Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Demographic Dividend
Mains level: Read the attached story
Central Idea: Pew Survey Report
- The current median age in India is 28, compared to China’s 39, indicating India’s demographic advantage will persist until the end of the century.
- China’s youth population is declining, and the aging population is rising, leading to concerns about employment and stability.
Demographic Dividend |
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| Definition | Economic growth potential results from a favourable demographic structure, particularly a large working-age population relative to the dependent population (children and elderly). |
| Age structure | “Bulge” in the working-age population due to declining fertility rates and improved life expectancy. |
| Economic benefits | Increased productivity, higher savings, and greater economic output. |
| Increased consumption | Rise in disposable income, stimulating consumer spending and demand. |
| Savings and investments | Opportunity for higher savings and productive investments. |
| Window of opportunity | Time-limited period to harness the potential of the young workforce. |
| Challenges and prerequisites | Effective policies and investments in education, skill development, healthcare, job creation, and infrastructure. |
Demographic Advantage for India
The current median age of 28 in India signifies a young population, which brings several advantages:
- Demographic advantage: A young population contributes to economic growth and development.
- Productive workforce: With a large working-age population, India has the potential for a productive workforce.
- Long-term economic growth: The young population offers a demographic dividend for sustained economic growth with investments in education, skills, and job creation.
- Market potential: The young population represents a significant consumer market, stimulating economic activity.
- Addressing societal challenges: Opportunities arise to address education, healthcare, and social welfare needs among the youth.
India’s Edge over China
(1) Job Market
- Graduates facing difficulty finding employment: A large number of college and university graduates in China struggle to secure jobs, facing job market challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Impact of the pandemic on employment: COVID-19 lockdowns and layoffs in key sectors have negatively affected China’s job market, particularly for the “post-’00s” generation who grew up during rapid economic growth.
(2) Urban Joblessness
- Rising joblessness among young urbanites: One out of every five young urbanites in China is without work, leading to a growing problem of joblessness.
- Official jobless rate for urban youth: China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a 19.9% jobless rate for urban youth aged 16 to 24 in July, the highest since the release of youth employment data in 2018.
Factors Contributing to China’s job market challenges
- Supply-demand contradiction: China’s economic growth decline and the impact of COVID-19 have created a supply-demand contradiction in the job market.
- Issues with the education sector: Some argue that the problem lies within China’s education sector, and finding jobs for educated youth has become a perennial crisis.
- Shifting focus to qualitative growth: Despite China’s focus shifting from quantitative to qualitative growth, the challenge of employment for educated youth persists.
Where does India stand?
- Challenges for school leavers and graduates: India faces challenges with school leavers, liberal arts graduates, and engineers from low-grade colleges who struggle to find employment.
- Shortage of specific skilled personnel: While facing a surplus of certain graduates, India experiences a shortage of skilled workers in various fields, such as plumbing, electrical work, and artisanal crafts.
Issues in India’s Skilling Efforts
- Inadequacies in skill development initiatives: Entities like the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) have not delivered effective skilling programs, focusing on short courses rather than comprehensive skill acquisition.
- Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs): The potential of ITIs to address the skill gap has been hampered by resistance from state governments and the failure of partnerships with industrial enterprises.
- Private Skilling institutes: Private Skilling institutes, often in the informal sector, have emerged to fill some of the gaps left by government initiatives.
NEP and Vocational Training in India
- Vocational segmentation in NEP 2020: NEP 2020 introduces vocational training from 6th to 8th grade to improve students’ skills in specific fields.
- Need for continued vocational training: To be effective, vocational segmentation should continue at the secondary level, with dedicated schools focused on producing skilled artisans and specialists.
- Challenges in vocational education: Similar to China, vocational education in India faces challenges in attracting students compared to traditional academic paths.
Way forward
- Emulating Germany’s model: Germany’s emphasis on respecting and valuing vocational specializations can serve as a model for India.
- Success of vocational education in other countries: Several countries, including Singapore and to some extent, China, have successfully implemented vocational education systems.
- Addressing inequalities in education: In China, challenges remain in providing quality education for rural students, which can limit their access to better job opportunities.
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