What’s the news?

• In a recent ASEAN meeting, Indonesia, under the leadership of President Joko Widodo, successfully injected fresh perspectives into long-standing ASEAN stances.

Central idea

• The recent ASEAN meet in Jakarta, under Indonesia’s chairmanship, showcased the country’s adept handling of regional dynamics and its diplomatic finesse. With the president set to step down in 2024, this summit marked a high point in his leadership. Notably, eight ASEAN nations convened, with Myanmar excluded at the political level and Thailand undergoing a governmental transition.

Indonesia’s nuanced approach towards the Indo-Pacific

• Expanding the Arc of Prosperity: President Joko Widodo emphasized the need to expand the arc of prosperity within ASEAN. This highlighted Indonesia’s commitment to regional development and recognized the growing economic importance of the Indo-Pacific.
• ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum (AIPF): Indonesia’s leadership resulted in the creation of the AIPF. This forum brought together government leaders from ASEAN countries, partner nations, and prominent figures from the business sector to discuss peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Functional Approach: Indonesia’s approach to the Indo-Pacific was notable for its functional orientation. It emphasized cooperation and collaboration over strategic rivalry, aligning with the Quad’s cooperative outlook.
• Balancing Act with China: While Indonesia’s stance did not explicitly confront China, the absence of China from the AIPF was noticeable. This raises questions about how Indonesia aims to balance its Indo-Pacific approach with its relationship with China.
• Inclusive Dialogue: Indonesia’s strategy sought to position ASEAN as a key player in shaping the Indo-Pacific’s future. It underscored the importance of inclusive dialogue and cooperation for regional stability and prosperity.
• Regional Stability and Prosperity: Indonesia’s approach acknowledges that regional stability and prosperity are best achieved through collaboration and engagement rather than through overt confrontation or rivalry.

Myanmar’s Conundrum

• Exclusion from Political Level: Myanmar’s absence from the political level at the recent ASEAN summit was consistent with the organization’s practice, highlighting the ongoing internal turmoil since the military coup in February 2021.
• Indonesia’s Pragmatic Approach: Indonesia, under its ASEAN Chairmanship, demonstrated a pragmatic stance toward the Myanmar issue, recognizing the limitations of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) framework intended for dialogue and resolution in Myanmar.
• Office of Special Envoy: Indonesia took a distinctive approach by establishing an office of the special envoy rather than appointing an individual special envoy, allowing for discreet engagement with Myanmar, neighboring nations, India, and ASEAN members.
• Facilitating Dialogue: The 5PC, once seen as a binding decision, is now considered a facilitating initiative, emphasizing Indonesia’s and ASEAN’s acknowledgment of the complexity of the Myanmar situation. This initiative aims to promote dialogue among various segments within Myanmar.
• Hosting of the ASEAN Summit: Myanmar’s exclusion from hosting the 2026 ASEAN summit highlighted the growing disconnect between the nation and the regional bloc. Historically, ASEAN used hosting privileges as leverage to address issues within member states, but their effectiveness in the current context remains uncertain.

China’s Challenge

• Primary Challenge for ASEAN: China poses the foremost challenge to ASEAN, especially concerning the looming big-power rivalry in the region. The call for peace and prosperity in the region is essentially a plea to prevent the United States and China from displaying their rivalry within ASEAN.
• Slow Progress on the Code of Conduct: Progress on the South China Sea (SCS) code of conduct has been sluggish. A significant point of contention is the differing interpretations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which creates obstacles to establishing a binding code of conduct.
• China’s Standard Map: China’s introduction of a new standard map that claims the territories of several countries, including those in the South China Sea, has added complexity to the situation. Notably, countries like India, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia raised their concerns about this map in bilateral discussions with China.
• Indonesia’s Cautious Approach: Indonesia, as the host of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit (EAS), maintained a cautious approach to the issue of China’s standard map during the summit, where the Chinese Premier was in attendance.
• Contradictions in Progress: The emphasis on UNCLOS and disputes over China’s map contradict the progress that ASEAN claims to have made on the code of conduct. The main purpose of the code is to govern the South China Sea as an international waterway, not as China’s domestic sea, as implied by the map.

Challenges to ASEAN Unity

• Myanmar’s Exclusion: A prominent challenge to ASEAN unity is the exclusion of Myanmar from political-level participation in the recent ASEAN summit. This exclusion stems from the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar, triggered by the military coup in February 2021.
• Thailand’s Transition: Thailand, another ASEAN member, is facing challenges due to its transitional government formed after an election. Consequently, it had official-level representation at the summit, raising concerns about the level of representation within ASEAN during crucial meetings.

India in the context of the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum (AIPF)

• Participation in AIPF: India, along with the US, UK, Canada, and Australia, conducted side events at the AIPF. This suggests that India is actively engaged in discussions at the forum.
• Concerns Over China’s New Map: Several countries, including India, raised bilateral concerns with China regarding its new standard map. This map claims territories that other countries consider their own, causing diplomatic tensions.
• Interest in the South China Sea: India has a vested interest in the South China Sea due to its trade and strategic considerations. India has been monitoring developments in the region, including China’s territorial claims and their impact on freedom of navigation.

Why India Needs ASEAN?

• Significant Trade & Commercial Relations: ASEAN is a major destination for India’s service sectors and a vital source of foreign investments.
• Development of North East India: ASEAN provides an alternate route for India’s access to North Eastern India, facilitating development and strategic interests.
• Countering Chinese Expansion: Strengthening ties with ASEAN countries helps India counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Maritime Freedom: Collaboration with ASEAN ensures a free and peaceful Indo-Pacific region based on a rules-based order.
• Support for Indian Initiatives: ASEAN’s support is crucial for India’s success in regional policies and initiatives.
• Emerging Market: India benefits from ASEAN’s agricultural and industrial products, while ASEAN relies on India’s demographic dividend.
• Global Reforms: ASEAN’s global influence aligns with India’s vision for reforms in international forums.
• Elevating India’s Global Status: Partnership with ASEAN enhances India’s geopolitical standing.

Strengthening ASEAN’s Position

• ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP): ASEAN is actively working to bolster its position by embracing the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP). This strategic framework emphasizes ASEAN’s central role in the Indo-Pacific region, aiming to reinforce its influence and relevance.
• Enhanced Coast Guard Coordination: ASEAN is prioritizing improved coordination among its coast guards. This approach signifies a commitment to safeguarding maritime security and effectively managing potential conflicts in the region’s waters.
• Joint Defense Exercises: ASEAN is engaging in joint defense exercises as part of its efforts to strengthen its position. These exercises are viewed as a robust response to the sluggish progress on the South China Sea (SCS) code of conduct, with the goal of enhancing regional security.
• Addressing Code of Conduct Challenges: The slow progress on the South China Sea code of conduct is a significant concern for ASEAN. To tackle this issue, ASEAN is promoting the AOIP and intensifying security cooperation, reflecting its determination to address the challenges related to the code of conduct.

• Continuity through Troika Leadership: In a bid to maintain continuity and unity within ASEAN, Indonesia has formed a troika with the upcoming chairs, Laos and Malaysia. This arrangement aims to provide guidance and ensure ASEAN’s stability and coherence in the face of ongoing challenges and transitions.

Conclusion

• Indonesia’s leadership during the ASEAN summit deserves commendation for maintaining stability amidst the region’s complex challenges. In a rapidly changing world, ASEAN’s stability remains of paramount importance. Indonesia’s collaboration with the upcoming chairs, Laos and Malaysia, signals continuity in charting ASEAN’s course forward.

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