Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

First Ice-Free day in the Arctic could come by 2030: Study

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: De-glaciation of Arctic

Why in the News?

A recent study suggests that the Arctic Ocean may experience its first ice-free day—where sea ice falls below one million square kilometres—by 2030, or even sooner.

Key Highlights of the Study

  • First Ice-Free Day Prediction: The study predicts that the Arctic Ocean could experience its first ice-free day (less than one million square kilometres of sea ice) by 2030, or even sooner, depending on climatic conditions.
  • Simulations and Models:
    • 11 different climate models were used to run 366 simulations from 2023 to 2100 to assess the future of Arctic sea ice.
    • Most simulations predict the ice-free day within 7 to 20 years, with some models suggesting it could happen as early as September 2027.
  • Conditions for Ice-Free Day: The occurrence of an ice-free day will depend on a combination of unusually warm seasons and stormy weather, which accelerates the melting of the sea ice.
  • Impact on Sea Ice: Once the first ice-free day occurs, it could be followed by an ice-free period lasting between 11 to 53 days, potentially leading to the first ice-free month.

Why does it matter?

  • Climate Change Acceleration: The loss of sea ice will amplify the Albedo effect, causing the Arctic region to absorb more sunlight and heat, which will accelerate global warming and trigger extreme weather events in mid-latitudes.
  • Rising Sea Levels: The loss of Arctic ice contributes to sea level rise, with potential long-term impacts on coastal populations and ecosystems, particularly if the Greenland ice sheet melts completely, which could raise sea levels by 6 meters.
  • Ecosystem and Species Impact: The melting of sea ice will threaten species that rely on the ice for habitat, such as polar bears, walruses, and reindeer, disrupting the Arctic food chain.
  • Human and Infrastructure Threats: Arctic communities and their infrastructure are at risk as the region warms at four times the global average, threatening the livelihoods of people living in these areas.

Back2Basics: Albedo Effect

arctic albedo

  • It refers to the measure of how much sunlight is reflected by a surface.
  • It is expressed as a percentage; a surface with a high albedo reflects more sunlight, while a surface with a low albedo absorbs more.
  • Light-colored surfaces like ice and snow have high albedo, reflecting most of the sunlight, whereas dark surfaces like oceans and forests have low albedo, absorbing more heat.

 

PYQ:

[2022] Discuss global warming and mention its effects on the global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997.

[2012] The increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air is slowly raising the temperature of the atmosphere because it absorbs:

(a) the water vapour of the air and retains its heat
(b) the ultraviolet part of the solar radiation
(c) all the solar radiations
(d) the infrared part of the solar radiation

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