Context

• America’s national security strategy issued by the Joe Biden Administration last week and the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Congress this week promise to reshape the geopolitics of Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Historical background of USA-CHINA

• Context of World War II: Asia has seen multiple phases in the US-China relationship. In the second half of the 19th century, American missionaries began to arrive in China and began to generate empathy for the nation. During World War II, Washington backed Chinese nationalists in their fight against Japanese occupation.
• US efforts to isolation China: The US tried to isolate China from 1949 when the communists prevailed over the nationalists.
• Cooperation to counter Soviet: The 1970’s saw the US and communist China come together to counter the Soviet Union.
• Multiple Economic engagement: The 1980s saw the beginning of an economic engagement that turned into a huge commercial and technological partnership from the 1990s.

What is the USA’s assumption and China’s ambition?

• China as responsible stakeholder: The US establishment dismissed the idea of China as potential threat and bet that Beijing could become a “responsible stakeholder” in the world order.
• Democratization of Chinese society is inevitable: America also believed that China’s growing economic prosperity would inevitably lead to greater democratisation of its society.
• Visible decline of west: China, however, has steadily moved in the other direction, especially under Xi, who has convinced himself that the West is in terminal decline.
• China’s ambition to change the world order: Xi is determined to seize this moment to reshape the Asian as well as the global order to suit Chinese interests. At the same time, China has become increasingly repressive at home.
• Explicit expression of ambition: Xi made no effort to hide China’s new geopolitical ambition nor has he been defensive about his authoritarian rule. This, in turn, bestirred the US into rethinking its China policy in the second decade of the 21st century.

How China is asserting itself?

• Asserting own version of Global order: Beijing, argues that recent history points to the superiority of the Chinese system over the Western one. And it offers its own versions of a global order – economic, political and social. Since the end of the Cold War, ideological arguments had receded into the background but are now back in significant play.
• China offering model Economic Globalization: China continues to sing praises of the model of economic globalisation that has facilitated Beijing’s rise over the last four decades. But under Xi, China has emphasised the importance of self-reliance in the name of a “dual circulation strategy”.
• Leveraging world’s dependence for strategic gain: At the same time, Beijing has sought to enhance the world’s dependence on its economy and leverage it for strategic benefit. The profound political backlash against trade and economic cooperation with China in the US led to the questioning of economic globalisation in the Trump years.
• China building the powerful military: As China became a richer country, it also focused on building a powerful army. Using both the instruments of hard power, China under Xi has actively sought to undermine US alliances in Asia and mount pressure on American forward military presence in Asia.

How USA’s policy is changing towards China?

• Structured policy of rivalry: The traditional soft attitude to China yielded to a more confrontational approach during the Donald Trump presidency. Joe Biden has developed that into a more structured policy of competing with China.
• Combine challenge of China and Russia: The National Security Strategy of the Trump administration postulated the return of great power rivalry and the need to respond to the challenges presented by Russia and China. Biden’s NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY builds on that proposition and identifies China as the more demanding challenge than Russia, despite Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine.
• China is more capable than Russia: In his foreword to the National security strategy, Biden says “Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown.” He names China, on the other hand, as “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective”. While the European challenge is real, the Biden Administration now sees the Indo-Pacific as the principal strategic theatre.
• Projecting China as autocracy against the democracy: The US has sought to locate the conflict with China (and Russia) as a fundamental struggle between “democracies and autocracies”. Recognising the limited enthusiasm for the framing in Asia, the National security strategy now talks of broadening the coalition to include countries that may not be democratic. Beijing, on the other hand, argues that recent history points to the superiority of the Chinese system over the Western one.
• Building the bilateral alliances: The US is now pushing back. The principal instrument in the US response has been rebuilding the traditional bilateral alliances with Japan and Australia as well as constructing new partnerships with countries like India and developing new regional coalitions.

India’s role in shaping the world order

• Convergence of National interest wit USA: Today, Indian and American policies are converging. For both Delhi and Washington, Beijing presents the main national challenges.
• Reducing economic dependence on China: On the economic and technological front, both India and the US are trying to reduce their exposure to China.
• Keeping independent foreign policy: On the geopolitical front, a US plan to look beyond formal alliances suits Delhi, which is wedded to an independent foreign policy.
• Opportunity for cooperation: It is never easy to translate abstract convergence into concrete policies. The current churn in Asia provides Delhi and Washington with a historic opportunity to build on the new convergences in the areas of trade, technology, and geopolitics.

 Conclusion

• changing world order will have short term repercussion on economic front for developing country like India. India has a great opportunity to be the rule maker of new global order rather than just a rule follower. World order of 21^st century will revolve around the fateful triangle of India, China and USA.

Mains Question

Q.Why the present world order is challenged by China? What role India can play as rule maker of new World order?

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