies like the Moon, cannot be claimed under national sovereignty.
  • Cooperation over Competition: The Treaty fosters international cooperation in space exploration while discouraging exclusive claims. It was developed during the Cold War to promote shared achievements and limit conflicts arising from superpower rivalry.

Role of the International Astronomical Union (IAU)

  • Global Naming Authority: The IAU, with 92 member countries, plays a pivotal role in naming planetary features, including the Moon’s surface points.
  • Established Conventions: The IAU has overseen planetary and satellite nomenclature since its founding in 1919, aiming to standardize naming practices for better astronomical understanding.

Nomenclature Process for Lunar Landmarks

  • Initiation: Initial naming suggestions for planetary features arise from IAU task group members or investigators involved in mapping or describing specific surfaces.
  • Review and Approval: Proposed names undergo review by task groups and the Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature (WGPSN). Successful names become official IAU nomenclature and are entered into the Gazetteer of Planetary Nomenclature.
  • Considerations and Limitations: IAU’s guidelines emphasize simple and unambiguous names, avoiding political, military, or religious significance. Honouring individuals is acceptable after a three-year posthumous period.

Legacy of Lunar Naming

  • Influential Factors: The quality of images from spacecraft has driven naming. Far-side craters were often named after scientists and engineers. Informal names given during missions eventually received official status.
  • Variability and Symbolism: Not all notable figures are honored with prominent crater names. The selection can seem arbitrary, with scientific prominence not guaranteeing crater-endowed immortality.
  • Cultural Inspirations: The IAU permits names from Greco-Roman mythology for Jupiter and Saturn’s satellites. Giants, monsters, and descendants of mythological figures have been added to the allowable source of names.

India’s earlier Lunar Naming

  • Jawahar Sthal: India’s Chandrayaan-1 mission’s probe impact site was named “Jawahar Sthal” in honor of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister. His advocacy for scientific development and research in India inspired the gesture.

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G20 : Economic Cooperation ahead

Kashi Culture Pathway: G-20 Consensus on Cultural Heritage

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Kashi Culture Pathway

Mains level: Not Much

Central Idea

  • The G-20 Culture Ministers’ meeting held in Varanasi resulted in the unanimous endorsement of the ‘Kashi Culture Pathway’ document.

Kashi Culture Pathway

  • Under this, G20 nations aims to address the preservation of cultural heritage, curbing illicit artifact trafficking, restitution of cultural property, and protection of living heritage, particularly that of indigenous communities.
  • The document’s key aspects and implications highlight the united stance of G-20 countries towards cultural preservation.

Key Features

  • Protection amid Conflict: The ‘Kashi Culture Pathway’ document accentuates the collective commitment of G-20 nations to protect cultural heritage from intentional and unintentional destruction, particularly in times of conflict.
  • Combating Illicit Trade: G-20 member nations underscored the necessity to establish a robust global coalition to counter the illicit trafficking of cultural artifacts, with special attention to bolstering law enforcement collaboration.
  • Enhanced Cooperation and Tools: Collaboration among nations and strengthening of enforcement tools were identified as essential to heighten the effectiveness of combatting cultural property trafficking. This includes voluntary data exchange to support investigations and law enforcement.
  • Empowerment of Cultural Professionals: The document emphasizes enhancing research, documentation, and capacity-building for cultural professionals, legal authorities, and law enforcement personnel to better counter the trafficking of cultural property.
  • Prevention and Regulation: Preventive measures were stressed, including regulatory actions against the unlawful export of cultural artefacts, particularly within the realm of online trade.

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ISRO Missions and Discoveries

After Chandrayaan-3, what has ISRO planned?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: ISRO Missions

Mains level: Not Much

isro missions

Central Idea

  • ISRO’s triumphant landing of the Chandrayaan-3 lander on the moon’s South Polar Region marks a significant achievement in space exploration.
  • As India emerges as a key player in the field, the focus now shifts to its multifaceted activities, upcoming missions, and technological advancements.

Diverse ISRO Activities

  • Multifaceted Endeavors: ISRO’s operations span research, satellite development, rocket production, satellite tracking infrastructure maintenance, and more, catering to diverse space-related needs.
  • Key Focus Areas: Prominent areas of focus include the ‘Gaganyaan’ human spaceflight mission, Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD), SCE-200 engine development, and the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV).

Glimpses of Upcoming Missions

  • Aditya L1: Scheduled for September 2023, Aditya L1 is a scientific mission to study the sun in detail, providing critical insights into solar activities.
  • NISAR Satellite: In January 2024, the joint ISRO-NASA NISAR satellite will study earth’s surface processes using advanced radar technology.
  • Gaganyaan G1 and G2 Flights: 2024 witnesses test flights of human-rated rockets, a prelude to India’s ambitious Gaganyaan human spaceflight.

Beyond Launches: Technology Innovations

  • Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV-TD): Resembling the NASA Space Shuttle, RLV-TD’s design enables air propulsion or gliding, capable of lifting 20,000 kg to low-earth orbit.
  • Advanced Propulsion: ISRO explores advanced rocket fuels like methalox propellant and electric propulsion systems, enhancing efficiency and safety.

Moon Missions and Lunar Exploration

  • Chandrayaan-3 and Beyond: Chandrayaan-3 paves the way for further lunar exploration, with plans for missions like LUPEX (Lunar Polar Exploration) in collaboration with JAXA.
  • LUPEX’s Ambitions: LUPEX aims to deploy a sophisticated lander and rover to study the moon’s South Polar Region, including subsurface sample extraction and night survival.

Expanding Collaborations and Global Partnerships

  • Alternative Space Service Providers: ISRO fills gaps left by sanctions on Russia, launching OneWeb satellites and expectedly launching the European Space Agency’s PROBA-3 satellites.
  • Lunar Exploration with JAXA: Collaborating with JAXA for LUPEX showcases ISRO’s commitment to global partnerships in space exploration.

Mars and Venus Missions

  • Mars Return Mission: ISRO plans a return to Mars, building on its previous successful Mars Orbiter Mission (Mangalyaan).
  • Venus Exploration: ‘Shukrayaan’: Ambitious plans to study Venus through the ‘Shukrayaan’ mission demonstrate ISRO’s expanding horizons in planetary exploration.

Conclusion

  • ISRO’s remarkable accomplishments and future undertakings illuminate its stature as a global space powerhouse.
  • From lunar landings to solar studies, human spaceflight to interplanetary missions, ISRO continues to shape the landscape of space exploration.
  • By pushing boundaries, fostering innovation, and fostering international cooperation, ISRO cements its role in humanity’s journey to unravel the mysteries of the cosmos.

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Minority Issues – SC, ST, Dalits, OBC, Reservations, etc.

Scholarship Schemes for Religious Minorities: Reality Check

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Various schemes mentioned

Mains level: Read the attached story

minority minorities

Central Idea

  • Education stands as a potent tool for nurturing socio-economic progress within a nation, especially for religious minorities.
  • However, recent years have witnessed discontinuation of key scholarship schemes, reduced funding, and a decline in beneficiaries, prompting concerns about the commitment to inclusive growth.

Minority Educational Schemes: Overview

  • Pre-Matric Scholarship Scheme: Initially covering classes 1 to 10, now limited to classes 9 and 10.
  • Post-Matric Scholarship Scheme: Supports class 11 and above students, with increased funding this fiscal year.
  • Merit-cum-Means based Scholarship Scheme: Aided professional and technical courses, underwent significant funding reduction.
  • Maulana Azad National Fellowship (MANF): Provided financial assistance for research scholars but discontinued in 2022.
  • Padho Pardesh: Discontinued interest subsidy scheme for higher education abroad.
  • Begum Hazrat Mahal National Scholarship: Scholarship for meritorious girls discontinued.

Policy Shift and Consequences

  • Change in Focus: Despite acknowledging the importance of education for religious minorities and inclusive growth, the government has discontinued two key educational schemes, narrowed the scope of another, and reduced expenditure on multiple programs by the Ministry of Minority Affairs.
  • Beneficiary Drop: Between 2019 and 2022, the number of beneficiaries under six educational schemes for religious minorities decreased by 7%, while government spending on these programs declined by around 12.5%.
  • Budget Cuts: The Ministry of Minority Affairs faced a budgetary reduction of 38.3% for the fiscal year 2023-24, from Rs 5,020.5 crore in 2022-23 to Rs 3,097 crore. Additionally, a significant portion of funds allocated in the previous year went unutilized.

Importance of Strengthening Educational Aid

  • Diverse Religious Minorities: India encompasses over 30 crore people from religious minority communities, including Muslims (14.2%), Christians (2.3%), Sikhs (1.7%), Buddhists (0.7%), Jains (0.4%), and Zoroastrians.
  • Challenges Faced by Muslims: Muslims, the largest religious minority, confront challenges in areas like economics, health, and education. Their participation in formal employment remains low, with many working in the informal sector under poor conditions.
  • Sachar Committee Report: The Sachar Committee highlighted the deprivation and neglect faced by Muslims across various development dimensions, underscoring the need for affirmative action.
  • Formation of Ministry of Minority Affairs: Responding to these challenges, the UPA government established this Ministry in 2006 to ensure focused attention on the issues affecting minority communities.

Challenges and Impact

  • Reduction in beneficiaries and funding has impacted the implementation of schemes, resulting in a widening gap in education and economic parameters.
  • Poor coverage of beneficiaries and unchanged low unit costs remain hurdles in scheme implementation.
  • Muslim students’ enrolment in higher education is lagging behind other communities, worsening the existing disparities.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen educational aid through enhancing scholarships, such as pre-matric, post-matric, merit-cum-means, and national overseas scholarships.
  • Implement targeted schemes based on the 15-Point Programme to address development gaps in minority-concentrated localities.
  • Make scholarships demand-driven and provide additional financial resources to improve unit costs.
  • Increase the total budget allocation for the Ministry of Minority Affairs to address the deprivation in educational attainment for minorities.

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Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

Patient Safety and Neonatal Care: India’s Efforts and Challenges

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Patient Safety Provisions

Central Idea

  • The recent conviction of a former British nurse highlights the importance of patient safety in healthcare systems.
  • While neonatal safety is not governed by exclusive rules, there are provisions to ensure the wellbeing of newborns and minimize potential risks.

Patient Safety Provisions in India

  • Defining Patient Safety: Patient safety is defined as freedom from harm or potential harm associated with healthcare provision, according to the ‘National Patient Safety Implementation Framework (2018-2025).’
  • Legal Protection: Patients in India are protected under various laws, including the Consumer Protection Act, Clinical Establishment Act, and mechanisms by the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority and Drugs Controller General of India to safeguard patients’ rights.
  • Fragmented Laws: Patient safety is governed by a range of laws, from the Hippocratic Oath to clinical establishment regulations, reflecting a multifaceted approach to ensure safe healthcare practices.

Neonatal Safety and Care

  • Proactive Measures: While no exclusive rules exist for neonatal care, provisions against issues like mix-ups and abductions are present. Deliberate harm is extremely rare and often linked to complex psychiatric illnesses.
  • Comprehensive Provisions: Neonatal safety is ensured through comprehensive provisions that include staffing, equipment, infection control, parental involvement, training, and continuing medical education.
  • Human Errors: In a country with a high birth rate, human errors may occur in neonatal care, but planned, deliberate harm remains an exceptional occurrence.

Neonatal Health Challenges

  • Global Neonatal Deaths: Despite a decline in global neonatal deaths, newborns face the highest risk of death within the first 28 days of life. A significant proportion of under-five deaths occur during the newborn period.
  • India’s Scenario: India’s infant mortality rate is gradually declining, but pre-term birth, complications during birth, infections, and birth defects remain major causes of neonatal deaths.
  • Improving Neonatal Survival: Ensuring proper neonatal care and addressing the key challenges can contribute to reducing neonatal mortality rates and improving child health outcomes.

Promoting Neonatal Safety

  • Midwife-Led Continuity of Care: Professional midwives providing midwife-led continuity of care (MLCC) significantly reduce the risk of neonatal and pre-term birth. This approach emphasizes the importance of skilled care during childbirth and the immediate postnatal period.
  • Seeking Prompt Medical Care: Families are advised to seek prompt medical care in case of danger signs in newborns and to follow vaccination schedules for timely protection. This proactive approach helps prevent and manage potential health risks in neonates.
  • Ensuring Proper Training: Proper training of healthcare providers, especially those in neonatal services, is crucial for maintaining high-quality care and adherence to safety standards.

Conclusion

  • Patient safety and neonatal care form the foundation of a robust healthcare system.
  • The challenges of neonatal care require ongoing attention, collaboration, and innovation to ensure the best outcomes for the youngest members of society.

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Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

Somatic Genetic Variants: A genomic revolution hiding inside our cells

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Somatic genetic variants

Mains level: Not Much

somatic gene

Central Idea

  • The human genome, comprising 23 pairs of chromosomes, is the blueprint of our genetic makeup inherited from our parents.
  • The replication of this genetic information in nearly a trillion cells during development results in a complex mosaic of cellular diversity.
  • Despite remarkable DNA replication accuracy, mutations still occur.

What are Somatic Genes?

  • Somatic genetic variants, also known as somatic mutations or somatic alterations, are genetic changes that occur in the cells of an organism’s body (somatic cells) during its lifetime.
  • These mutations are distinct from germline mutations, which are inherited from parents and are present in every cell of an individual’s body.
  • Somatic mutations are acquired after conception and are not passed on to future generations.
  • Somatic mutations can occur due to various factors, such as exposure to environmental mutagens (like radiation or chemicals), errors in DNA replication, and other cellular processes.
  • These mutations can affect the DNA sequence of specific genes, leading to changes in protein production or function.

DNA Replication: The Copy-Paste Mechanism

  • Genetic Inheritance: Ovum and sperm carry parental genetic blueprints, which combine after fertilization.
  • Cell Division: The single fertilized cell, with 23 chromosomes, multiplies to form the human body’s trillions of cells.
  • DNA Replication Accuracy: Proteins proofread and correct DNA during replication, resulting in an error rate of 0.64-0.78 mutations per billion base pairs per division.

Impact of Somatic Genetic Mutations

  • Dependent on Timing: Errors occurring after birth but during development are somatic genetic mutations.
  • Driver Mutations: Mutations that confer a fitness advantage to cells can lead to tumor formation and are called driver mutations.
  • Cellular Mosaic: Human body is a mosaic of cells with subtle genomic differences, influenced by somatic genetic variants.
  • Genetic Variants: Genetic variants within functional genome regions can affect protein encoding and regulation.

Somatic Variants and Physiological Processes

  • Immune Cell Diversity: Immune cells undergo extensive somatic changes to create diverse antibodies recognise pathogens.
  • Recent Knowledge Explosion: Technological advancements in sequencing individual cells have led to an explosion of data and knowledge on somatic variants.
  • Cancer’s Role: Somatic genetic variants play a significant role in cancer development, aiding in early detection, diagnosis, and prognosis.

Cancer Mutational Signatures

  • Mutational Signatures: Specific genetic variations and patterns are characteristic of certain cancers, enabling early detection.
  • Blood-Based Detection: Technologies identify tumour DNA in blood to detect cancer early.
  • Disease Progress Tracking: Cancer variations can be used to monitor disease progression and therapy response.

Somatic Variants in Genetic Diseases

  • Genetic Diseases Origin: Many genetic disorders arise from somatic genetic variants, not inherited from parents.
  • Disease Severity and Timing: The severity and distribution of genetic diseases depend on the timing of somatic mutations during development.
  • Immune Disorders: Somatic changes can cause immune disorders and even beneficially reverse some genetic diseases.

SMaHT Network: Understanding Somatic Mosaicism

  • Somatic Mosaicism: US has launched the ‘Somatic Mosaicism across Human Tissues’ (SMaHT) Network.
  • Aims: SMaHT aims to discover somatic variants, develop tools for study, and improve analysis for biological and clinical insights.
  • Investment and Research: The U.S. government has invested $140 million to study somatic variants in post-mortem samples.

Implications and Future Prospects

  • Cellular Complexity: Studying somatic variants reveals the intricate diversity of cells and reshapes evolutionary understanding.
  • Disease Management: Understanding somatic genetic changes can advance disease understanding and management.
  • Innovative Approaches: Analyzing genes at the single-cell level paves the way for innovative disease approaches and insights into evolution.

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Wildlife Conservation Efforts

State of India’s Birds (SoIB) Report, 2023: Key Highlights

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: State of India’s Birds (SoIB) Report, 2023

Mains level: Not Much

bird

Central Idea

  • The State of India’s Birds (SoIB) report based on data collected from approximately 30,000 birdwatchers has unveiled concerning trends regarding India’s bird population.
  • The study highlights a substantial decline in numerous bird species, attributing this decline to a range of factors.

About SoIB Report

  • The SoIB report aims to evaluate the conservation status of a wide range of species regularly present in India.
  • It is published by a partnership involving 13 governmental and non-governmental organizations, including SACON, WII, and ZSI.
  • The report extensively employs data from over 30 million observations on eBird by more than 30,000 birdwatchers.
  • The report assesses distribution range size, abundance trends over the long term and since 2015, and information from the IUCN Red List to categorize Indian species into Low, Moderate, and High Conservation Priority tiers.

Key Highlights of the Report

  • Widespread Decline: Among the species analyzed, 60% of those assessed for long-term trends show decline, while 40% exhibit a decline in current annual trends.
  • Raptors and Vultures: Birds consuming vertebrates and carrion, including raptors and vultures, have significantly declined, possibly due to pollutants or prey availability reduction.
  • Endemics and Biodiversity Hotspots: Endemic species in the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot have experienced rapid declines over the past decades.
  • Positive Outlook: Certain generalist species, exemplified by the Indian peafowl, demonstrate remarkable increases in abundance, with a 150% rise observed over the past decades.
  • Conservation Priority: The report classifies species into High, Moderate, and Low Conservation Priority, with 178 species as High Priority, 323 as Moderate, and 441 as Low Priority. Noteworthy species include the Ruddy shelduck, Indian courser, Narcondam hornbill, and Nicobar megapode.

Identified Threats to Bird Species

  • The report underscores threats encompassing forest degradation, urbanization, energy infrastructure.
  • Birds are highly impacted by environmental pollutants like Nimesulide affecting vulture populations, climate change’s impacts on migratory species, avian diseases, and illegal hunting and trade.

Actions and Research Implications

  • Targeted Conservation: The report advocates for the conservation of specific groups, such as grassland specialists that have suffered a more than 50% decline, highlighting the importance of protecting and preserving grassland ecosystems.
  • Long-Term Monitoring: The significance of continuous, systematic bird population monitoring is emphasized to comprehend subtle fluctuations in bird numbers.
  • In-Depth Research: Further research is needed to understand the causes behind both declines and increases in bird populations.
  • Synergy among Policies: The report calls for the harmonization of policies related to river, water, and wasteland development, recognizing the multifaceted role of abundant, widespread bird species.
  • Citizen Participation: Citizen Engagement plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, warranting an essential role in the action plan for bird population and habitat preservation.

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Financial Inclusion in India and Its Challenges

Progress track: PM Jan Dhan Yojana’s Milestones

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: PM Jan Dhan Yojana

Mains level: Financial Inclusion

jan dhan

Central Idea

  • As the PM Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) completes 9 years, its remarkable journey is marked by over 50 crore bank accounts and deposits exceeding ₹2 lakh crore.
  • The scheme’s success lies in its commitment to financial inclusion, creating avenues for underprivileged segments to access banking services and government schemes.

What is PM Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY)?

  • The PMJDY is a financial inclusion program launched by the Indian government in 2014.
  • It is National Mission for Financial Inclusion to ensure access to financial services, namely, a basic savings & deposit accounts, remittance, credit, insurance, pension in an affordable manner.
  • Under the scheme, a basic savings bank deposit (BSBD) account can be opened in any bank branch or Business Correspondent (Bank Mitra) outlet, by persons not having any other account.

Benefits under PMJDY

  • One basic savings bank account is opened for unbanked person.
  • There is no requirement to maintain any minimum balance in PMJDY accounts.
  • Interest is earned on the deposit in PMJDY accounts.
  • Rupay Debit card is provided to the account holder.
  • Accident Insurance Cover of Rs.1 lakh (enhanced to Rs. 2 lakh to new PMJDY accounts opened after 28.8.2018) is available with RuPay card issued to the PMJDY account holders.
  • An overdraft (OD) facility up to Rs. 10,000 to eligible account holders is available.

Is PMJDY a success?

  • Dormancy of accounts: The PMJDY scheme has led to an increase in the number of bank accounts in rural areas. The percentage of zero-balance accounts has significantly decreased from 58% in March 2015 to a mere 8%, indicating a more active engagement with banking services.
  • Low or no transactions: Insurance coverage for the account holder is linked to their transaction history, and many accounts remain frozen due to lack of transactions, taking several weeks or months to reactivate.
  • False promise of overdraft: The promised overdraft facility of Rs 5000 for new account holders has not been provided as promised, leading to scepticism about the scheme’s success.
  • Payments bottleneck: The lack of proper connectivity, electricity, internet, and ATM facilities in rural areas has hindered the activation of RuPay cards and PIN numbers, which should have been considered before implementing such a large-scale program.

Future prospects

  • Voluntary Participation: The government aims to persuade PMJDY account holders to opt for voluntary micro-insurance schemes like PMJJBY and Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana.
  • Persuasion over Compulsion: The focus is on financial literacy campaigns, special drives, and awareness programs conducted by banks to help account holders make informed choices.
  • Multi-Level Coordination: Collaboration with line ministries, including Anganwadi and Asha workers, enhances awareness campaigns and ensures wider coverage.
  • Leveraging Databases: Utilization of databases like the E-Shram portal for labour-related information aids in identifying potential beneficiaries.

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Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

Why El Nino is now India’s no. 1 Economic and Political Risk?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: ENSO, El Nino, La Nina, Monsoon

Mains level: Political-Economic implications of El-Nino on Indian Society

el nino risk

Central Idea

  • The emergence of El Nino as a significant climatic phenomenon in India carries dual implications – economic and political – as the country gears up for national elections in April-May 2024.
  • With its known ability to suppress rainfall and disrupt agricultural cycles, El Nino’s effects are already being felt.

Understanding El Nino and La Nina

  • El Nino and La Nina are two opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
  • ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific.

Here is a detailed comparison of El Nino and La Nina

El Nino La Nina
Definition Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures
Frequency Every two to seven years Every two to seven years
Duration Several months to a year or more Several months to a year or more
Impact on winds Weakens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns Strengthens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns
Impact on rains Reduces rainfall and can cause droughts Increases rainfall and can cause flooding
Impact on temp. Warmer-than-average temperatures Colder-than-average temperatures
Global effects Droughts in Asia and Africa, floods in Americas Floods in Asia and Africa, droughts in South America

Impact on India

El Nino La Nina
Associated with weak monsoons and drought-like conditions in India Associated with above-normal rainfall and floods in India
Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rises above normal levels Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops below normal levels
Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns
Shift in the location of the jet stream, affecting the strength and direction of the monsoon winds Increase in the strength of the monsoon winds, bringing more moisture and rainfall to India
Results in reduced rainfall, dry spells, and heatwaves, leading to crop failures and water scarcity Excessive rainfall can also lead to floods and landslides, causing damage to crops and infrastructure

Broader Implications:

[A] Agriculture

  • Rainfall Deficit: August’s nationwide rainfall stands at 30.7% below normal, erasing the initial 4.2% surplus from the southwest monsoon.
  • Strengthening El Nino: July saw the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) surpass the El Nino threshold, hitting 1 degree Celsius, suggesting an intensification of El Nino.
  • Projected Persistence: Forecasts predict El Nino’s continuation and possible strengthening during the 2023-24 winter season, potentially impacting the northeast monsoon and winter seasons.

[B] Food Supply Challenges

  • Crucial Monsoon: Beyond crop yield, the southwest monsoon replenishes reservoirs and recharges groundwater, essential for agricultural success.
  • Rabi Season Dependence: The success of rabi season crops like wheat, mustard, and chickpea hinges on water reserves, primarily sourced from aquifers and reservoirs.
  • Supply-Demand Nexus: With rice and wheat stocks at a six-year low and food inflation at 11.5%, El Nino-induced shortfalls may exacerbate food inflation concerns.

[C] Political Implications

  • Food Inflation: Examining consumer food price inflation leading up to previous Lok Sabha elections reveals its considerable impact on political outcomes.
  • Electoral Influence: The BJP’s 2019 electoral victory and the UPA’s 2014 defeat were partially attributed to the level of food inflation during those periods.
  • Government Actions: The Modi administration has already taken steps to ensure food availability, curb hoarding, and address potential food inflation concerns.

Conclusion

  • El Nino’s emergence as a formidable environmental and political factor underscores the intricate interplay between climate patterns, agriculture, and political dynamics.
  • India’s ability to manage the far-reaching consequences of El Nino on food production and inflation will determine its capacity to address immediate challenges while considering the longer-term goals.

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