Context

• A week after the clash in Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, convening of the 17th round of India-China corps commander-level talks at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point in eastern Ladakh is a positive development. But unfortunately, it does not inspire confidence about Chinese intentions vis a vis the Line of Actual Control.

 Background

• Disengagement at Gogra Hot springs in last round of talks: The last round of talks was held in July, and in September, the government announced that the two sides had finished disengaging at Gogra Hot Springs, as had been agreed in the 16th round.
• Beijing reluctant for further rounds of talks: Beijing appeared reluctant to accede to Delhi’s push for another round,
• No return to the status quo: China signals that there is nothing more to discuss about the situation in eastern Ladakh, and certainly not a return to the status quo that existed before its incursions in April-May 2020.

What is outcome of the latest round of talks and the current status?

• No mutually acceptable resolution on remaining issues: A joint statement that the two sides agreed to keep talking through military and diplomatic channels toward a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest suggests that there was no outcome from this round. It is also not clear if the remaining issues have been agreed upon by both sides.
• India facing an altered status quo: Apart from the fact that India now faces an altered status quo and that the PLA is rapidly building war-like infrastructure on its side, for India, the remaining issues are the presence of Chinese troops in the Depsang plains, and intrusions in the Demchok area.
• Tensions seems manageable but situation is unpredictable: The sector-wise compartmentalisation makes the tensions seem manageable, but the reality appears to be that there is no predicting which part of the 3,500 km of the line will flare up suddenly, as it did recently.
• Situation is very serious: Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar flagged the seriousness of the situation when he told Parliament that the Indian deployment at the LAC is at its highest level.
• Despite the advanced surveillance, no clarity on Army’s preparedness: From the short statement by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, it is unclear how prepared the Army was for the transgression at Tawang, despite the advanced Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance devices that have reportedly been installed in that area.

Why China has opened new front in Tawang?

• Status quo along the boundary not only limited to the Western Sector: China has traditionally been active in areas close to Ladakh given the significance of the Xinjiang-Tibet region in its domestic narrative. However, with its sights on an ageing Dalai Lama, and the issue of his succession, Beijing will want to bring into focus its claims on Tawang, and the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
• Huge investment in infrastructure in eastern sector: China has invested in infrastructure in the Eastern Sector over many years. This includes rail, road, and air connectivity, better telecommunications, as well as improved capacity to station and supply troops and artillery.
• Centrality of the boundary issue in the India-China relationship: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has repeatedly asserted that it is no longer possible to separate the boundary question from the overall relationship and that peace and tranquillity on the LAC is the key to restoring relations. However, China is likely to keep up the pressure on the ground along the LAC, even as they continue to suggest that the two countries look beyond the differences, much like Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s comments during his March 2022 visit when he claimed that the two sides need to “inject more positive energy” into the relationship.

Way ahead

• Delhi should make a push for talks at the diplomatic level even as it ramps up military preparedness.
• Whatever the facts on the ground and regardless of how the tensions will unfold, the government would be well advised to take the Opposition parties into confidence at the earliest.
• A wide political consensus is what the country needs when confronted with tensions at the borders and it is the government’s task and responsibility to build it.

Conclusion

• Delhi should make a push for talks at the diplomatic level even as it ramps up military preparedness. Whatever the facts on the ground and regardless of how the tensions will unfold, the government should take the Opposition parties into confidence at the earliest. A wide political consensus is what the country needs when confronted with tensions at the borders

Mains Question

Q. China has opened new front in the eastern sector. Even after the commander level talks multiple times, frictions between the two continues at LAC. Discuss.

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