What’s the news?

• Recent changes in the Maldives’ leadership have raised questions about the future of its relationship with India.

Central idea

• While leadership changes may bring some alterations, the fundamental ties between the two nations remain intact. From the era of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to the present day, India and the Maldives have maintained a close and friendly relationship, with occasional challenges. Therefore, it’s essential not to rush to judgment regarding the current situation.

Background

• Historical Ties: The relationship between India and the Maldives is deep-rooted. From Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s leadership until today, both nations have maintained a close bond, despite occasional hiccups.
• Geographical Proximity: The Maldives spans 90,000 sq km, mostly covered by the sea, with the remaining land spread across 1,200 islands. Situated just 70 nautical miles away, India has always been the Maldives’ closest ally. As Ibn Khaldun stated, geography is destiny.

Challenges in the Maldives

“Maldives, despite its 98% literacy rate, faces various contradictions that pose challenges to democratic governance.”

• Constitutional Restrictions: The Maldivian constitution bars anyone who isn’t a Sunni Muslim from becoming a citizen. This can be seen as restrictive and exclusive, which may not align with broader principles of democratic governance.
• Nascent Civil Society: The civil society in the Maldives is still emerging. This means the public structures and mechanisms that can hold the government accountable and ensure the active participation of citizens in the governance process might be underdeveloped.
• Drug Abuse: The Maldives has been grappling with an increasing problem of drug abuse, which poses social and health-related challenges.
• Distorted Labor Market: This implies there might be imbalances in employment opportunities, perhaps with certain sectors having too many workers and others having too few, or challenges related to wages and workers’ rights.
• Growing Inequality: Despite its successes in areas like tourism, the Maldives faces growing economic disparities among its population.
• Foreign Influence and Debt: China’s policy of extending debt and subsequently interfering in the internal politics of the Maldives, as well as supporting conservative elements, poses challenges. This not only can lead to a debt crisis but also threatens the democratic progression of the country.
• Legacy of Controlled Regime: The influence of the Gayoom years and the alignment with China by certain elements for narrow gains might not serve the broader interests of the Maldivian nation in the long term.

India’s Role

• Historically: From Buddhism’s prevalence in the Maldives to its dependence on India during the British protectorate era (1887–1965), India has always played an influential role.
• Economically: The State Bank of India has been instrumental in boosting the Maldives’ tourism economy and remains the largest bank there.
• Assistance: Whether during the 1988 coup, the 2004 tsunami, or the 2014 water crisis, India has always been the first to assist. India also supplies essential items in bulk and contributes significantly to the Maldivian education and health sectors.
• Defence and Security: India has been a robust defense partner, conducting joint exercises and providing security assistance.

India’s Concerns Regarding the Maldives

• China’s Growing Influence: China’s increasing role in the Maldives is driven by debt financing. This kind of influence, particularly through debt traps, could lead to the consequent hegemony of China in the region, which is a matter of concern for India given the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region.
• Internal Interference by External Powers: China’s policy of interfering in the internal politics of the Maldives, especially its support for conservative elements, is worrisome for India. This could hinder the development of a robust democracy in the Maldives and potentially impact the bilateral relationship between India and the Maldives.
• Economic Interests: With projects like greater Male connectivity and being a major supplier of essential goods to the Maldives, India has vested economic interests. Any disruption or potential shift in trade relations can impact India’s economic engagement.
• Security and Defense Cooperation: The defense cooperation isn’t just about tangible assets like helicopters but extends to joint exercises, training, and disaster management. Any shift in Maldivian policies that affects this cooperation can be concerning.
• Legacy of Assistance: India’s role as a primary responder to Maldivian crises and its consistent support over the years hold significance. India would be concerned if such efforts and goodwill aren’t recognized or are undermined by external influences.

Recent developments in the Maldives

• President Designate Mohamed Muizzu: Mohamed Muizzu, described as a Western-educated engineer, is expected to take over the reins of leadership. His past roles and his education may influence the Maldives’ direction, both domestically and in terms of foreign relations.
• Former President Yameen’s Situation: Yameen’s shift from jail to house arrest indicates changing political dynamics within the Maldives. Given that Yameen’s tenure was marked by a pro-China policy, any change related to his influence might hint at a shift in foreign policy alignment.

Conclusion

• India’s unwavering commitment has significantly shaped the Maldives, and any impulsive decisions could be detrimental for the latter. Given the deep historical ties and mutual interests, it’s crucial for the new leadership to recognize and value the long-standing bond. As history has often shown, taking relationships for granted can have grave consequences.

Also read:

The Maldives, the evolution of a democracy

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