From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Impact of Climate change;
Why in the News?
The record warming of 2023-2024 is offering a clearer view of the impacts of global warming. The range of extreme events experienced globally has spanned from deadly heatwaves to devastating cyclones and floods, as well as droughts and wildfires.
Impact of Warming on Predictability:
Increased Variability: The record warming of 2023-2024 highlights the unpredictability of climate systems under global warming, complicating forecasts for natural phenomena like El Niño, monsoons, and hurricanes.
Natural Variability: Warming may extend the timescale of natural decadal variability, making it harder to distinguish between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in climate behaviour.
Model Limitations: Despite advances, climate models are imperfect in capturing changes in dominant climate modes due to warming, leading to inconsistencies in predicting events like monsoon trends.
Types of Climate Models to forecast the weather:
General Circulation Models (GCMs): These models simulate the physics of the climate system by representing the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. They divide the Earth into a three-dimensional grid and calculate climate variables like temperature and humidity in each grid cell.
Earth System Models (ESMs): An advanced subset of GCMs that includes biogeochemical cycles, allowing them to simulate interactions between climate and ecological processes, such as carbon and nitrogen cycles.
Regional Climate Models (RCMs): These focus on smaller geographic areas to provide more detailed climate projections by using outputs from GCMs as inputs for localized simulations.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): These combine climate science with socioeconomic factors to analyze how human activities influence climate change and to project future emissions scenarios.
Challenges in Forecasting Extreme Weather:
Inconsistent Predictions: Predictions for extreme weather events in 2023, such as the monsoon and hurricane seasons, were less accurate, revealing the limitations of current models and observational networks.
Unforeseen Factors: Unanticipated contributions, like the impact of the Hunga Tonga volcano or wildfire-induced CO2 emissions, exacerbated warming in ways models failed to predict, illustrating the unpredictability of new factors.
Censorship Concerns: The rapid response required from social media platforms to act on content flagged as misleading within 36 hours created concerns about censorship and freedom of expression.
Future of Weather Prediction Models:
Need for Model Improvements: There is ongoing work to refine models and incorporate the latest technologies, including AI and machine learning, to improve weather prediction accuracy at hyperlocal scales.
Natural Modes and Uncertainty: The predictability of natural modes (El Niño, La Niña, IOD) may decrease with relentless warming, making future climate forecasts increasingly uncertain.
Short-Term Focus: A shift toward short-term predictions (up to a decade or two) may offer more reliable projections due to the inherent difficulty in predicting long-term scenarios under continuous global warming.
Way forward:
Enhanced Climate Models: Invest in improving climate models with cutting-edge technologies like AI, machine learning, and advanced sensors to increase the accuracy of short-term forecasts and better capture the impact of natural variability under warming.
Localized Early Warning Systems: Develop robust, hyperlocal early warning systems to better prepare for extreme weather events, focusing on disaster management and reducing vulnerabilities in high-risk communities.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Issues related to Nuclear bombs;
Why in the News?
September 26 is recognized on the United Nations calendar as the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.
What is the current state of global nuclear disarmament efforts?
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): The TPNW, in force since 2021, is the first legally binding international agreement that comprehensively bans nuclear weapons. As of July 2024, it has 70 states parties and 27 signatories yet to ratify, covering nearly 50% of the world’s states.
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): The NPT, in effect since 1970, remains the foundational treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting eventual disarmament. However, it has been criticized for its limited focus on actual disarmament.
Persistent Objectors: Nuclear-armed states (such as the U.S., Russia, China, India, and Pakistan) and their allies have consistently opposed the TPNW, refusing to be bound by its provisions.
What are the key obstacles hindering further nuclear disarmament?
Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine: The belief in nuclear deterrence — the idea that possessing nuclear weapons prevents attacks — is a central justification for continued nuclear armament.
Nuclear-Weapon States’ Resistance: The nuclear-armed states, including the U.S., Russia, China, India, and others, continue to view nuclear weapons as essential to their security strategies, despite claims of disarmament commitments under the NPT.
Geopolitical Conflicts: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rising military power, North Korea’s nuclear tests, and Iran’s uranium enrichment, have exacerbated the global nuclear threat, further impeding disarmament efforts.
Lack of Enforcement Mechanisms: The TPNW, while normatively important, lacks robust enforcement mechanisms. It depends on the voluntary commitment of states, and nuclear possessors do not face direct penalties for non-compliance.
What steps can be taken to reinvigorate the nuclear disarmament agenda? (Way forward)
Strengthening International Advocacy: Civil society, former political leaders (including NATO officials), and international organizations should continue advocating for disarmament and urging nuclear-armed states and their allies to reconsider their stance. Public pressure could create the political will for further disarmament steps.
Engagement of Non-Nuclear States: States that are non-nuclear but support the TPNW should work to expand the treaty’s footprint, encouraging more countries to ratify and actively participate in its framework. This could help isolate nuclear possessors diplomatically and morally.
Building Confidence through Arms Control Treaties: Reviving arms control agreements, such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the New START treaty, would be important milestones in reducing nuclear risks.
About CTBT:
Complete Ban on Nuclear Testing: The CTBT prohibits all forms of nuclear explosions—whether for military or civilian purposes—across all environments, including underground, atmospheric, and underwater.
Robust Verification Mechanism: The treaty includes an International Monitoring System (IMS) of over 300 monitoring stations worldwide, capable of detecting nuclear tests, as well as provisions for on-site inspections to ensure compliance with the treaty’s terms.
India is not a signatory to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Diplomatic Pressure and Dialogue: Encouraging diplomatic dialogue, especially among the major nuclear powers, could help mitigate tensions and create pathways to gradual disarmament. Leaders must explore confidence-building measures, transparency, and mutual reductions in nuclear arsenals.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Fundamental Rights and its implication;
Why in the News?
On September 20, the Bombay High Court declared the amended IT Rules, 2021, unconstitutional for empowering the Centre’s Fact Check Unit to flag “fake or misleading” content about the government, citing vagueness.
Justice Atul Sharachchandra Chandurkar delivered the decisive ruling as the tie-breaker judge, following a split verdict by a division bench of Justices G.S. Patel and Neela Gokhale in January 2024.
Why did the Bombay High Court strike down IT Rules, 2021?
Violation of Constitutional Rights: Justice Atul Chandurkar ruled that the amended rules violated Articles 14 (right to equality) and 19 (freedom of speech and expression) of the Constitution. He characterized the terms “fake, false, or misleading” as vague and overbroad, which could lead to arbitrary enforcement by the government.
Censorship Concerns: The court emphasized that the rules amounted to censorship and lacked necessary procedural safeguards. Justice Patel’s earlier opinion highlighted that they effectively made the government a “judge in its own cause,” undermining free speech.
Chilling Effect on Intermediaries: The requirement for social media intermediaries to act on flagged content within 36 hours to retain their legal protections was seen as creating a chilling effect, discouraging platforms from hosting diverse opinions and criticisms of the government.
About Fact Check Unit:
The Fact Check Unit (FCU) under the Press Information Bureau (PIB) of the Government of India was established to combat misinformation and fake news related to government policies and initiatives.
The PIB’s FCU was established in November 2019 and was formally notified as the central government’s fact-checking body under the amended Information Technology (IT) Rules, 2021.
What did the amended rules ask of social media intermediaries?
The amended Rule 3(1)(b)(v) mandated that social media intermediaries must:
Make “reasonable efforts” to prevent users from uploading content flagged by the FCU as misinformation.
Remove such flagged content within 36 hours if they wish to maintain their “safe harbour” protection against liability for third-party content.
Supreme Court’s Intervention
Appointing Justice Chandurkar as a tie-breaker judge to provide a final ruling on the matter after petitions were filed challenging the amended rules.
Initially dismissing applications for an interim stay on the FCU’s establishment but later staying its operation until a final decision was reached regarding the constitutional validity of the rules.
Way forward:
Strengthen Procedural Safeguards: Any fact-checking mechanism should include clear, objective guidelines, and an independent review process to avoid arbitrariness and protect free speech rights under the Constitution.
Promote Transparency and Oversight: Establish a transparent, multi-stakeholder oversight body that includes civil society, legal experts, and technology professionals to ensure fair implementation and avoid misuse of content regulation powers.
India has officially joined the US-led Minerals Security Finance Network (MSFN), a global initiative to strengthen cooperation in securing critical mineral supply chains.
What is the Minerals Security Finance Network (MSFN)?
The MSFN is an initiative emerging from the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), established by the US in 2022.
It aims to promote cooperation, information exchange, and co-financing among countries.
It brings together development finance institutions (DFIs) and export credit agencies (ECAs) from partner nations to facilitate investments in critical mineral supply chains.
It seeks to meet the increasing global demand for critical minerals and reduce dependence on dominant suppliers like China.
AboutMinerals Security Partnership (MSP):
Details
Established
2022, by the United States
Objective
To ensure a stable, diversified, and secure supply of critical minerals essential for the global clean energy transition.
Members
13 countries and the European Commission, including: United States, Australia, Canada, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Norway, Sweden, and the European Union.
Focus Areas
• Securing critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements.
• Reducing dependency on dominant suppliers like China.
• Promoting cooperation between development finance institutions (DFIs) and export credit agencies (ECAs) to finance critical mineral projects.
Significance for India
• India joined in June 2023, aiming to secure minerals for its growing electric vehicle (EV) and electronics sectors.
• India seeks to diversify its supply sources from Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Africa.
Significance of Critical Minerals
Critical minerals are elements essential for the manufacturing of renewable energy technologies, such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and semiconductors.
Some of the most important critical minerals include:
Lithium: Essential for EV batteries.
Cobalt: Used in batteries and electronics.
Nickel: Key for battery manufacturing.
Rare earth elements (REEs): Used in semiconductors, high-tech electronics, and military applications.
The global demand for these minerals is rapidly rising as countries aim to shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
China is currently the world leader in both the mining and processing of many of these critical minerals, creating concerns about the concentration and resilience of supply chains.
Securing a reliable, diversified supply of critical minerals is essential for nations looking to achieve their clean energy goals and ensure economic stability in high-tech sectors.
PYQ:
[2012] Recently, there has been a concern over the short supply of a group of elements called ‘rare earth metals’. Why?
China, which is the largest producer of these elements, has imposed some restrictions on their export.
Other than China, Australia, Canada and Chile, these elements are not found in any country.
Rare earth metals are essential for the manufacture of various kinds of electronic items and there is a growing demand for these elements.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3
27 sectors including manufacturing, infrastructure, and services
Government as a facilitator, partnering with industries for economic development
Success of the Project
India is now the second-largestmobile phone producer globally.
The PLI Schemes have attracted ₹1.97 lakh crore in investment across 14 key sectors, generating 8 lakh jobs.
The PM GatiShakti initiative has improved logistics and transport connectivity, while India received $667.41 billion in FDI from 2014-2024.
Indigenous projects like INS Vikrant and Vande Bharat Trains have showcased India’s growth in manufacturing.
India improved its Ease of Doing Business ranking, moving from 142nd to 63rd.
Limitations:
The share of manufacturing in GDP has remained flat at 17.3% in 2023-24, the same level as in 2013-14, despite rising briefly to 18.5% in 2021-22.
Employment has declined, with manufacturing’s share in total employment falling from 11.6% in 2013-14 to 10.6% in 2022-23.
India’s share inglobal exports grew from 1% in 2005-06 to 1.6% by 2015-16, but only increased marginally to 1.8% by 2022-23.
Additionally, imports as a share of GDP have risen back to 25% in 2023-24, similar to 27% in 2013-14, after a dip to 21.2% in 2020-21 during the pandemic.
PYQ:
[2017] “Industrial growth rate has lagged behind in the overall growth of Gross-Domestic-Product (GDP) in the post-reform period.” Give reasons. How far are the recent changes in Industrial-Policy capable of increasing the industrial growth rate?
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Neom Megacity Project
Why in the News?
The Wall Street Journal has highlighted controversies surrounding the Neom Megacity Project, a key project of Saudi Arabia and world’s largest construction real-estate project.
AboutNeom Megacity Project:
Details
Location
Northwestern Tabuk Province, Saudi Arabia, along the Red Sea
Launched
2017 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
Objective
To diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil.
Size
26,500 sq km
Initially $500 billion, now estimated at $1.5 trillion
Completion Year
Expected by 2039
Key Projects
The Line: 170-km long linear city for 9 million residents
Oxagon: Octagonal industrial city
Trojena: Mountain resort for 2029 Asian Winter Games
Magna: Luxury coastal city
Sindalah: Luxury island, opening in 2024
Technological Focus
Renewable energy (solar, wind)
AI and robotics
Green hydrogen production
Environmental Goals
Powered by 95% renewable energy
Focus on sustainable development
Controversies surrounding the Project:
Displacement of Indigenous Tribes: The Huwaitat tribe has been forcibly displaced, leading to human rights concerns.
Slow Progress: Construction is behind schedule, with only 1.4 km of The Line expected to be completed by 2030.
Workplace Misconduct: Reports of toxic culture and unethical leadership, including neglect of worker safety.
Surveillance Concerns: Critics worry about the project’s use of real-time monitoring, raising privacy concerns.
Cost Overruns: The project’s budget has ballooned from $500 billion to $1.5 trillion, leading to scaled-down plans.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Deendayal Upadhyaya
Why in the News?
September 25 marks the 108th birth anniversary of Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya, one of the most influential thinkers of India’s right-wing movement.
AboutPandit Deendayal Upadhyaya (1916-1968)
Details
Born
• September 25, 1916 in Mathura, Uttar Pradesh
• Antyodaya Diwas is observed on this day since 2014.
Affiliations
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS)
Political Role
• One of the key leaders of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS)
• Served as President of BJS
Key Contributions
• Founder of the Integral Humanism philosophy
• Introduced the concept of Antyodaya for the upliftment of the poorest
• Promoted self-reliance (Swadeshi) and decentralization of power
Doctrine of ‘Antyodaya’
• Antyodaya means “upliftment of the last person in society.”
• It focuses on improving the living conditions of the poorest and most marginalized sections of society.
• Upadhyaya believed that true development can only be measured by the welfare of the weakest sections, promoting policies aimed at economic, social, and educational inclusion of these groups.
Legacy
• Antyodaya Anna Yojana and Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana inspired by his ideas
• In 2015, NRLM was renamed Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-NRLM.
Death
February 11, 1968, under mysterious circumstances in Mughalsarai, Uttar Pradesh
