Foreign Policy Watch: India-Bangladesh

How India needs to deal with the new Bangladesh?  

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Mains level: Implication of Military Coup on India Bangladesh relation

Why in the News?

India will require significant political and diplomatic acumen to navigate the fallout from Sheikh Hasina’s fall, which could destabilize and potentially reshape the geopolitics of the subcontinent.

Why Hasina’s fall was not a surprise?

  • Long-standing Discontent: Widespread protests against Sheikh Hasina’s government had been brewing over issues like a controversial quota system for government jobs, indicating significant public discontent.
  • Authoritarian Drift: Hasina’s government has been accused of suppressing opposition and civil society through measures like the Digital Security Act, which has been used to arrest critics and journalists.
  • Historical Context: Since gaining independence in 1971, Bangladesh has experienced several military coups, political assassinations, and periods of military rule, including the killing of Hasina’s father, Mujibur Rahman, in 1975.

Five Challenges Beyond 1971

  • Engagement with Opposition: Due to prevailing political uncertainity, India need to distance itself from Hasina and engage with her opponents to maintain credibility and influence in Bangladesh.
  • Managing Regional Rivalries: India needs to prepare for potential exploitation of the situation by Pakistan and China, which may seek to influence the new government against Indian interests.
  • Historical Narratives: India needs to navigate the complex historical narratives surrounding the 1971 liberation of Bangladesh, recognizing that many in Bangladesh do not share the same interpretation.
  • Economic Stability: Ensuring economic stabilization in Bangladesh will be crucial, requiring collaboration with regional partners to prevent extremism and maintain stability.
  • Recognition of Local Agency: India must acknowledge that Bangladesh has its own political dynamics and agency, which cannot be solely dictated by Indian interests or actions.

What India must prepare for now? (Way forward)

  • Diplomatic Strategy: India needs to develop a proactive diplomatic strategy to engage with the new government in Bangladesh while avoiding perceptions of interference.
  • Security Concerns: India must be vigilant about border security and the potential resurgence of anti-India activities, especially if the new government leans towards Pakistan or China.
  • Economic Engagement: Strengthening economic ties and leveraging people-to-people connections will be essential for maintaining a positive relationship with Bangladesh, regardless of political changes.
  • Learning from Past Experiences: India should draw lessons from its past experiences with political transitions in the region, such as in Afghanistan, to navigate the current situation effectively.
  • Collaborative Approach: Working with international partners, including the US and Gulf nations, will be important to address the challenges posed by the political shift in Bangladesh and to ensure regional stability.

Mains PYQ: 

Q Critically examine the compulsions which prompted India to play a decisive role in the emergence of Bangladesh. (2013)

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