Central Idea

Azerbaijan announced the continuation of military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh for the second consecutive day, describing it as “anti-terror” operations.
The government asserts that these operations will persist until ethnic-Armenian separatists’ surrender.

Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

Persistent Tensions: The South Caucasus region has experienced prolonged tensions over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
Lachin Corridor Blockade: Over the past nine months, Azerbaijan has effectively imposed a blockade on the Lachin Corridor, the sole route from Armenia into Nagorno-Karabakh.

Historical Conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Ceasefire in 1994: A ceasefire was established in 1994 after significant casualties and displacement occurred.
Frequent Accusations: Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.

Global Diplomacy: The clashes have spurred diplomatic efforts to prevent a new outbreak of a long-standing conflict between Christian-majority Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
Energy Pipelines: Pipelines transporting Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to global markets pass near Nagorno-Karabakh.
Regional Instability: The conflict raises concerns about instability in the South Caucasus, a vital corridor for pipelines facilitating the transport of oil and gas to international markets.

Asymmetric Relations: India maintains a friendship and cooperation treaty with Armenia (signed in 1995), which restricts India from providing military or any other assistance to Azerbaijan.
Investments in Azerbaijan: Indian companies, such as ONGC/OVL and GAIL, have made investments in oilfield projects and LNG exploration in Azerbaijan.
Connectivity Potential: Azerbaijan lies on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), linking India to Russia via Central Asia. It also offers connectivity to Turkey through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars rail link.
Kashmir Dynamics: While Armenia unequivocally supports India’s stance on the Kashmir issue, Azerbaijan opposes it and aligns with Pakistan’s narrative.
India’s South Caucasus Policy: India lacks a publicly articulated policy for the South Caucasus, and the region remains on the periphery of its foreign policy focus.

Conflict of Principles: The conflict centers on two international principles: territorial integrity, advocated by Azerbaijan, and the right to self-determination, supported by Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.
India’s Dilemma: India faces a dilemma as it cannot openly endorse Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, considering Azerbaijan’s disregard for India’s territorial integrity in Jammu and Kashmir.
Avoiding Misuse: However, India must be cautious not to publicly support Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination, as it could have implications for India’s territorial integrity and be exploited by adversaries like Pakistan.