Why in the news? 

Since 1989, July 11 has been designated as World Population Day, marking the global population surpassing the five billion mark.

About Malthus Theory of Population

• Thomas Malthus’ Theory of Population, proposed in 1798, posited that population growth would outpace food production, leading to widespread famine and poverty.
• He believed population grows exponentially while food production increases linearly. However, advancements in agriculture and technology have prevented the catastrophic outcomes he predicted.

Present Scenario

• Population Growth and Food Production: Despite significant population growth, currently estimated at 8.1 billion globally, advancements in technology and agriculture have enabled food production to keep pace. This disproves Malthus’ prediction of widespread famine due to population outstripping food supply.
• India’s Demographics: India, the most populous nation with 1.44 billion people, has seen its annual population growth rate fall below 1%, with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2, just below the replacement level. Economic growth has surged, with per capita GDP increasing sixfold from $400 to $2,400 over the past 27 years.
• Poverty Reduction and Challenges: The percentage of Indians living below the poverty line has decreased from 43% to 11%. However, significant disparities persist, with certain states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand accounting for 83% of the nation’s poverty. Climate change remains a critical challenge, disproportionately affecting poorer populations.

Changes in India

• Population : Population Growth has Increased from 1 billion to 1.44 billion (44% increase). The Annual population growth rate decreased from nearly 2% to below 1%. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 3.4 to 2, below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Economic Indicators: Per Capita GDP has rose sixfold from $400 to $2,400, signifying substantial economic growth. And percentage of people living below the multi-dimensional poverty line decreased from 43% to 11%.
• Life Expectancy: Increased from 61 years to 70 years, indicating improvements in healthcare and living standards.

Impact of Climate Change on Population

• Increased Vulnerability of the Poor: Climate change disproportionately affects poorer populations in developing countries like India. Inadequate housing, infrastructure, and resources make these communities more susceptible to the adverse effects of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
• Agricultural Disruption: Unpredictable weather patterns and extreme climate conditions disrupt agricultural productivity, leading to food insecurity. This particularly impacts rural populations who depend on farming for their livelihoods, exacerbating poverty and malnutrition.
• Migration and Displacement: Climate change-induced events, such as rising sea levels and severe weather, force people to migrate from their homes. This internal displacement puts additional strain on urban areas and exacerbates existing social and economic challenges, leading to overcrowding and increased competition for resources.

Agenda of Global South Population 

• Economic Growth and Poverty Eradication: Developing nations in the Global South prioritize economic growth to reduce poverty and improve living standards. The focus is on sustainable development, ensuring that economic progress is not compromised while addressing the immediate needs of their populations. India’s aim to achieve zero poverty within the next decade exemplifies this priority.
• Sustainable Development and Climate Responsibility: The Global South advocates for a balanced approach to climate change, emphasizing the need for developed countries (with higher historical emissions) to take greater responsibility. The G-20 New Delhi Declaration (2023) highlights the importance of the circular economy, resource efficiency, and extended producer responsibility in achieving sustainable development without hindering economic growth.

A Pathway for the Most Populous Nation (Way Forward) 

• Balancing Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: India must continue prioritizing economic growth to alleviate poverty and improve living standards while integrating sustainable practices. Emphasizing circular economy principles, resource efficiency, and extended producer responsibility can help decouple economic growth from environmental degradation.
• Reducing Poverty and Inequality: Targeted efforts to address regional disparities and uplift impoverished populations are crucial. Programs focusing on education, healthcare, and infrastructure development, particularly in states with high poverty levels like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand, are essential to ensure inclusive growth.
• Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: India should implement strategies to mitigate climate change impacts, such as investing in renewable energy, enhancing disaster resilience, and promoting sustainable agriculture. While striving for net-zero emissions by 2070, India must ensure that climate actions do not compromise its economic growth and poverty eradication goals.

Mains PYQ: 

Q Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the mains cause of population increase in India. (UPSC IAS/2015)

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