Mentor’s Comment: Delimitation means fixing or re-fixing the boundaries of election constituencies. This is done by the Delimitation Commission, but only after a Census is held. According to Article 82 of the Constitution, after each Census, the number of Lok Sabha seats should be adjusted to match the population growth. However, the current strength of the Lok Sabha is based on the 1971 Census, when India’s population was about 54.79 crore. As of March 2025, this number is estimated to have increased to 141 crore. Despite this massive population growth over the last 50 years, the number of Lok Sabha seats has remained the same, as the seat count was frozen based on the 1971 population through a constitutional amendment until 2026.

Today’s editorial talks about the problems and discussions around changing the number of Lok Sabha seats based on the next Census. This topic is useful for GS Paper 2 in the UPSC Mains exam.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

The issue of changing the number of Lok Sabha seats based on the upcoming Census is being widely discussed across the country.

What is the primary difference between the readjustment of Lok Sabha seats and delimitation?

Why was the number of Lok Sabha seats frozen based on the 1971 Census figures until 2026?

• Promote Population Control: The freeze aimed to incentivize States to control population growth. Eg: Kerala and Tamil Nadu implemented successful family planning programs, and the freeze ensured they weren’t penalized for lower population growth.
• Prevent Disproportionate Political Power: If seats were allocated purely on population, high-growth States would dominate Parliament. Eg: Uttar Pradesh, with population increasing from 8.38 crore (1971) to 24.1 crore (2025), could demand up to 240 seats, disrupting national balance.
• Maintain Inter-State Equity: The goal was to maintain fair representation for all States despite demographic differences. Eg: Southern States like Kerala (68% population rise) would have lost out to northern States with over 200% increase.
• Allow Time for Demographic Stabilization: It provided time for States with high fertility rates to stabilize their population before readjustment. Eg: Bihar’s population grew from 4.21 crore (1971) to 13.1 crore (2025), needing time to catch up on family planning efforts.
• Backed by Constitutional Amendments: The 42nd (1976) and 84th (2001) Amendments legally froze the seat distribution until after the 2026 Census, reflecting national consensus. Eg: Article 82 was amended to delay readjustment, reinforcing the political importance of stability and fairness.

Which States are likely to gain the most seats if readjustment is done strictly based on population growth?

• High Population Growth in Northern States: States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have witnessed exponential population growth since 1971, leading to a higher claim for more seats if readjustment is done purely on population figures. Eg: Uttar Pradesh grew from 8.38 crore (1971) to 24.1 crore (2025) and may get up to 240 seats, up from the current 80.
• Large Base and Sustained Growth in Central India: States such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, with relatively higher growth rates, are also poised to gain significantly in seat allocation. Eg: Madhya Pradesh, with its growing population and current 29 seats, could see a proportional jump in its representation.
• Heavily Populated but Slower-Control States Like West Bengal and Maharashtra: These States have large populations and moderately high growth rates, placing them in the category of beneficiaries in seat readjustment. Eg: Maharashtra, with a population exceeding 12 crore, may go beyond its present 48 seats to possibly 60 or more.

Which States fear losing political influence as a result?

• Southern States with Successful Population Control: States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh fear marginalisation because they effectively implemented family planning and now risk being underrepresented in Parliament. Eg: Kerala grew only 68% since 1971 and may gain very few seats (from 20 to 34), while Uttar Pradesh could triple its seats.
• Concern over Disproportionate Power Shift to the North: Southern leaders worry that population-based seat allocation would reward States with poor governance on population control and shift national decision-making disproportionately northward.

When was the last Lok Sabha seat readjustment, and when is the next one due?

• Last Readjustment – Based on 1971 Census: The last readjustment of Lok Sabha seats was done based on the 1971 Census figures. Eg: The number of seats was fixed at 543 after the 1971 population was taken into account (approx. 54.8 crore).
• Freeze Imposed Until 2026: The 42nd and 84th Constitutional Amendments froze the number of Lok Sabha seats based on the 1971 data, to encourage population control across States. Eg: This freeze was intended to avoid penalizing States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu which successfully limited population growth.
• Next Readjustment Due After 2026: The next readjustment is constitutionally mandated to happen after the first Census conducted post-2026, which is expected to be the 2031 Census. Eg: If readjusted based on estimated 2025 population (approx. 141 crore), total seats may rise to around 800–912.

Way forward: 

• Balanced Formula Beyond Population Alone: Adopt a hybrid model that considers not only population but also parameters like the human development index (HDI), population control efforts, and geographical diversity to ensure fairness. Eg: Southern States like Tamil Nadu, despite lower population growth, could be rewarded for their social indicators and governance.
• Constitutional and Political Consensus Building: Initiate bipartisan discussions and possibly form a national commission to recommend a fair readjustment mechanism, preserving federal balance and cooperative federalism. Eg: Ensuring that both high-growth and low-growth States feel represented will prevent regional discontent and maintain national unity.

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