Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on India’s Gross Domestic Product  (2021), and India from realizing its potential GDP (2020).

An economy grows through two key factors: supply (production of goods and services) and demand (spending on these goods and services). Among demand sources, investment is crucial as it creates a multiplier effect, boosting jobs and income. Consumption follows growth but cannot drive it alone, as sustainable expansion requires strong investment and production.

Today’s editorial talks about India’s GDP growth factors based on demand and supply. This content would help in GS Paper 3 mains Paper.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

An economy’s growth is like navigating two interconnected boats—one representing the supply or production of goods and services.

Why is economic growth dependent on two factors?

• Balanced Growth Requires Both Supply & Demand: Economic growth happens when goods and services are produced (supply) and purchased (demand) in a balanced manner.
  • Example: A country increasing factory production (supply) must also have enough consumers to buy the products (demand), ensuring sustainable growth.

• Mismatch Leads to Economic Problems

• • If demand > supply, inflation rises due to excessive spending with limited goods.
  • If supply > demand, businesses suffer from unsold stock, leading to job losses.
  • Example: Post-pandemic, supply chain disruptions led to high demand but low supply, causing inflation.
• Investment Drives Long-Term Growth: Investment in infrastructure, industries, and technology increases production capacity (supply) while also creating jobs, which boosts spending power (demand).
  • Example: China’s high investment in infrastructure and manufacturing led to rapid economic growth by expanding both supply and demand.
• Government Policies Impact Both Sides: Fiscal and monetary policies help balance supply-side growth (e.g., industrial incentives) and demand-side expansion (e.g., tax cuts or subsidies).
  • Example: India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme boosts manufacturing (supply), while government social schemes increase purchasing power (demand).
• Exports and Imports Affect Domestic Growth: A strong export sector increases supply, bringing foreign exchange, while controlled imports ensure domestic industries remain competitive.
  • Example: India’s IT exports generate revenue (supply), while consumer imports like electronics influence domestic demand.

What role does investment play in economic growth?

• Boosts Production Capacity: Investment in factories, infrastructure, and technology increases the ability to produce goods and services, leading to higher GDP. Example: China’s heavy investment in manufacturing and infrastructure helped it become the world’s largest exporter.
• Creates Employment Opportunities: New industries and infrastructure projects generate jobs, increasing income and overall demand in the economy. Example: India’s road and metro projects have created millions of direct and indirect jobs, boosting economic activity.
• Multiplier Effect on Demand & GDP: Investment leads to increased income, which in turn increases consumption and demand, further driving growth. Example: A ₹100 investment in building highways can create ₹125 in overall economic output due to increased business activities along the route.
• Encourages Private Sector Confidence: When the government invests in key sectors, it builds confidence among private businesses to invest further. Example: India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for electronics manufacturing has attracted global tech firms to set up production units.
• Leads to Technological and Industrial Development: Investments in research, innovation, and new industries enhance productivity and global competitiveness. Example: South Korea’s investment in R&D and technology made it a leader in electronics and automobile industries.

How have India and China experienced changes in per capita income?

• Similar Per Capita Incomes in the Early 1990s: In the early 1990s, India and China had nearly equal per capita incomes, with both countries being 1.5% of the U.S. average. Example: In 1992, both nations were considered low-income economies with similar economic structures.
• China’s Investment-Led Growth Model: China prioritized high investment rates, focusing on infrastructure, state-owned enterprises, and manufacturing. Example: In 1992, China’s investment rate was 39.1% of GDP, much higher than India’s 27.4%.
• Diverging Growth Post-2000s: India’s investment rate rose to 35.8% in 2007, almost matching China’s, but declined after 2012 due to policy uncertainty and global economic slowdown.Example: By 2013, China’s investment rate increased to 44.5%, while India’s fell to 31.3%.
• China’s Faster Rise in Per Capita Income: By 2023, China’s per capita income was 5 times India’s in nominal terms and 2.4 times higher in purchasing power parity (PPP). Example: As a percentage of U.S. per capita income in 2023: China: 15%, India: 3%.
• India’s Consumption-Driven Growth Model: India’s economic growth has been mainly driven by domestic consumption, while China maintained higher investment levels. Example: In 2023, consumption was 60.3% of India’s GDP, compared to 39.1% in China.
• Long-Term Impact on Growth and Inequality: India’s lower investment and trade deficits have led to slower per capita income growth, affecting job creation and economic equality. Example: China’s investment rate in 2023 was 41.3%, whereas India’s was only 30.8%, limiting economic expansion.

Way forward: 

• Enhancing Investment-Led Growth: India should focus on increasing capital formation by boosting infrastructure, industrial productivity, and R&D investments. Strengthening public-private partnerships (PPPs) and expanding the PLI scheme to emerging sectors can accelerate long-term economic growth.
• Balancing Consumption and Supply-Side Expansion: While consumption remains a key driver, policies should encourage domestic manufacturing and export competitiveness to reduce reliance on imports. Strengthening skill development and labour market reforms will enhance productivity and job creation.

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