Central Idea

• The recent tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats signifies a deteriorating phase in India-Canada Relations.

Background of Diplomatic Face-Offs

• India has accused the Canadian government of inadequate action against pro-Khalistan supporters, perceiving it as an attempt to court the Canadian-Sikh community.
• Canada has denied these allegations and called it instead an exercise of Freedom of Speech and Individual Liberty.

Pro-Khalistan stance of Trudeau Govt

• These recent tensions echo a long history of strained relations.
• In 1998, Canada recalled its high commissioner to India following India’s nuclear tests.
• Disagreements began as early as 1948 when Canada supported a plebiscite in Kashmir.

Recent Discord

• Leadership Clashes: Trudeau’s appointment of four Sikhs to his 30-member Cabinet in 2015, boasting more Sikhs than Modi’s ministry, stirred controversy over his proximity to Khalistan sympathizers.
• Diplomatic Incidents: Tensions escalated when then Punjab CM refused to meet Canadian Defence Minister Harjit Singh Sajjan in 2017, accusing him of associating with separatists. Trudeau’s 2018 visit to India received a cool reception, further souring relations.
• Atwal Controversy: India expressed dismay when Jaspal Atwal, convicted of attempting to assassinate an Indian Cabinet minister in 1986, was initially invited to dine with Trudeau during the same visit. The invitation was later rescinded.
• Brief Respite: Relations appeared to improve when Canada mentioned ‘extremism’ and Khalistan in its 2018 ‘Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada.’ Both countries established an anti-terrorism cooperation framework in 2018.
• Reversal: In 2019, Canada removed all mentions of Khalistan and Sikh extremism from the report, drawing criticism from Punjab CM Amarinder Singh, who had provided Trudeau with a list of extremists, including Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Current Perspective: G20 Humiliation 

• Canada’s Viewpoint: Canadian officials assert that their efforts to improve relations with India through trade and commerce are hindered by India’s focus on Khalistan. They argue that the separatist movement is relatively insignificant and that the Khalistan referendums organized by Sikhs for Justice are legal.
• India’s Concerns: During the recent G20 summit, PM Modi conveyed “strong concerns” about “continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements” in Canada.

Historical Roots of Canadian Interference

• Long-standing Connection: Canada’s association with the Khalistan cause dates back. Surjan Singh Gill established the ‘Khalistan government in exile’ office in Vancouver in 1982, even issuing Khalistani passports and currency. However, he garnered limited local Sikh support.
• Militancy’s Impact: Militancy in Punjab during the early 1980s had repercussions in Canada. In 1982, then PM Pierre Trudeau declined to extradite Talwinder Singh Parmar, accused of killing two police officers in Punjab. The Air India Kanishka bombing in 1985, orchestrated by the Babbar Khalsa, led to 331 civilian deaths in Canada’s worst act of terrorism.

Changing Governments and Influences

• Political Fluctuations: The Khalistan movement’s trajectory often mirrors India and the subcontinent’s changing politics. Relations improved during the Vajpayee government, with hints of reconciliation.
• Strong Relations: During Stephen Harper’s tenure as Canadian PM (2006-2015), Canada and India enjoyed strong relations, marked by numerous high-level visits and cooperation.
• Community Influence: With over 7.7 lakh Sikhs in Canada, the Sikh community wields substantial political influence, with 18 Sikh MPs in the Canadian parliament in 2019, surpassing those in India.

Repercussions of the spat

(1) Migration Trends:

• The ongoing tensions and the Khalistan movement have led to a 246% increase in asylum claims by Indian nationals in Canada.
• Experts suggest this may be a tactic employed by immigration agents.

(2) Shift in Interest:

• Interest in the Khalistan movement in Canada has waned, with the issue being less prominent.
• Supporters are often second-generation Canadians influenced by pro-Khalistani social media and music/ rap-culture, rather than direct experiences in Punjab.

(3) Trade and Economy:

• In 2022, the trade between India and Canada exceeded $13.7 billion, making India Canada’s 10th largest two-way merchandise trade partner.
• However, recent developments have led to the pause of trade talks and the cancellation of a planned trade mission to India.

Conclusion

• The complexities surrounding India-Canada relations, exacerbated by the lingering specter of Khalistan, continue to evolve.
• Historical antecedents, political transitions, and diaspora dynamics all contribute to the intricate dance between the two nations.
• While challenges persist, the potential for cooperation remains, provided both countries navigate the path toward common ground with sensitivity and diplomacy.

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