India has always been aware of the China-Pak collusion and their mutual support to each others’ actions. But the underlying basis has been changing now. It is no longer Pakistan seeking Chinese support in J&K as much as it is the other way around.

Preparedness for a two-front war

• The debate regarding India’s capability to fight a war in which there is full collusion between China and Pakistan has generally remained inconclusive.
• Most detractors of the belief regarding China’s military-operational support to Pakistan, have leaned on the argument that China will adopt a policy to suit its interests.
• Both in 1965 and 1971, China made some promises to Pakistan but chose to stay away.
• Of course, that was during the Cold War — a completely different international strategic environment.

China-Pakistan collection action in Kashmir

• Pakistan increased its proxy campaign in J&K almost in sync with two China-related trends.
• First, enhanced PLA assertiveness in Eastern Ladakh.
• Second, the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• A progressively altering Chinese attitude towards the Kashmir issue started to take shape as early as 2008-09, with issuing stapled visas to Indians residing in J&K and denial of a visa to the Northern Army Commander were signs of it.
• This support was also witnessed on issues like the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Pakistan’s involvement in global terrorism and the abrogation of Article 370.

Pincer approach in Ladakh

• It is no longer Pakistan seeking Chinese support for its adventurism as much as it is the other way around.
• The mutuality of interests has increased and military coordination has become a larger part of the overall strategy.
• China may force further escalation this season depending upon how the world responds to its expansionism.
• China could also adopt a posture which prepares it, along with Pakistan, towards a future “pincer approach” in Ladakh.
• Along with Ladakh — Arunachal, Sikkim and the Central Sector are very part of the expanded collusive strategy.
• But it is Ladakh where the effect is intended most and it is there that the pincer approach may prove more challenging for India.

Suggestions for India

• Assuming that confrontation with the Sino-Pak combine is inevitable now or later, one of the ways for India to offset this is to project sufficient capability.
• The diplomatic and military domains have to play this out effectively.
• India cannot be seen to be alone or militarily weak.
• It has tremendous support internationally which must translate into a higher level of strategic support.
• Militarily, Pakistan should never be able to perceive that it will be allowed to fight as per choice and conceived strategy.
• China’s success or failure in such adventurism will set the course of its future strategy against its multiple adversaries.
• That is the psyche which India must exploit to prevent escalation and win this and impending standoffs without fighting.
• This needs a rapid and all-out national effort with the highest priority accorded to it, including budgeting.

Conclusion

India cannot afford to focus only on the northern borders. A firm and full strategy to deal with Pakistan in all contingencies has now become imperative.

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