Introduction

Recent events have thrust the relationship between Iran and Pakistan into the spotlight, with missile strikes, drone attacks, and territorial disputes escalating tensions between the two neighboring nations.
In this comprehensive analysis, we examine the historical context, evolving dynamics, and broader implications of the Iran-Pakistan relationship.

Iran-Pakistan: Historical Background

Alliance and CENTO: Before Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, both countries were aligned with the United States and were part of the Baghdad Pact (later CENTO), a military alliance modeled on NATO.
Support During Wars: Iran provided material and weapons support to Pakistan during its wars against India in 1965 and 1971.

Sectarian Divide: After Ayatollah Khomeini’s Shiite regime took power in Iran, Pakistan, a Sunni-majority nation, found itself at odds with Iran due to sectarian differences.
Geopolitical Differences: Differences emerged as Iran became a sworn enemy of the United States after 1979, while Pakistan drew closer to the U.S., particularly during the “War on Terror” post-9/11.
Focus on Exporting Revolution: Iran’s foreign policy, centred on exporting the Islamic revolution, made its Arab neighbours uneasy, leading to a divergence in regional priorities.
Opposite Sides in Afghanistan: Iran backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in Afghanistan, a group created with Pakistan’s support, leading to further tensions.

1995: Benazir Bhutto’s Visit: Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto referred to Iran as “a friend, a neighbor, and a brother in Islam” during her visit to Tehran in 1995, emphasizing cooperation and regretting U.S. sanctions.
Zardari’s Era: Asif Ali Zardari’s presidency saw increased cooperation with Iran, particularly in trade and energy, though Sunni-Shiite tensions persisted.
Nawaz Sharif’s Shift: Nawaz Sharif, upon becoming Prime Minister in 2013, realigned Pakistan’s stance away from Iran, strengthening ties with Arab allies and leaving the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project incomplete.

Shared Ethnicity: The Baloch population, living on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, shares deep cultural, ethnic, and linguistic ties.
Marginalization and Grievances: Baloch communities in both nations have been marginalized, leading to separatist movements.
Cross-Border Insurgency: Baloch insurgents operate across the porous border, targeting military and civilian targets, complicating relations.
Differences in Insurgent Groups: Baloch insurgents in Iran often have religious affiliations, while those in Pakistan lean towards secular ethno-nationalism.

Regional Power Dynamics: The involvement of Arabs, Israelis, and Iranians in the Balochistan issue reflects broader regional power politics.
Strategic Significance: Balochistan’s location at the mouth of the Gulf makes it integral to geopolitical strategies, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Balancing Act: India’s involvement in Iran and the Chabahar port development, seen as a counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, adds to regional complexities.
Middle East Policy Shift: India’s economic and security interests in the Middle East are prompting a shift in its traditionally neutral stance towards regional conflicts.

The recent cross-border strikes and tensions between Iran and Pakistan underscore the fragility of their relationship, complicated by historical, sectarian, and geopolitical factors.
While both nations are likely to seek de-escalation, the Balochistan issue, regional power dynamics, and India’s evolving role in the Middle East are challenging established assumptions about security in the region.
As the Gulf’s conflicts spill into the Baloch frontier, a weakened Pakistan may find itself increasingly entangled in the Middle East’s widening conflict theatre, demanding a reevaluation of India’s regional strategies.