Central Idea

Finland has become the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its decision to join the alliance should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence. The accession of Finland into NATO is a rational choice that may provide additional security guarantees and help to defend against possible aggression from Russia.

Historical context of Finland-Russia relations

The relationship between Finland and Russia has been a combination of struggle and compromise, dating back nearly 200 years.
In 1809, the Russian Tsar Alexander I acquired Finland and made it an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian empire.
Between the two world wars, the Finns felt less threatened by Germany than by Russia.

31st NATO member: Finland has become the 31st member of NATO, triggering possible countermeasures from Russia.
Independent choice: The decision to join NATO is seen as an independent choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Security guarantee: Finland’s accession to NATO is a rational choice to receive additional security guarantees from the alliance. Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty binds the members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the alliance.

Defence against possible aggression: Even prior to its membership in NATO, Finland had been preparing to defend itself against possible aggression.
The Finnish system of conscription has generated sufficient resources for the army, navy, and air force to act effectively in a war situation.

Real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region: Finland has maintained a small but capable armed force that is well-trained and resilient, and its inclusion in NATO adds real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region.
High north is commercial attraction: As the Arctic ice cap melts amidst global warming, the high north has become attractive commercially and contested geopolitically.
India is an observer of the Arctic Council: India is an observer of the Arctic Council that seeks to promote wide-ranging cooperation in the polar north.
China raising profile in the Arctic: The militarisation of the high north appears inevitable as Finland and Sweden turn from neutrals to Western allies and China raises its profile in the Arctic in partnership with Russia.
Global governance: This might make global governance of the Arctic region increasingly problematic

Both NATO and Russia should exercise cautious behavior vis-à-vis each other to avoid further escalation of tensions.
Finland’s newly elected centre-right government should engage in bilateral dialogue with Russia, trying to understand each other’s security concerns.
There should be at least some NATO members who would be willing to rely more on diplomatic tools and lower the temperatures.

The decision of Finland to join NATO is seen as a rational choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The accession of Finland into NATO should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence and could potentially persuade an adversary not to initiate a war. NATO and Russia should search for ways to lower the tensions and avoid implementing measures and imposing countermeasures.

Mains Question

Q. Finland has become the 31st member of NATO. In this light discuss the rationale behind this decision its implications.