Context

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine, has triggered a far more consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism.

Background

• Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.

Changing stand on nuclear weapons

• Debate in Japan: In an important statement last week, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
• One element of the debate is the fact that nuclear weapons remain the greatest deterrent, especially against a vastly superior adversary.
• Korea strengthening nuclear deterrence: In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
• Taiwan and Australia developing nuclear submarine: Taiwan, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force.
• Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.

Threat of escalation to nuclear war

• The threat of escalation to the nuclear level was very much in the mind of NATO’s military planners when the alliance refused to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
• Moscow is also conscious of the fact that there are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France.
• Nuclear sharing arrangement: Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
• Under this framework, European allies host US nuclear weapons on their soil and authorise their armed forces to deliver American nuclear weapons on Russia.
• Nuclear sharing also involves continuous consultations on nuclear doctrine and the planning of nuclear operations.
• The US and its allies are also pursuing a “hybrid war” that boosts Ukrainian resistance against Russian armed forces and raises military, economic, and political costs of Moscow’s aggression.

Threat of China invading Taiwan

• Taiwan is far more important for Asian (and global) security than Ukraine is for Europe.
• Taiwan sits at the heart of the Western Pacific and straddles the sea line of communication in the world’s most dynamic economic arena.
• It is the main source of silicon chips for the world.
• When China conquers Taiwan it will dramatically transform the geopolitics of Asia.
• As Putin becomes more dependent on China, Russia is bound to back Xi Jinping’s ambitions in Asia.
• This is the context in which China’s eastern neighbours are taking a fresh look at the nuclear option.
• Nuclear sharing arrangement: On the nuclear front, the debate in Japan and South Korea is about potential nuclear sharing arrangements with the US.
• In Taiwan and Australia, the emphasis is on developing nuclear-powered submarines.
• Deployment of strategic weapons: The US too is debating the deployment of new strategic weapon systems in Asia that might encourage China to pause before trying to emulate Russia’s Ukraine adventure.

Consider the question ” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to transform the nuclear landscape of Asia. Comment.”

Conclusion

One way or another, Russia’s war in Ukraine is bound to transform the Asian nuclear landscape.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now