February 2024
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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

Can India become a $7 Trillion Economy by 2030?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: $7 Trillion Economy

Mains level: Read the attached story

$7 Trillion Economy

Introduction

  • The Indian government’s recent review of the economy has set an ambitious target of achieving a $7 trillion economy by 2030.
  • This article analyzes the feasibility of this goal and explores the factors that contribute to India’s economic outlook.

$7 Trillion Economy: Key Findings

  • Robust Growth: The review expects India to sustain a growth rate of 7% or higher in the fiscal years 2023-24 and beyond.
  • Economic Strengths: The government highlights significant strengths, including substantial infrastructure investments, a healthy financial sector, strong household finances, comfortable forex reserves, controlled inflation, and a decreasing fiscal deficit.
  • $7 Trillion Vision: Based on these factors, the review envisions India reaching a $7 trillion economy by 2030.

India’s Economic Journey

  • Historic Growth: India took 60 years to reach a $1 trillion economy (2007-08), achieved $2 trillion in just seven years (2014-15), and surpassed $3 trillion by 2021-22.
  • Current Status: India is now the world’s fifth-largest economy, with a GDP estimated to reach $3.7 trillion by the end of 2023-24.

Obstacles to Rapid Growth

  • Slower Growth Phase: After a period of rapid growth, India’s economy began to decelerate post-2014, exacerbated by events such as demonetization in 2016 and the pandemic-induced contraction.
  • Ambitious Targets: India had set ambitious targets of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 and a $10 trillion economy by 2029-30, but achieving them will require overcoming challenges.
  • Growth Rate Hurdle: To reach a $7 trillion economy by 2030, India must achieve a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% from 2023-24 to 2029-30, compared to the expected CAGR of 6.7% from 2013-14 to 2023-24.

Challenges Ahead

  • Global Economic Trends: Developed economies are facing declining growth due to inflation and environmental concerns, which could affect India’s export prospects.
  • Protectionism: Increasing protectionism in the global trade landscape poses challenges for India’s export-oriented growth.
  • Geo-Political Uncertainties: Geo-political tensions can fuel inflation and hinder economic growth, presenting additional hurdles.

Conclusion

  • While India’s economic potential remains substantial, achieving a $7 trillion economy by 2030 is a formidable challenge.
  • The nation must navigate global economic shifts, tackle protectionist policies, and address geo-political uncertainties to realize this ambitious vision.
  • Success will require sustained efforts and innovative strategies to drive economic growth and resilience.

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Poverty Eradication – Definition, Debates, etc.

Multidimensional Poverty in India: A Decade of Progress

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Multidimensional Poverty

Mains level: Read the attached story

Multidimensional Poverty

Introduction

  • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced in her Interim Budget speech that 25 crore Indians were lifted out of poverty over the past decade.
  • This remarkable achievement reflects the government’s commitment to inclusivity.

Data from NITI Aayog’s Discussion Paper

  • NITI Aayog’s Insight: The data comes from a discussion paper titled “Multidimensional Poverty in India Since 2005-06,” authored by Ramesh Chand and Yogesh Suri from NITI Aayog, with inputs from the UNDP and OPHI.
  • Decline in Multidimensional Poverty: The paper reveals that multidimensional poverty in India reduced from 29.17% in 2013-14 to 11.28% in 2022-23, with around 24.82 crore individuals escaping poverty during this period.
  • State-Level Impact: Uttar Pradesh topped the list with 5.94 crore individuals escaping poverty, followed by Bihar at 3.77 crore and Madhya Pradesh at 2.30 crore.

Understanding the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

  • A Novel Approach: MPI differs from traditional poverty measures, incorporating health, education, and living standards. These three dimensions each hold one-third weight in the index.
  • Indicators: MPI uses 10 indicators, including nutrition, child mortality, education, housing, and access to basic amenities, offering a comprehensive view of poverty.
  • India’s Unique MPI: India’s MPI includes additional indicators focusing on maternal health and access to bank accounts, aligning it with national priorities.

Calculating MPI

  • Identifying “MPI Poor”: If an individual is deprived in at least one-third of the 10 weighted indicators, they are considered “MPI poor.”
  • Three Key Calculations: MPI requires three calculations:
    1. Incidence of Multidimensional Poverty (H): The proportion of MPI poor individuals in the population.
    2. Intensity of Poverty (A): The average proportion of deprivation experienced by MPI poor individuals.
    3. MPI Value: Obtained by multiplying H and A, revealing the share of weighted deprivations faced by MPI poor individuals.

Data Sources and Estimations

  • Health Metrics: Data for health indicators relies on the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), conducted every five years. The last round covered the 2019-21 period.
  • Calculating MPI for 2012-13 and 2022-23: The paper used interpolation for 2013-14 estimates and extrapolation for 2022-23, enabling a comparison of poverty and deprivation trends.

Conclusion

  • The reduction in multidimensional poverty over the last decade signifies the government’s dedication to inclusive development, improving the lives of millions of Indians.

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Historical and Archaeological Findings in News

Will Europe ever return ‘Looted’ Asian Artifacts?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: 1970 UNESCO Convention

Mains level: Return of Artifacts

Artifacts

Introduction

  • European museums have faced increasing pressure to return cultural artifacts to their countries of origin.
  • The restitution of these artifacts carries significant implications for diplomacy and international relations.

France’s Pledge and Precedent

  • France’s Commitment: President Emmanuel Macron pledged support during the visit of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet to return Khmer artifacts and expand the National Museum of Cambodia.
  • First European Leader: Macron became the first European leader to address demands for the return of looted antiquities in 2017, emphasizing France’s commitment to restoring cultural heritage.

Cases of Repatriation

  • Musee Guimet’s Return: France’s National Museum of Asian art, Musee Guimet, agreed to return a seventh-century Khmer statue to Cambodia, taken during the colonial era.
  • Global Initiatives: Germany and France allocated funds for reviewing African heritage objects, possibly signaling similar efforts for Asian artifacts.
  • The Met’s Decision: The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York pledged to return sculptures to Cambodia and Thailand, setting a precedent for other institutions.

Legal Basis and Challenges

  • UNESCO Convention: 1970 UNESCO Convention on the Means of Prohibiting and Preventing the Illicit Import, Export and Transfer of Ownership of Cultural Property
  • Non-binding: It is a key legal framework for repatriation, but it doesn’t apply retrospectively to colonial-era looting.
  • National Legislation: Some countries, like Austria, are proposing national laws for returning objects acquired during colonialism.

Reasons for repatriation

  • Soft Power Benefits: Repatriation can enhance a nation’s soft power, showcasing a commitment to international law, reconciliation, and better relations with affected countries.
  • Rebranding Opportunity: Returning artifacts is seen as an opportunity for Western governments to rebrand and mend historical wrongs, especially in regions like Southeast Asia.
  • EU’s Role: The European Parliament discusses the need for recognizing and addressing colonial legacies and restitution, potentially creating a permanent EU body on restorative justice.
  • Cooperation is Key: To gain recognition similar to the United States, European museums need to cooperate openly with the governments of the regions from which the artifacts originated.

Conclusion

  • The return of cultural artifacts taken during colonialism is not only a legal and ethical issue but also a diplomatic endeavor.
  • European museums that engage in proactive repatriation efforts can build goodwill, foster cooperation, and enhance their soft power on the global stage.

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Uniform Civil Code: Triple Talaq debate, Polygamy issue, etc.

Uttarakhand readies Final UCC draft

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Uniform Civil Code (UCC)

Mains level: Read the attached story

ucc

Introduction

  • Uttarakhand is taking important steps to implement a Uniform Civil Code (UCC).
  • The state has received the final report from a committee, which is a significant move towards fulfilling its commitment to equality and justice.

Tap to read everything about Uniform Civil Code:

India needs a Uniform Civil Code: PM

Uttarakhand UCC

  • Expert Committee: Uttarakhand appointed a committee, led by retired Justice Ranjana Prakash Desai, to draft the UCC.
  • In the State Assembly: The UCC report will be presented in the State Assembly on February 5 for discussion. It will go through a detailed review before becoming law.

Key Recommendations

  • Gender Equality: The final UCC draft focuses on achieving gender equality and removing unfairness in various areas, including property rights and adoption rules.
  • Language Choice: Notably, the UCC draft is around 750 pages long, entirely written in Hindi, without any Urdu or other languages.
  • Protection of Tribal Community: The report suggests that the tribal community should not be included in the UCC. Their specific needs and concerns will be addressed separately.

Ensuring Equal Rights

  • Ban on Regressive Practices: The UCC draft recommends strong punishments for practices like triple talaq, iddat, and halala, which relate to marriage and divorce in Muslim personal law. It also proposes banning polygamy and polyandry.
  • Legalizing Live-In Relationships: The draft suggests making live-in relationships legal, with mandatory registration for such couples.
  • Equal Inheritance Rights: Women are granted the same rights as men when it comes to inheritance under the proposed UCC.
  • Minimum Marriage Age: The UCC draft suggests setting the minimum age for women’s marriage at 21 years.

Conclusion

  • Uttarakhand’s efforts to establish a Uniform Civil Code demonstrate its commitment to ensuring equal rights and justice for all.
  • The careful drafting process, inclusive approach, and strong recommendations underscore the state’s determination to promote gender equality and eliminate regressive practices.

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Electoral Reforms In India

How Political Parties are created in India?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Political Parties

Mains level: Read the attached story

political parties

Introduction

  • Tamil superstar Thalapathy Vijay’s announcement of his political party has sparked interest in the process of registering political entities in India.

Creating a Political Party

  • Legal Framework: Article 324 of the Indian Constitution and Section 29A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 empower the Election Commission to lay down guidelines for party registration.
  • Application: A party seeking registration must apply to the Election Commission within 30 days of its formation.
  • Public Notice: The applicant must publish the proposed party name in two national and two local daily newspapers. The notice is also posted on the Election Commission’s website.
  • Documentation: The application, in a prescribed format, must be sent to the Election Commission Secretary within 30 days of party formation. It should include a demand draft of Rs. 10,000, a printed copy of the party’s memorandum, rules, or constitution, and the latest electoral rolls for at least 100 party members.
  • Affidavits: An affidavit, duly signed by the President or General Secretary and sworn before a Magistrate/Notary Public, is required. Additionally, individual affidavits from 100 members confirming non-membership in any other registered political party are essential.

Need for Registration

  • Not Mandatory: Registration with the Election Commission is not mandatory but comes with advantages under the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
  • Symbol Allotment: Registered party candidates receive priority in the allotment of free symbols over independent candidates.
  • State or National Recognition: Parties can achieve recognition as ‘state parties’ or ‘national parties,’ subject to fulfilling conditions laid out in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.

Recognition Criteria

  • State Party: To be recognized as a state party, a registered party must meet any of these five conditions:
    1. Secure at least 6% of valid votes and win at least 2 seats in an Assembly General Election.
    2. Secure at least 6% of valid votes and win at least 1 seat in a Lok Sabha General Election.
    3. Win at least 3% of the seats or at least 3 seats, whichever is more, in an Assembly General Election.
    4. Win at least 1 out of every 25 seats from a state in a Lok Sabha General Election.
    5. Secure at least 8% of the total valid vote in an Assembly or Lok Sabha General Election.
  • National Party: To attain national party status, a registered party must meet any of these three conditions:
    1. Secure at least 6% of valid votes in an Assembly or Lok Sabha General Election in four or more states and win at least 4 seats in a Lok Sabha General Election from any state.
    2. Win at least 2% of total Lok Sabha seats in a Lok Sabha General Election, spanning at least 3 states.
    3. The party is recognized as a State Party in at least four states.

Benefits of Recognition

  • Reserved Symbol: State parties receive a reserved symbol within the state, while national parties can use the reserved symbol across the country.
  • Nomination Ease: Such parties require only one proposer for filing nominations.
  • Free Electoral Rolls: They are entitled to two sets of electoral rolls free of cost.
  • Media Access: Recognized parties can use state-owned Akashvani/Doordarshan facilities for broadcasting/telecasting during general elections.
  • Additional Perks: Recognized parties can avail of other advantages such as subsidized land for party offices, among others.

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Freedom of Speech – Defamation, Sedition, etc.

22nd Law Commission recommends retaining Criminal Defamation

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Criminal Defamation, Law Commission

Mains level: Read the attached story

defamation

Introduction

  • The 22nd Law Commission has recommended retaining criminal defamation as an offence in the new legal framework of Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita.
  • The Law Commission’s report highlights the importance of protecting an individual’s reputation, grounded in Article 21 of the Constitution, which safeguards the right to life and personal liberty.

Key Recommendations: Upholding Reputation

  • Invisible Asset: Reputation, a valuable asset, cannot be seen but is diligently built over a lifetime and can be tarnished in an instant.
  • Essence of Protection: The jurisprudence around criminal defamation laws is rooted in the essence of safeguarding one’s reputation.
  • Balancing Act: While acknowledging that criminal defamation might seem contradictory to freedom of speech and expression, the Law Commission suggests treading carefully.
  • Harmful Speech: The Commission advises that speech should only be deemed illegal when it intends substantial harm, and when such harm becomes a reality.

What is Criminal Defamation?

  • Defamation: Defamation entails the act of publishing damaging content that diminishes an individual’s or entity’s reputation, from the viewpoint of an ordinary person. In India, defamation is both a civil and criminal offense.
  • Sections 499 and 500: These sections in the Indian Penal Code address criminal defamation. Section 499 defines the offense, while Section 500 outlines the associated punishment.

Arguments in Favor of Retaining Criminal Defamation

  • Protection of Reputation: An individual’s reputation, an integral part of Article 21, is as vital as free speech.
  • Balancing Act: The right to free speech (Article 19(1)(a)) must be balanced against the right to reputation (Article 21).
  • Inadequate Compensation: Monetary compensation in civil defamation may not proportionately compensate for reputation harm.
  • Editorial Responsibility: Editors bear the responsibility for published content, with significant consequences for individuals and the nation.
  • Counteracting Online Defamation: In the absence of an effective internet censorship mechanism, criminalizing defamation is a necessary safeguard.
  • State’s Interest: Criminalizing defamation is part of the state’s compelling interest to protect citizens’ dignity and reputation.

Arguments against Retaining  

  • Chilling Effect: Criminal defamation may have a chilling effect on free speech, with a lower threshold for prosecution than civil damages.
  • Media Freedom: Freedom of speech and media expression is crucial for vibrant democracies, and the threat of prosecution can stifle truth.
  • Misinterpretation of Dissent: Dissent may be misconstrued as unpalatable criticism, leading to imprisonment under Sections 499 and 500 of IPC.
  • Collective Reputation: The right to reputation cannot extend to collectives like the government, which can rectify reputational damage.
  • Redundancy: Since civil defamation remedies exist, retaining criminal defamation may serve little purpose except coercion and harassment.
  • Global Trend: Many nations, including neighbouring Sri Lanka and the UK, have decriminalized defamation.
  • International Perspective: The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights urges states to abolish criminal defamation as it intimidates citizens and deters exposing wrongdoing.

Conclusion

  • Criminal defamation cases have been used to suppress investigative journalism, hindering democratic accountability.
  • Criminal defamation should not be misused by the state, especially as the Code of Criminal Procedure gives public servants an advantage.
  • Interim measures can ensure fair proceedings and prevent excessive penalties.

Back2Basics: Law Commission of India

Details
Establishment An executive body established by the Government of India, with the first commission established in 1955.
Tenure Each Law Commission serves a term of three years.
Function Acts as an advisory body to the Ministry of Law and Justice for legal reforms in India.
Recommendations The recommendations made by the Law Commission are not binding.
Historical Background The first Law Commission was established during the British Raj in 1834 by the Charter Act of 1833.
First Chairman The first Chairman of the Law Commission was Macaulay, who recommended the codification of laws.
Composition Typically consists of a full-time Chairperson, full-time Members, ex-officio Members, and part-time Members.
Terms of Reference Undertakes research and reviews of existing laws, recommends reforms, and studies justice delivery systems.
Major Reforms The Law Commission played a pivotal role in suggesting key enactments like the Indian Penal Code and Criminal Procedure Code.
Role in Legal Reforms Serves as both an advisory and critical body, with its recommendations often influencing legal reforms in India.
Supreme Court References The Supreme Court has referred to the work of the Law Commission and followed its recommendations in various cases.
Promotion of Accountability Aims to promote an accountable and citizen-friendly government, transparency, and the right to information.

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

A rising tide lifts all boats

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Human Papillomavirus vaccination

Mains level: India's economic growth and achievements

BJP on X: "India emerges as the fastest growing economy of the world in IMF  report with growth rate of 7.4%. https://t.co/Sta44gkaZI" / X

Central Idea:

India has experienced a significant economic transformation, becoming the world’s fastest-growing economy. The Interim Budget reflects this progress, emphasizing preventive healthcare, innovation, and medical value travel. The private sector’s rising role is crucial for economic development and improving the overall quality of life.

Key Highlights:

  • India’s rapid economic growth, outpacing the global average.
  • Successful space program and adept management of renewable and non-renewable energy.
  • Interim Budget aligns with the aspirations of a new India, emphasizing opportunities.
  • Focus on preventive healthcare, particularly the promotion of HPV vaccination.
  • Maternal and child health prioritized to enhance women’s participation in the workforce.
  • Commitment to innovation with a ₹1 lakh crore corpus for research and technology.
  • Medical value travel’s rising prominence, making India a global healthcare destination.
  • Private sector’s significant role in economic growth and shaping the future.

Key Challenges:

  • Ensuring sustained economic growth amidst global uncertainties.
  • Scaling up preventive healthcare initiatives to cover various diseases.
  • Balancing budget allocations to address healthcare needs adequately.
  • Overcoming infrastructure challenges for medical value travel.
  • Ensuring inclusive growth and managing disparities in economic development.

Key Terms:

  • HPV Vaccination: Human Papillomavirus vaccination to prevent cervical cancer.
  • Medical Value Travel: Tourism driven by healthcare services.
  • Innovation Revolution: Emphasizing technology and research for development.
  • Interim Budget: A temporary budget presented in the middle of a fiscal year.

Key Phrases:

  • “Buoyancy of metrics and spirit.”
  • “Innovation as a key pillar of development.”
  • “Medical value travel transforming the landscape.”
  • “Private sector rising beyond expectations.”

Key Quotes:

  • “No country can afford it if its citizens fall ill.”
  • “Innovation has the potential to create a significant impact at scale.”
  • “India will truly be limitless if we continue to work together.”

Anecdotes:

  • Reference to Aragonda in Andhra Pradesh, a village where HPV vaccination is being promoted.
  • Mention of ‘Heal in India’ transforming the healthcare landscape.

Key Statements:

  • “India’s space program has won the admiration of the world.”
  • “Preventive health is crucial for the overall well-being of the nation.”
  • “The private sector plays a meaningful role not just in the economy but in how we live our lives.”

Key Examples and References:

  • India’s success in achieving a 70-year life expectancy with less than 2% budgetary allocation for health.
  • The commitment of ₹1 lakh crore for innovation and technology in the Interim Budget.

Key Facts:

  • India’s economic growth rate surpassing the global average.
  • Increase in life expectancy from 53 to 70 years in the last four decades.

Key Data:

  • ₹1 lakh crore corpus for research and technology in the Interim Budget.
  • India’s growth rate compared to the global average.

Critical Analysis:

  • The article provides an optimistic view of India’s economic growth and achievements.
  • Emphasis on preventive healthcare and innovation aligns with global trends.
  • Challenges include addressing healthcare needs comprehensively and ensuring inclusive growth.

Way Forward:

  • Sustain economic growth through continued emphasis on innovation and technology.
  • Strengthen preventive healthcare initiatives for comprehensive disease prevention.
  • Address infrastructure challenges for medical value travel to enhance India’s global healthcare appeal.
  • Ensure inclusive growth, managing economic disparities effectively.

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Banking Sector Reforms

Exposing India’s financial markets to the vultures

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Fully accessible route (FAR) bonds

Mains level: India's efforts in integrating government bonds into global indices

Internationalisation of Rupee - Rau's IAS

 

Central Idea:

The article discusses India’s efforts to integrate its government bonds into global indices, focusing on J.P. Morgan and Bloomberg’s recent moves. It explores the potential benefits and risks associated with opening local bond markets to foreign investors, emphasizing the broader initiative to internationalize the Indian rupee. The author cautions against underestimating the risks involved in such a move and suggests a more cautious approach to currency internationalization.

 

Key Highlights:

  • Timeline of Initiatives: The process of incorporating Indian government bonds into global indices began in 2019, with J.P. Morgan and Bloomberg making significant announcements in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • Benefits of Internationalization: The article highlights potential benefits, including access to international resources, stability in funds tracking indices, and facilitating financing of current account and fiscal deficits.
  • Original Sin Problem: Opening local currency bond markets helps shift exchange rate risk onto international lenders, addressing the “original sin” problem faced by emerging economies borrowing in reserve currencies.
  • Loss of Autonomy and Risks: The internationalization of bond markets exposes emerging economies to a loss of autonomy, interest rate risks, and vulnerability to global liquidity conditions, as seen in past instances.
  • Currency Internationalization: Besides bonds, the article discusses the broader effort to internationalize the Indian rupee, involving offshore markets and trade settlement in INR.

 

Key Challenges:

  • Exchange Rate Volatility: Opening local currency bond markets makes inflows volatile due to exchange rate risk, leading to sudden stops and exits by foreign investors.
  • Interest Rate Risks: Increased exposure to global interest rate fluctuations can impact long-term rates and domestic bond markets during periods of global market distress.
  • Speculation and Instability: The creation of offshore markets for the Indian rupee poses risks of speculation and potential instability, as seen in the experiences of Malaysia and Türkiye.

 

Key Terms:

  • Original Sin: The inability of emerging economies to borrow internationally in their own currencies, exposing them to exchange rate risk.
  • Fully Accessible Route (FAR): A segment of Indian government bonds made officially accessible to foreign investors without constraints.
  • Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM): An index suite that includes local currency government bonds from emerging market countries.

 

Key Phrases:

  • “Original sin problem”
  • “Fully accessible route (FAR) bonds”
  • “Currency internationalisation”
  • “Offshore INR market”

 

Key Quotes:

  • “Currency internationalisation cannot be decided in one day and pursued the next. It comes about after a long evolutionary process, when all the building blocks are in place.” – Y.V. Reddy

 

Key Statements:

  • The move to include Indian government bonds in global indices is part of a broader effort to internationalize the Indian rupee.
  • The risks associated with opening local bond markets are underestimated, and caution is advised in pursuing currency internationalization.

 

Key Examples and References:

  • Malaysia and Türkiye Experiences: Instances of offshore market speculation leading to financial distress, with Malaysia implementing capital controls in 1998 and Türkiye taking measures against offshore lira speculation in 2022.

 

Key Facts:

  • Timeline: The process of incorporating Indian government bonds into global indices started in 2019, with J.P. Morgan and Bloomberg making significant announcements in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

 

Key Data:

  • Number of Banks Authorized: The RBI has granted authorization to 17 banks for settling trade in the Indian rupee across 18 countries, establishing 65 offshore deposit accounts.

 

Critical Analysis:

  • The article critically examines the potential benefits and risks associated with the internationalization of bond markets and currencies, emphasizing the importance of a sustained development process and improved economic performance.

 

Way Forward:

  • Suggests a cautious approach to currency internationalization, highlighting the need for all building blocks to be in place and emphasizing the role of sustained financial system development and improved economic performance.

 

In conclusion, the article provides a comprehensive overview of India’s efforts in integrating government bonds into global indices, discussing the associated benefits, risks, and broader initiatives for currency internationalization. It underscores the importance of a cautious approach and sustained development in managing financial integration.

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