Central Idea

The Maldives’ presidential election run-off is set to “safeguard the country’s independence and sovereignty” amidst strong ties with India.
In addition to the presidential election, Maldivians will vote in a referendum next month to decide whether to switch to a parliamentary system of governance.

Key Points and Geopolitical Significance

French-Style System: The Maldivian electoral system resembles France’s, requiring a candidate to secure over 50% of votes for victory. A runoff occurs if no candidate surpasses this threshold in the first round, with the top two candidates competing.

Executive Presidency: The Maldives adopted the Executive Presidency in 1968. Initially, it operated as a single-party system until 2008 when political reforms led to a multi-party system.
Abdul Gayoom’s Era: Maumoon Abdul Gayoom served as President for 30 years, from 1978 to 2008, during which he faced political protests and thwarted a coup attempt with India’s assistance in 1988.
Political Reforms: In 2004, Gayoom initiated political reforms, leading to the registration of political parties in 2005 and the adoption of a new Constitution in 2008, enabling presidential elections every five years.

Mixed Relations: India’s engagement with Maldivian politics has seen fluctuations. President Solih’s government has had the most favourable relations with India thus far.
Gayoom and Nasheed Eras: India closely worked with Abdul Gayoom for three decades. When Nasheed assumed power in 2008, India supported his government initially. However, Nasheed later leaned toward China, cancelling a major infrastructure project with India in 2012.
Yameen’s Pro-China Stance: Abdulla Yameen, who took office in 2013, pursued a pro-China foreign policy, including joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India’s reluctance to provide loans due to human rights concerns led Yameen to turn to Beijing.
Solih’s Election: President Solih’s victory in the 2018 elections was a relief for India, signifying a shift in bilateral relations. PM Modi attended Solih’s swearing-in ceremony.
Stronger Ties: India provided rapid assistance, including vaccines, during the COVID-19 pandemic, further strengthening relations. Bilateral projects in Maldives have multiplied, and defense cooperation has expanded, with India training Maldivian security personnel and providing military equipment.

Solih’s Challengers: President Solih is facing competition from Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu, who emerged as the consensus candidate after former President Abdulla Yameen’s disqualification.
Proxy for Yameen: Muizzu is seen as a proxy for Yameen and has made statements raising concerns for India. He has threatened to terminate agreements with foreign countries and withdraw Indian troops stationed in the Maldives.
Low Turnout: The election has seen a lower voter turnout compared to previous ones, with 79% participation in the first round. This low turnout is a concern in the context of Maldives’ democratic transition.

China’s Influence: Under President Abdulla Yameen’s rule from 2013 to 2017, the Maldives aligned with China, participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (i.e. String of Pearls) and receiving substantial loans, including funding for major infrastructure projects.
India’s Concern: India has a keen interest in maintaining influence in its “backyard” in the Indian Ocean and keeping Chinese influence at bay. India has invested heavily in Maldivian infrastructure and deepened security cooperation, which has raised concerns of establishing a strategic military presence.
Western Nations’ Watchful Eye: Western nations, including the US, UK, and Australia, are closely monitoring the election as part of their efforts to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The opening of embassies by these countries in the Maldives underscores its strategic significance.

Geopolitical Implications: The Maldivian presidential runoff and the country’s relationship with India and China hold significant geopolitical implications. The outcome will shape the nation’s foreign policy direction.
India’s Interests: India’s interests in Maldives include defense cooperation, economic partnerships, and maintaining regional stability. The election’s result will be closely monitored to assess its impact on these interests and the future trajectory of Maldives’ foreign relations.