Introduction

The Arakan Army captured Paletwa in the Chin State, near Bangladesh and India. This has cast aspersions about the development of key Indian projects in Myanmar.

Myanmar Coup: A quick recap

Myanmar’s military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021.
The military expected resistance to subside quickly. After three years, opposition to the military regime is growing.

Complex Dynamics: The capture of Paletwa has triggered a complex dynamic between the Chin and Arakan ethnic groups.
Ethnic Majority: Majority of Paletwa’s residents belong to the Chin ethnic community.
Historical Claims: Some in the Rakhine State argue that Paletwa historically belonged to the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule.
Inter–Ethnic Solidarity: Inter-ethnic solidarity among EAOs is essential for an effective fight against the military.
Challenge of Compromise: Finding an inter-ethnic compromise on settlements like Paletwa is challenging due to its strategic location.

Significance for Kaladan: The developments in Paletwa have implications for India’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) in Myanmar.
Addressing Challenges: The Kaladan project aims to address northeast India’s geo-economic and geo-political challenges.
Project Delays: Delays in project implementation were caused by rugged terrain, inadequate coordination, political instability, and security challenges.
Local Attitudes: Attitudes of local ethnic organizations must be considered for swift Kaladan project execution.
Local Interest: People in Mizoram and Chin State are interested in the project’s completion as it boosts economic activity.

Three Brotherhood Alliance: The Arakan Army is part of the Three Brotherhood alliance, believed to have Chinese support. This alliance aims to safeguard Chinese investments in Myanmar.
Reports of Chinese Support: Reports suggest that the Arakan Army receives funding and military equipment from China.
Concerns for India: Concerns exist in India about Beijing using armed groups to hinder India’s connectivity projects in Myanmar.
China’s Economic Presence: China has increased its economic presence along Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal coast.
Infrastructure Initiatives: Operationalized pipelines and agreements for a deep-sea port and special economic zone are part of China’s initiatives in Myanmar.

India, as a liberal democracy, faces scrutiny regarding the impact of its external engagement on sectarian/identity-based violence in the neighborhood.
Scaling up humanitarian and development assistance while collaborating with ethnic organizations is essential.