Why in the news? 

• In recent years, India has decreased its reliance on the top arms supplier of Russia from 76% (2009-13) to 36% (2019-23), as per SIPRI, indicating diversification in arms imports.

Context:

• India’s arms imports have marked an eventual shift from Russia to France and the U.S. impacting India’s defensive modernization, regional security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, and global arms trade trends, reshaping geopolitical relationships.

Major shift observed in the volume of exporters to India:

• Increase in France’s Share: France’s share of India’s arms imports surged from 0.9% in 2009-13 to 33% in 2019-23, positioning it as the second-largest supplier.
• Increase in U.S. share: The U.S.’s share of India’s arms imports also rose from 8% to 13% during the same period.

• Focus on Military Modernization: The rise in arms imports reflects India’s ongoing efforts towards military modernization and enhancement of defense capabilities.

How India has climbed to become the world’s biggest arms importer, displacing Saudi Arabia?

• India’s Rise as Largest Arms Importer: India surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the world’s biggest arms importer between 2019 and 2023, with its share in global arms imports increasing from 9.1% to 9.8%. Saudi Arabia’s share of global arms imports decreased from 11% to 8.4% during the same period.
• Emergence of Ukraine: Ukraine, previously a negligible importer, increased its share of global arms imports to 4.9% following the Russian invasion in February 2022.
• Trends in Neighboring Countries: Pakistan’s share in global arms imports rose from 2.9% to 4.3%, while China’s share declined from 4.9% to 2.9%.

How Russia is affected in this scenario?

• Decline in Russia’s Arms Exports: Russia’s share of global arms exports decreased from 21% in 2014-18 to 11% in 2019-23, accompanied by a 52% reduction in volume terms. Russian arms exports remained stable until 2019 but rapidly declined in 2020-2023, with a 74% decrease in volume by 2023 compared to 2019.
  • Impact on Russia’s Arms Industry: The decline in Russia’s arms exports suggests potential challenges for its arms industry, including decreased revenue and market share.
  • Decrease in Number of Recipient Nations: Russia supplied arms to 31 nations in 2019, which decreased to 12 by 2023, indicating a reduction in its arms export footprint.
• U.S. Consolidation as Top Exporter: The U.S. increased its share in global arms exports from 34% to 42% during the same period, consolidating its position as the leading arms exporter. The U.S.’s increased share in global arms exports underscores its dominance in the arms market and its ability to expand its influence worldwide.

How India is affected in this scenario?

• Diversification of Arms Suppliers: India’s reduced dependence on Russia indicates a diversification strategy, reducing vulnerability to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
• Strengthened Defense Partnerships: Increased arms imports from France and the U.S. suggest enhanced defense partnerships, potentially leading to technology transfers, joint ventures, and co-development projects.
• Modernization of Armed Forces: Importing a diverse range of weapons and equipment from multiple suppliers enhances the modernization efforts of India’s armed forces, improving operational capabilities and readiness.
• Technological Advancements: Collaboration with advanced arms exporters like France and the U.S. may facilitate access to cutting-edge technologies, fostering indigenous defense production capabilities and innovation.

What are the implications on Indo-Pacific region?

• Impact on Regional Dynamics: The shift in India’s arms imports could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, potentially prompting other countries to reassess their defense strategies and alliances.
  • Increased arms imports from France and the United States may signal India’s intention to diversify its defense partnerships and capabilities, potentially contributing to regional stability by reducing dependence on a single supplier.
• Western Tilt: Diversifying arms imports could reach it with Western defense systems, potentially bolstering its role as a key player in the Indo-Pacific region’s security architecture.
• China Factor: This may aim at countering China’s growing military assertiveness in the region. This could lead to increased competition and tensions between the two countries.
• Russia’s Influence: The reduction in India’s arms imports from Russia may diminish Russia’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Conclusion

• India’s decreasing reliance on Russian arms, increased imports from France and the U.S., and diversification of suppliers reshape regional security dynamics have more evolving dynamics in Global geopolitics considering recent moves of Russia in its defence and military policies.

Mains PYQs:

What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (2020)

Practice Questions for Mains:

Q- How has India’s decreasing reliance on Russian arms and increasing imports from France and the U.S. reshaped regional security dynamics and global arms trade trends?

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now