Central Idea

Recent data from the agriculture ministry has revealed that India achieved record-high food production in the 2022-23 fiscal year.
However, this surge in production appears to be at odds with the government’s decision to restrict the export of key staples like wheat and rice, as well as the persistent trend of rising food inflation.

Food Production Statistics

Record-High Food Production: The agriculture ministry estimates food production for 2022-23 at a historic 329.7 million tonnes, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year.
Cereal Production: Major cereal production, including rice and wheat, rose by 4.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Coarse grain production surged by 12%, while pulses production experienced a 4.4% year-on-year decline but remained 6% higher than the five-year average.
Challenges Faced: These estimations were made despite adverse conditions such as subpar monsoons affecting rice output and late rains causing damage during crop harvesting.

Export Curbs: In September 2022, India imposed export curbs on broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on certain varieties due to expected domestic production challenges. These curbs have since intensified.
Wheat Export Ban: Last year, a miscalculation of wheat harvest, primarily due to a heatwave, led to export bans in May 2022, despite promises to bridge global supply gaps after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Rising Food Prices: Despite record production and export restrictions, retail prices for cereals have continued to surge. Wheat and rice prices have been in double digits, with consumer cereal prices up by 11% year-on-year, and pulses registering a 16.4% increase. As of October 21, retail prices for rice and wheat flour were 12.7% and 5% higher year-on-year, respectively.

Kharif Production Estimate: The first advance estimate for kharif production, typically released in September, is yet to be published. This year’s monsoon, with the lowest rainfall in five years and uneven distribution, is expected to impact rice production, the main kharif crop.
Pulses and Oilseeds: Additionally, reduced rainfall in several states may affect pulses and oilseeds production. Retail prices for specific pulse varieties like tur (pigeon peas) have already surged by 38% compared to the previous year.

Reliability of Data: National crop yield estimates rely on crop-cutting experiments conducted by state revenue and agriculture departments, raising concerns about the accuracy of data collection, particularly in understaffed state departments.
Remote Sensing: India is using remote sensing to cross-verify the data, yet reliability remains a challenge, especially for crops with multiple harvests.
Horticulture Crops: Estimating yield for horticulture crops, which are harvested in stages, is even more complex than for food grains.

India’s agricultural landscape presents a perplexing scenario with record-high food production, export restrictions, and stubborn food inflation.
The government’s efforts to stabilize prices through export curbs have not yielded the expected results.
As India navigates the complexities of its agricultural sector, it must address the discrepancies in data collection and explore innovative approaches to ensure accurate estimates and sustainable food security.