Central Idea

• India’s year-long presidency of the G-20 and leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) should not create unrealistic expectations about the dividends India can reap from these summits. The current geopolitical climate is characterized by a high level of distrust and tensions running high and the threat of conflict looming large. The need for India is to proceed with caution during its presidency.

Overview of the current geopolitical climate

• Tensions and distrust between the US-led camp and China/Russia-led camp pose a threat of global conflict.
• China is on a major diplomatic-cum-strategic offensive across Asia, particularly in West Asia, and is flexing its naval and military muscle in the East and Southeast Asian seas.
• India is facing challenges due to China’s offensive and its efforts to widen the arc of conflict with India.
• The situation in Ukraine is fraught, with the US and its allies providing advanced weaponry and training to Ukrainian troops, while Russia is receiving support from its allies.
• India’s ties with Russia are not necessarily anchored in defense cooperation, and India is looking more to the West, especially the US, for state-of-the-art weaponry.
• India needs to proceed with caution while holding the presidency of the G-20 and the SCO and balance the contradictory demands of the two institutions and the Global South.

Reasons for the distrust between the two camps; United States and China/Russia

• Economic competition: The US and China are in a race for economic and technological supremacy, with both countries vying for dominance in fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and cybersecurity. This has led to tensions between the two countries.
• Military competition: The US and China are also in a race for military supremacy, with both countries investing heavily in their armed forces and developing advanced weapons systems. This has led to concerns about a potential arms race between the two countries.
• Territorial disputes: China has territorial disputes with several countries in the region, including India, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. This has led to tensions and concerns about China’s expansionist policies.
• Human rights issues: The US and other Western countries have criticized China and Russia for their human rights records, including issues such as the treatment of Uighur Muslims in China and the treatment of political dissidents in Russia. This has led to tensions between these countries and the West.
• Political influence: The US has accused China and Russia of attempting to interfere in its political processes, including the 2016 US presidential election. This has led to concerns about the countries’ intentions and their influence in other countries.
• Strategic competition: The US and China/Russia have differing visions for the international order, which has led to strategic competition and tensions between them. The US seeks to uphold the current order, while China and Russia seek to challenge it and establish a new order that reflects their interests and values.
• COVID-19 pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated tensions between the US and China, with both countries blaming each other for the outbreak and its spread.

Issues for India specifically with China

• Border disputes: India and China have long-standing border disputes, which have led to multiple conflicts over the years. The recent clashes in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 resulted in the deaths of Indian and Chinese soldiers and have further escalated tensions between the two countries.
• China’s aggressive behavior: China’s assertive stance and expansionist policies in the South and East China Seas, as well as its attempts to limit India’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region, have led to tensions between the two countries.
• China’s regional initiatives: China’s regional initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum are of concern to India as they may limit India’s strategic and economic interests in the region.
• The Quad: China sees India’s partnership in the Quad (an informal strategic grouping of India, Australia, Japan, and the US) as a threat to its regional ambitions, and has openly criticized the grouping.
• Cyber warfare and hybrid tactics: India is also concerned about China’s ability to engage in cyber warfare and hybrid tactics, including the adoption of cyber tactics and the ‘politics of water’ by re-directing the Himalayan rivers.

Other turmoil’s in India’s immediate neighborhood

• Afghanistan: The situation in Afghanistan appears to be steadily worsening and is now beginning to affect nations on its periphery. India has lost all traction with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan: The relations between India and Pakistan are strained due to various reasons, including cross-border terrorism.
• Sri Lanka: The political situation in Sri Lanka has been unstable in recent years, and it has caused concerns for India.
• Nepal: The political situation in Nepal has been unstable in recent years, with frequent changes in government and disagreements over the new constitution. India has also had strained relations with Nepal over various issues, including border disputes.
• Myanmar: The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 has led to widespread protests and violence, causing concerns for India’s security in its Northeast region as well as affecting India’s strategic interests in the region.

Way ahead

• Identifying commonalities: India should focus on identifying areas of commonality between the G-20, the SCO, and the Global South, such as sustainable development, climate change, and economic cooperation, and work towards promoting these goals in each forum.
• Prioritizing issues: India should prioritize the issues that are most important to its national interests, such as regional security and economic development, and work towards finding solutions that are mutually acceptable to all parties.
• Engaging with all parties: India should engage with all parties in each forum, including the major powers, to ensure that its voice is heard and its interests are taken into account.
• Building coalitions: India should work towards building coalitions with like-minded countries within each forum, such as other developing countries, to promote its interests and priorities.
• Developing strategic partnerships: India should develop strategic partnerships with key players in each forum, such as China and Russia in the SCO, to promote regional stability and cooperation.

Conclusion

• India needs to be aware of the persisting challenges it faces, tone down the high expectations being generated of reaping a rich dividend from helming the G-20 and the SCO, and proceed with caution. It must chart a course that balances the contradictory demands of the G-20 and the SCO and even more so that of the Global South. India should not claim to have attained its goal of being a global power, as there are many obstacles that have to be overcome before India can achieve its predetermined goal.

Mains Question

Q. The current geopolitical climate is characterized by a high level of distrust and tensions running high and the threat of conflict looming large. In light of this discuss the issues for India specifically with China and how other turmoil’s in immediate neighborhood compounding the problems for India.

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